2020 market expectations and positioning

[Hello_Kitty]

Fed is pre-empting. They know that if they do not do anything now, they may be deemed to be behind the curve even if they deliver an outsize cut later on. Powell acknowledge that the cut is not a solution but I guess it ticks several boxes - their hand would be forced later and they would have an angry trump blaming them even more. So I do not think that the cut was aimed at the stock market but rather to try blunt the blow of a slowdown that may be coming.

but today Futures are gap up!

 

[Majestic12]

Fed is pre-empting. They know that if they do not do anything now, they may be deemed to be behind the curve even if they deliver an outsize cut later on. Powell acknowledge that the cut is not a solution but I guess it ticks several boxes - their hand would be forced later and they would have an angry trump blaming them even more. So I do not think that the cut was aimed at the stock market but rather to try blunt the blow of a slowdown that may be coming.

The market’s reaction last night said it all.

As much as the Fed wants to telegraph that it is omniscient, it is not. It’s now a matter of damage control and political hedging: “we’ve already reduced rates to zero to be accommodative. If the markets still tank, it’s not our fault.”

 

[Hello_Kitty]

The market’s reaction last night said it all.

As much as the Fed wants to telegraph that it is omniscient, it is not. It’s now a matter of damage control and political hedging: “we’ve already reduced rates to zero to be accommodative. If the markets still tank, it’s not our fault.”

market is not tanking. Futures up 450 points!

 

[coolhead]

Fed is pre-empting. They know that if they do not do anything now, they may be deemed to be behind the curve even if they deliver an outsize cut later on. Powell acknowledge that the cut is not a solution but I guess it ticks several boxes - their hand would be forced later and they would have an angry trump blaming them even more. So I do not think that the cut was aimed at the stock market but rather to try blunt the blow of a slowdown that may be coming.

imo, the cut was under political duress. Powell has and always been able to sufficiently explain (even though it was mostly bull) with abit of credibility about the need to lower rate. past examples include to raise inflation, mid-market temporary adjustment etc.
The inter meeting rate cut just didn't make sense. it reeks of no political backbone to me.

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[Newbyib]

market is not tanking. Futures up 450 points!

It’s the reaction to the Super Tuesday DNC primary with the reduced odds of Bernie Sanders. Lol.

 

[Newbyib]

MBH & ABF haven't really gone up today, inspite of the US rate cut. Why?

Are these bond funds or bond ETFs? Bond funds prices are delayed valuation?
It’s strange as I am having a boost in my corporate bonds price and TLT , TLH have also risen - so it’s strange that your bond funds are not moving.

 

[DukeCS33]

market is not tanking. Futures up 450 points!

Futures today will react to other factors today. Last night's reaction to fed cuts was telling enough. In any case, wait till market opens. Premarket futures do not predict the night's session

 

[Kapish]

i think the market will rip higher without tanking with biden leading the primary

 

[wutawa]

I also waiting

If got 18.88, will really unload lol

Well, i panic sold my mapletree log tr and frasers log. I hope i can endure not buying anything this mth (except if dbs $18.88 ).

 

[commie_rick]

I just bought some DBS and UOB shares

Oh well

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The price went down after you bought

Song boh?

 

[h.y.o.m]

Fed is pre-empting. They know that if they do not do anything now, they may be deemed to be behind the curve even if they deliver an outsize cut later on. Powell acknowledge that the cut is not a solution but I guess it ticks several boxes - their hand would be forced later and they would have an angry trump blaming them even more. So I do not think that the cut was aimed at the stock market but rather to try blunt the blow of a slowdown that may be coming.

Then the Fed may have over-preempted based on market's reaction to the rate cut last night. They could have done the rate cut 2 weeks later on the scheduled Fed meeting. Yet, they can't even wait 2 weeks. This made the Fed look desperate. People got worried and is asking "Do they know something we don't? Better sell first." Hence, the market reaction last night.

 

[netzach]

Damn auspicious numbers.
I like!!

bought DBS at 23.88! remember when buying DBS, the last 2 digits of the buy price should be '88'. Just like the CEO!

गगनरोमन्थ HardwareZone Forums app

 

[ocs_woodlands]

there is a divergence between what the Dow futures are telling us and what the 10 year bond yields are telling us... .

I believe the bond yields

 

[Trader11]

Then the Fed may have over-preempted based on market's reaction to the rate cut last night. They could have done the rate cut 2 weeks later on the scheduled Fed meeting. Yet, they can't even wait 2 weeks. This made the Fed look desperate. People got worried and is asking "Do they know something we don't? Better sell first." Hence, the market reaction last night.

Yes yes yes... But it is cheaper for the repo market to punt now..... I expect volatility

 

[DukeCS33]

there is a divergence between what the Dow futures are telling us and what the 10 year bond yields are telling us... .

I believe the bond yields

The bond market is the professionals' market. In any case, it's premarket futures and not predictive of the market.

 

[MrHighlander]

It actually went up

But just a bit, a few cents

The price went down after you bought

Song boh?

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[Majestic12]

market is not tanking. Futures up 450 points!

One day does not change the global macro outlook. You getting too desperate for the market to soar?

 

[revhappy]

Are these bond funds or bond ETFs? Bond funds prices are delayed valuation?
It’s strange as I am having a boost in my corporate bonds price and TLT , TLH have also risen - so it’s strange that your bond funds are not moving.

These are Singapore bond ETFs. I guess, US bond ETFs shot up. SG ones left behind.

 

[havetheveryfun]

One day does not change the global macro outlook. You getting too desperate for the market to soar?

we need to see some of the companies that make up the Dow Jones index or other indexes..

Companies like 3M, P&G and Pfizer might be in a position to gain from this outbreak..

Companies like Microsoft, Cisco, Walmart, IBM, Intel may not be as affected as much.. Apple maybe also..

Then in S&P you have Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet,Netflix etc.. all these benefit from ppl staying at home and not going out during the outbreak..

so, it is actually not all that doom and gloom for the US markets even if the virus does indeed get worse

 

[coolhead]

we need to see some of the companies that make up the Dow Jones index or other indexes..

Companies like 3M, P&G and Pfizer might be in a position to gain from this outbreak..

Companies like Microsoft, Cisco, Walmart, IBM, Intel may not be as affected as much.. Apple maybe also..

Then in S&P you have Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet,Netflix etc.. all these benefit from ppl staying at home and not going out during the outbreak..

so, it is actually not all that doom and gloom for the US markets even if the virus does indeed get worse

while indeed this is true, the concern is about broad market selldown. but yeh i agree with you about those...

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