Seems there’s been a flurry of activity in this thread due to the recent price drop. Maybe I can share my humble opinion with those who are new to PM and are looking to invest in it.
Those who are new PM investors will benefit from the price drop. I myself (and I’m sure others more lao jiao in this forum) started stacking when GST was still charged (ouch haha). Some may have started in year 2011 (double ouch). I buy for long term because I believe the fundamentals have not changed. Gold spot is affected by the futures market for now, so the price is prone to manipulation. If I’m not wrong, the plunge began 1 to 2 days after GS gave its damning verdict on gold’s value as an inflation hedge (against QE) and supposedly “improving” economic statistics.
Nonetheless, those looking to enter now just be careful. Short term technicals are bearish. Gold hit its 200 week MA resistance of about 1438 (or 1435 if you want a rough estimate) before closing in the 1420+. If you want to paper trade then I guess the volatility will whet your appetite, if your heart can take the skipping of a few heart beats. The bears are still roaming and may try to test the market again. There has been “1-2%” intra-day shorts even after the plunge so some are speculating that the bears may be testing the market depth and preparing to take another huge short position. Another break down below 1400 will see a support at 1350 and then 1320. If it goes below 1320, gold may end up at around 1150 to 1200, then some big bulls (aka central banks, hedge funds and investors like Jim Rogers) could probably emerge and take some long positions. Silver is even more volatile, so know your risk tolerance and set price targets before going in or out. Silver seems unable to break resistance at 23.50, if it closes below 22.70 then it may still drop. IIRC, it hit an intra-day low of 22 last Tues.
Alternatively, if gold breaks above 1435, then the next key resistance is 1520. If it fails that level (about 50% retracement??), then the bears may come roaring back. Maybe TA experts can enlighten me on this.
Understand that since gold and silver are still pegged to the US dollar, you are also exposed to currency risk. That is one of the reasons why people also shun buying PMs. Another reason is that you may have to spend on perhaps a safe deposit box to store them when they do not provide cashflow like dividends from stocks and reits. Know the reason for buying PMs because if the fundamentals change, then you will be standing on the wrong side. If you are in for the long term, do not look at small price fluctuations, 1 to 2% is really not a big change. When price sky rockets, then you can take some profit by selling a portion to invest in other undervalued assets. I believe holding PMs for the long term does not ultimately mean your whole life. To me, selling PMs mean that either fundamentals have taken a 180 degree turn, or market turmoil result in other undervalued assets being identified that have better fundamentals, provide better returns or hedge than PMs. As of now, I believe gold is undervalued.
My advice if you are an investor is to examine the fundamentals, and if you feel the fundamentals are good (which I feel it still is), stack physical in small numbers but do not go “all in” so that you still have bullets if the price drops further for you to do DCA. I myself accumulated a little at my price target of 1350 and silver at 23 last week. The next point of accumulation should be in the low 12XX range if the price goes downhill. Some prefer the low cost and liquidity of ETFs like the GLD or use CFDs, as for me I prefer to be able to hold and touch the physical with my own hands.
If you want to trade or speculate, do it on paper gold instead of physical. Physical is for the long term and the spread is greater because when you buy from dealers they add in other charges (eg. commission, transportation, etc.). I remember reading somewhere that some gold put options are expiring soon (sometime later this week?) so the bears may try to force the price down to be in the money. You can anticipate that gold and silver prices to drop these few days.
However, physical bullion demand remains high (around the world) and stocks are depleting. Limited short term supply may drive up gold futures if miners cut down on operations.
As I type this post, gold is down 1.3% and silver down 2.5% from previous day close.