2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[TehSi99]

Stock market rn is very disconnected to the real economy. UK experiencing strikes and their stock market rally to all time high

The UK’s FTSE 100 hit an all-time high on Friday, as the blue-chip index dominated by multinational companies overcame the drag of a domestic economy headed for recession.

Stock market recovery not equal to economy recovery.

 

[d5dude]

Actually FTSE100 hasn't moved that much in the last 6 months. The big movers are the Euro Banks. Even if LLOY looks like a big mover, it pales in comparison to Santander (I used the GBP counter for fairer comparison). Those who follow my posts know I'm a big fan of Euro banks because they look cheap on a P/E basis, and they also pay dividends (mostly, except the lousy ones...)

Yes not much in the last 6 months but its up like 24% in local currency terms (SGD) from Oct lows. It was very cheap when the pension funds broke the bond market in Oct, made no sense to panic about the sharp drop in GBP when 70% of the FTSE100's revenues come from outside of UK.

 

[d5dude]

Actually anything you bought just one month back would have made you tonnes of money, China, HSTech, ARKK, SOXX. Anything.

Those are narrow sector bets, I only invest in country specific ETFs, not single stocks or sector ETFs, those have too much risk/volatility for my liking. I already have some China exposure via EIMI in my portfolio and I just added some back in May, the drop wasnt sharp enough for me to bring forward my EOY rebalancing so I didnt add more in Oct.

 

[OngHuatHuat]

 

[0xghost]

ES Futures

This week's objective - 4263

 

[elvintay07]

The most kumgong is Exon. Buying high later selling low. ! It is over value now but I guess they have tons of money so got money no place to spend. Understand

 

[utraeg]

lets see tonight if Powell will continue being "Dovish"

 

[elvintay07]

lets see tonight if Powell will continue being "Dovish"

Tonight is simi event?

 

[utraeg]

Tonight is simi event?

J. Powell interview at The Economic Club

Wonder if he will address the red hot jobs data too. Last night another fed, Bostic was saying if there was some error in the January jobs report

 

[Seah.tt]

How to get exposure to investment grade bonds with no tax? Buying IGB ETF listed in the US will have dividend withholding tax right?

 

[limster]

How to get exposure to investment grade bonds with no tax? Buying IGB ETF listed in the US will have dividend withholding tax right?

http://globalincome50.blogspot.com/2019/02/introduction-to-us-corporate-bonds.html
or LQDE.

 

[Seah.tt]

http://globalincome50.blogspot.com/2019/02/introduction-to-us-corporate-bonds.html
or LQDE.

To clarify, must be Ireland domicile? US listed ones cannot ah?

 

[homer123]

To clarify, must be Ireland domicile? US listed ones cannot ah?

Any Us listed etf will incur 30% wht

 

[elvintay07]

US cheong yesterday. Must be Powell saying something nice. Haha

 

[utraeg]

US cheong yesterday. Must be Powell saying something nice. Haha

I am not sure if the market read it right or is it due to extreme greed sentiments.

He said that they will need to do more rate increase, then look around to see if it's enough. Strong labor market data and higher inflation reports continues, feds will raise rates more than current expectation.

He expects the labor market to soften (more unemployment), housing and services prices have not start to come down too.

Overall there's no promise that there will be a "pivot" within this year. Since they do not expect to reach core inflation target of 2%

 

[elvintay07]

I am not sure if the market read it right or is it due to extreme greed sentiments.

He said that they will need to do more rate increase, then look around to see if it's enough. Strong labor market data and higher inflation reports continues, feds will raise rates more than current expectation.

He expects the labor market to soften (more unemployment), housing and services prices have not start to come down too.

Overall there's no promise that there will be a "pivot" within this year. Since they do not expect to reach core inflation target of 2%

To me, Powell can say what he wants but the problem is whether US can sustain the high interest. They are still at deficit and doing QE under table. So let’s say republicans refuse to raise debt ceiling, then how? Of course in the end they will surely raise the ceiling but what wayang do they want to do in between? Cut rates? Don’t forget your interest high means hit debt ceiling faster also. If I am not mistaken, their interest payment is pretty close to defence budget already lei.

 

[limster]

First COE tender under the new quota, but Cat B $105.5k, Open $105k, $500 less, lets see if can drop below $100k by March. If only there was a way to invest in COE

In stock news, I decided to buy more 2801.HK

 

[churnmaster]

First COE tender under the new quota, but Cat B $105.5k, Open $105k, $500 less, lets see if can drop below $100k by March. If only there was a way to invest in COE

In stock news, I decided to buy more 2801.HK

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/bus...51?cid=internal_sharetool_iphone_08022023_cna

 

[limster]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/bus...51?cid=internal_sharetool_iphone_08022023_cna

Chinese people should stop buying cars to drive around. Better to stay at home and use e-commerce and play mobile games instead. Now lonely singles can have chatbot to chat with

 

[aurvandil]