SIA 5-year retail bonds

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,037
Reaction score
4,573
Temasek owed 55% of SIA. For the bondholder to take hit, mean Temasek 55% stake going to be wiped out first. Do you think Temasek will let the 55% stake in SIA be wiped out?
It's not a question of "letting." SQ's business results are whatever they are, and they're obviously not good right now. The "mighty Temasek" cannot change that basic fact or any other basic business reality.

SIA is a viable business.
Somebody will fly passengers in the future. It doesn't necessarily have to be SQ and its affiliates as currently organized.

It is only unlucky that this rare event happened.
I wouldn't say that. New viruses are not rare, and the world has had lots of test runs: SARS, MERS, Ebola, etc. Airlines know how this works, how their business can be seriously disrupted, and how financially resilient they must be to weather such storms. And yet there were airlines paying generous dividends and aggressively buying back their shares instead of building up reserves.

I believe bondholder will be spared but i am not very sure about SIA shareholder. Shareholder will be the one taking alot of the hit instead of the bondholder...
Bondholders rank above shareholders, yes.
 

Newbyib

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 18, 2019
Messages
678
Reaction score
180
It won't.


Relatively. Singapore Airlines has some pretty good assets available for liquidation, although they're worth a lot less at this instant than they were even a few weeks ago.
I refer to capital: They have in excess of 2x capital to debt and about 3 plus to 4x asset to debt. I think their burnt rate for 1 year will still not touch the capital level needed to pay off the debts if they control cost properly. Temasek will never liquidate because there are more value in selling then liquidating early. But how they want to inject capital and the terms for the injection whether loans, bond placement or share placement and if they will want to penalise bond holders as well remains to be seen. I don’t expect rights issue if going is still bad. SIA just need to ride over this rough patch, it should still be viable once the crisis is over.
 

eAtNeAt

High Supremacy Member
Joined
May 21, 2011
Messages
39,304
Reaction score
4,265
Hsk say sia is strategic asset will never let it fail. Can load up on the bond? Lol. Now trading at 90? Yield is very good.
 

whizzard

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 26, 2001
Messages
970
Reaction score
3
ROFL, if you are not going to say anything, then you might as well just maintain your silence. There is no need for you to come here and pretend that you have some secret method (or information) that can divine SIA's credit rating.

Indeed, if you are just comparing similar yields it is not even difficult to find comparable bonds with published credit ratings :s22:

And your assessment of SIA vis-a-vis SMRT is quite off-the-mark. SMRT provides transportation for millions of Singaporeans to get to work everyday. And there is no alternative to it. If it goes down, the entire country will be paralyzed. We can't just all be taking buses and taxis. But how about SIA? You mean Singaporeans can only take SIA flights? :s13: Of course not. Even if SIA goes down (like NOL), and I hope it doesn't, you can still take one of the many, many airlines that land at changi airport.

Nonethess, the current probability of default by SIA is low by most standards.

My assessment is spot on. I trust you now know the importance of SIA to Singapore .....


SINGAPORE - Singapore Airlines (SIA) is considering corporate action supported by Temasek Holdings, amid the current coronavirus outbreak, Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat said on Thursday (March 26).

"I welcome Temasek's decision to lend support to SIA. SIA is an outstanding airline and strategic asset for Singapore," Mr Heng told Parliament on Thursday when he unveiled the Resilience Budget to provide a second round of measures to help firms and individuals affected by Covid-19.

"Through the government support for the aviation sector, and if necessary more direct support measures, we will make sure that SIA is able to come through this in good shape," he said.

Mr Heng added: "The SIA group sits at the heart of our aviation system and anchors our position as an air hub. In 2019, SIA accounted for over half of passenger traffic and cargo tonnage in Singapore.

"As the main hub carrier, SIA links us to the rest of the world. Many foreign airlines choose to come to Changi because they can tap on SIA's connectivity to the rest of the region."

He said: "A diminished SIA will undermine our air hub's ability to recover from the crisis. Air travel will eventually resume when Covid-19 comes under control. Until then, SIA will need liquidity to tide over this outbreak."

In this regard, SIA will benefit from the enhanced Jobs Support Scheme and the enhanced Aviation Support Package which will help reduce its operating expenditure, he said.

The airline has announced that it will slash 96 per cent of its capacity as countries, including Singapore, tighten their borders.

Analysts have suggested that SIA could receive support in the form of a working capital loan or subsidies.

SIA called for a rare trading halt pending an announcement on Thursday morning, days after it said it would ground almost its entire fleet and seek more financing as it grapples with the coronavirus pandemic.
 

Newbyib

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 18, 2019
Messages
678
Reaction score
180
Hsk say sia is strategic asset will never let it fail. Can load up on the bond? Lol. Now trading at 90? Yield is very good.

Tempting but I think no more chance tomorrow. I was thinking who are the other fellas on the other side of the trade and what is their trade plan.
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,037
Reaction score
4,573
Hsk say sia is strategic asset will never let it fail.
He didn't say that. And he certainly did not say that the government would protect Singapore Airlines stock and bond holders no matter what. (It won't. As I'm about to describe as a "best guess.")

Here's all we know so far from Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat: "I've been informed that SIA is considering a corporate action, supported by Temasek Holdings, and will be making an announcement in due course."

A "corporate action" could mean for example that Singapore Airlines plans to issue more common shares, or preferred shares, to Temasek in consideration of a cash injection. Temasek would thus increase its equity stake in Singapore Airlines, which would in turn dilute the publicly traded common shares (make them each worth less, ceteris paribus) -- including Temasek's own existing shares. (Although obviously the net effect is that Temasek would own a bigger percentage.) Since Temasek is one of Singapore's sovereign wealth funds, effectively this sort of maneuver would be a partial nationalization of Singapore Airlines. Or there could be some other corporate action, but this sort of action is the one that immediately comes to mind as likely.

The government also announced that it'll be covering 75% of the payroll of Singapore Airlines and certain other aviation entities, up to median (75% of S$4,600/month, or up to S$3,450 per month) through October, 2020, for everyone kept on payroll. That's pretty huge. There are also lots of rebates on airport fees and that sort of thing.
 
Last edited:

theMKR

Banned
Joined
Nov 3, 2016
Messages
70,993
Reaction score
13,608
He didn't say that. And he certainly did not say that the government would protect Singapore Airlines stock and bond holders no matter what. (It won't. As I'm about to describe as a "best guess.")

Here's all we know so far from Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat: "I've been informed that SIA is considering a corporate action, supported by Temasek Holdings, and will be making an announcement in due course."

A "corporate action" could mean for example that Singapore Airlines plans to issue more common shares, or preferred shares, to Temasek in consideration of a cash injection. Temasek would thus increase its equity stake in Singapore Airlines, which would in turn dilute the publicly traded common shares (make them each worth less, ceteris paribus) -- including Temasek's own existing shares. (Although obviously the net effect is that Temasek would own a bigger percentage.) Since Temasek is one of Singapore's sovereign wealth funds, effectively this sort of maneuver would be a partial nationalization of Singapore Airlines. Or there could be some other corporate action, but this sort of action is the one that immediately comes to mind as likely.

The government also announced that it'll be covering 75% of the payroll of Singapore Airlines and certain other aviation entities, up to median (75% of S$4,600/month, or up to S$3,450 per month) through October, 2020, for everyone kept on payroll. That's pretty huge. There are also lots of rebates on airport fees and that sort of thing.

End of the day, work in PS, CS, stat board, GLC still the best
 
Joined
Sep 30, 2013
Messages
385
Reaction score
2
My assessment is spot on. I trust you now know the importance of SIA to Singapore .....


SINGAPORE - Singapore Airlines (SIA) is considering corporate action supported by Temasek Holdings, amid the current coronavirus outbreak, Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat said on Thursday (March 26).

"I welcome Temasek's decision to lend support to SIA. SIA is an outstanding airline and strategic asset for Singapore," Mr Heng told Parliament on Thursday when he unveiled the Resilience Budget to provide a second round of measures to help firms and individuals affected by Covid-19.

"Through the government support for the aviation sector, and if necessary more direct support measures, we will make sure that SIA is able to come through this in good shape," he said.

Mr Heng added: "The SIA group sits at the heart of our aviation system and anchors our position as an air hub. In 2019, SIA accounted for over half of passenger traffic and cargo tonnage in Singapore.

"As the main hub carrier, SIA links us to the rest of the world. Many foreign airlines choose to come to Changi because they can tap on SIA's connectivity to the rest of the region."

He said: "A diminished SIA will undermine our air hub's ability to recover from the crisis. Air travel will eventually resume when Covid-19 comes under control. Until then, SIA will need liquidity to tide over this outbreak."

In this regard, SIA will benefit from the enhanced Jobs Support Scheme and the enhanced Aviation Support Package which will help reduce its operating expenditure, he said.

The airline has announced that it will slash 96 per cent of its capacity as countries, including Singapore, tighten their borders.

Analysts have suggested that SIA could receive support in the form of a working capital loan or subsidies.

SIA called for a rare trading halt pending an announcement on Thursday morning, days after it said it would ground almost its entire fleet and seek more financing as it grapples with the coronavirus pandemic.

Trololo at FrostWurm
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,037
Reaction score
4,573
Yes, and we've just learned this morning that the shareholders of Singapore Airlines are now going to have their shares diluted unless they pay more cash to Singapore Airlines. The company is also adding to its debt load, in high cost fashion and with very senior creditors.

If you want to hang your hat on what the Finance Minister said, be my guest, but he certainly did not say that the government will do any particular favors for stock and bond holders. It's perfectly possible, even common, for an airline named "Singapore Airlines" to fly in the future but without any existing stock or bond holders aboard. That outcome is one possible outcome perfectly consistent with the Finance Minister's words.
 

limster

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Oct 31, 2000
Messages
12,526
Reaction score
3,586
I think some people need to look closer at the GFC "rescues" or "bailouts" more to understand what can or cannot be done, and the effect on existing bondholders.

There are so many dependencies that trigger in the event of a defaulted (including restructured) debt that there is no reason for SIA (or Temasek) to want to go that route when there are so many better options available.

"Real Life" vs "Text book" very different =:p
 

superman

Master Member
Joined
Jan 1, 2000
Messages
4,091
Reaction score
95
Yes, and we've just learned this morning that the shareholders of Singapore Airlines are now going to have their shares diluted unless they pay more cash to Singapore Airlines. The company is also adding to its debt load, in high cost fashion and with very senior creditors.

If you want to hang your hat on what the Finance Minister said, be my guest, but he certainly did not say that the government will do any particular favors for stock and bond holders. It's perfectly possible, even common, for an airline named "Singapore Airlines" to fly in the future but without any existing stock or bond holders aboard. That outcome is one possible outcome perfectly consistent with the Finance Minister's words.

I did not say I want to hang my hat to the Finance Minister, just want to correct your mistake of saying HSK did not say those words.
 
Important Forum Advisory Note
This forum is moderated by volunteer moderators who will react only to members' feedback on posts. Moderators are not employees or representatives of HWZ. Forum members and moderators are responsible for their own posts.

Please refer to our Community Guidelines and Standards, Terms of Service and Member T&Cs for more information.
Top