*Official* BBCWatcher club

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,124
Reaction score
4,649
Mark Mobius led emerging market investments at Franklin Templeton Investments for decades, and he's a billionaire. But even he can't withdraw money from his HSBC bank account in Shanghai. He advises other investors to "be very, very careful" about investing in China.

Capital controls are one set of perils both retail and institutional investors face. China is not unique in this respect. My suggestion is to maintain reasonable diversification so that a particular country's or custodian's possible capital controls won't too seriously affect you.
 

celtosaxon

Senior Member
Joined
Oct 4, 2018
Messages
1,748
Reaction score
838
Mark Mobius led emerging market investments at Franklin Templeton Investments for decades, and he's a billionaire. But even he can't withdraw money from his HSBC bank account in Shanghai. He advises other investors to "be very, very careful" about investing in China.

Capital controls are one set of perils both retail and institutional investors face. China is not unique in this respect. My suggestion is to maintain reasonable diversification so that a particular country's or custodian's possible capital controls won't too seriously affect you.

I just checked Wise, for HKD to USD transfers, it is currently limited to HKD10m (US$1.27m) at a shot, but that too can be stopped once you attempt it.

I wonder how much Mobius has in his account. I have to imagine he will be able to get the money out eventually. I’ve heard lots of unpleasant things about HSBC HK. Nomad Capitalist has given several negative rants about them.
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,124
Reaction score
4,649
I wonder how much Mobius has in his account. I have to imagine he will be able to get the money out eventually. I’ve heard lots of unpleasant things about HSBC HK. Nomad Capitalist has given several negative rants about them.
He said HSBC Shanghai specifically, so it’s probably these people.
 

celtosaxon

Senior Member
Joined
Oct 4, 2018
Messages
1,748
Reaction score
838
Just an update on my S27 investments in SRS as a US person...

This is the third year that I’ve gotten a 1099-DIV from UOB. I haven’t had to request this, they seem to send it via certified mail each year and they even include a cover letter with wet ink signatures that basically states that my 1099-DIV is enclosed and if I have any doubt about my tax position, contact a tax advisor.

The total withheld last year was around US$200, and after successful refunds the past two years, I have good confidence this will work again. It’s actually super simple to include this “tax payment” on my 1040; one box to fill in and that’s it.

Interestingly, I know another US person that is doing the same thing with their SRS money at UOB. They never contacted UOB about it and are not receiving any 1099-DIV. I guess this is something special that I triggered by asking questions. No complaints from me!
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,124
Reaction score
4,649
Herbalife won their tax appeal in court. The company argued that it should pay GST based on the discounted prices their members actually pay and not the prices that their members charge if they sell the products to others. Members aren’t typically GST registered, so IRAS argued this sales structure would result in tax leakage if they couldn’t collect. That may be true, but it’s up to Parliament to change the law if it wishes. The court found that IRAS doesn’t have the legal basis to plug this particular leakage.

It’ll be very interesting to see whether and how Parliament tries to plug this leakage and similar forms. Herbalife presumably isn’t the only company that distributes its products using membership networks and “micro sellers.” Some countries don’t have GST (or VAT) filing thresholds. In those countries if you sell $5 of baked goods to your neighbor you’re supposed to collect and pay GST/VAT, or at least the threshold is quite low. So that’s one option Parliament has, or at least it could reduce the current S$1 million threshold to register for GST. (There’s already a lot of GST leakage among sellers with less than S$1 million in annual turnover.) Another option is to try to write tax law language that encompasses business models such as Herbalife’s. Then Herbalife and other companies with similar models will try to avoid triggering the new language if they can.

Herbalife has saved at least S$2.2 million with this win, less extra accounting and legal costs perhaps. I wonder if taking a Herbalife supplement will help me reduce my tax bill….🤣
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,124
Reaction score
4,649
I have a polite criticism to offer the Housing Development Board about this information. In the "Servicing the HDB housing loan" section HDB discusses the virtues of taking a shorter loan term....

....No, that's a really bad idea. HDB loans have no prepayment penalties. You can easily turn a longer term HDB loan into a shorter one if/when it makes sense: just pay it off faster. But can you do the reverse (make the term longer) any time you wish? If you can, OK I guess, but I don't think so.

There's also the fact that even 6 month T-bills are yielding about 4% right now. You'd have to be pretty financially crazy to take OA dollars (or cash) that could be plowed into T-bills (if you want) but instead you use them to pay off a 2.6% loan.

And there's the fact many/most HDB loan recipients have the Home Protection Scheme. Paying off their HDB loans faster than required, then dying too soon, means they've wasted their accelerated repayments. The HPS would've paid off their shares of their loans, but nope, their survivors can't collect HPS payouts (or collect smaller ones).

I realize HDB has to write stuff for the general public (and carefully), but I really, really don't like that information on their Web site, especially in current and similar market conditions.

Anybody else feel the same way?
 

adamant_ium

Junior Member
Joined
Feb 28, 2023
Messages
4
Reaction score
0
Hmm... trying to shop for DII now, but it seems like you have to add it to CareShield Life. Am I right to say that you can't get DIIs before 30? :eek:
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,124
Reaction score
4,649
Hmm... trying to shop for DII now, but it seems like you have to add it to CareShield Life. Am I right to say that you can't get DIIs before 30? :eek:
No, DII is a different insurance product. You're referring to CareShield Life supplements, I think. CareShield Life (and their supplements) are essentially equivalent to Long-Term Care (LTC) insurance. The disability has to be quite serious and really is keyed to whether you need special care. (Payouts aren't big, but they can help pay for care.) DII replaces lost income due to disability (inability to work). They have some similarities, but they're different and complementary.
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,124
Reaction score
4,649
Silicon Valley Bank in the U.S. has failed. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has taken the bank into receivership. Apparently it was the 16th largest bank in the U.S., and media reports are calling it the second largest bank collapse in U.S. history. It’s the first failure of a FDIC insured institution since 2020.

SVB’s official checks will continue to be honored. All deposits up to US$250,000 (per title, not per depositor — for example, a joint account has a separate US$250,000 insurance coverage limit from an individual account) are absolutely protected. Bank branches will reopen Monday morning. ATM cards continue to work. And depositors with more than US$250,000 per account title are receiving immediate partial dividends from the FDIC, and they are expected to receive more as the bank’s assets are worked out. How much recovery they’ll make is unclear.

Bank failures are fairly routine in the U.S., and as you can see the FDIC is a well oiled machine. I was an account holder at a bank that failed. I didn’t lose a penny, and ordinary bank transactions never stopped. Friday is when they close, and Monday is when they reopen (with ATMs still working in between). It’s business as usual for practically everyone, although the folks above deposit insurance limits sweat a bit if they haven’t structured their deposits with multiple account titles that get separate insurance limits.

I doubt this bank’s failure presages any big wave of failures since the available evidence suggests U.S. banks are broadly well capitalized. But we’ll see.

If you have deposits in U.S. banks or credit unions just make sure you stay at or below US$250,000 if you can. Ask your bank how to organize your deposits if you have more. And if you must have a bigger balance in one account consider doing that at a state chartered savings bank in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Massachusetts has a state deposit insurance system with unlimited coverage.

Unlike Singapore foreign currency deposits in U.S. banks and brokerages ARE insured. Either the account will be preserved (in an acquiring institution) or you’ll receive a payout in U.S. dollars at the exchange rate when the payment is made. The NCUA insures credit union accounts (same coverage limit rules as the FDIC), and the SIPC insures brokerage accounts (up to US$500,000 per title arrangement, of which up to US$250,000 is the cash limit). You’re not necessarily going to receive promised interest, but you’ll be kept whole within coverage limits. For example, if you have a Certificate of Deposit (equivalent to a fixed deposit) the CD may end will accrued interest instead of running to the end of its original term. For depositors above coverage limits these organizations are fierce in trying to recover your deposits, and you (an account holder) reign supreme in the order of settlement, ahead of every conventional creditor (secured and unsecured). If they have to sell the office coffee machines to raise funds to pay depositors they will.

Make sure your chosen U.S. institution is FDIC, NCUA, or SIPC insured, as the case may be. You can check the various organizations’ lists to figure that out. There are a very few institutions that seem like they should be but aren’t. For example, there’s an online bank based in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico that isn’t FDIC insured, but they say so pretty clearly.
 
Last edited:

deepblueli

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 19, 2004
Messages
655
Reaction score
34
I think the effect of this collapse is more about the impact to the startup and VC in Silicon Valley, and hopefully not spread out to others. It is always the domino effect that is scary rather than single failure.
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,124
Reaction score
4,649
I think the effect of this collapse is more about the impact to the startup and VC in Silicon Valley, and hopefully not spread out to others. It is always the domino effect that is scary rather than single failure.
Maybe, and I’ve seen such arguments in the media reports. I’m skeptical.

There’s something like a mini employment recession in the ”technology sector“ right now since a lot of IT firms have been trimming their workforces. (And as always some of these CEOs will overdo it and discover they’ve cut into bone and vital organs.) It’s disruptive, but from a macroeconomic point of view it’s not necessarily a bad thing. The U.S. has lots of job opportunities especially if you’re willing to relocate internally. Some of the state level unemployment rates are amazingly low. There’s also the fact the vast majority of Silicon Valley startups (and VC backing them) are among the dumbest business ideas ever. We’ve seen periodic shakeout waves, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing either.

Speaking of stupid, if many startups and VCs parked a lot of uninsured money at SVB then that was pretty dumb. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, or Citibank (as examples) maybe I could understand. SVB was known as a “cowboy,” and there was a fair bit of warning about its imminent failure.

Let’s see what happens. It looks like the regulators aren’t at all worried about “too big to fail” issues. Otherwise they would’ve organized a transfer in whole to another bank (with the FDIC essentially indemnifying the acquiring institution). Instead they’ve chosen traditional closure. I think even the >$250,000 depositors are going to do reasonably well, possibly even full recovery. It’ll just take time for them.
 

revhappy

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2012
Messages
12,208
Reaction score
2,662
@BBCWatcher I remember you posted somewhere couple of months ago, that you follow some blogger who is smart and as per him Feb would be the time when yields would peak and our last chance to lock in these high yields. I just locked in to Amundi global agg index fund, just considering how much yields have risen again, after falling in Jan.

https://endowus.com/investment-funds-list/amundi-index-global-agg-500m-fund-LU2420246212
What is the blogger's view now? As inflation has been coming higher and a strong labour market, has he updated his dot plot?
My timing of buying the Agg fund has been good. Long duration bond yields have come off, thanks to the SVB turmoil. I have placed redemption request with Endowus, they take T+1 for this fund, so I will only get Tuesday's pricing. I hope the CPI number comes in below expectations.
 

deepblueli

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 19, 2004
Messages
655
Reaction score
34
Maybe, and I’ve seen such arguments in the media reports. I’m skeptical.

There’s something like a mini employment recession in the ”technology sector“ right now since a lot of IT firms have been trimming their workforces. (And as always some of these CEOs will overdo it and discover they’ve cut into bone and vital organs.) It’s disruptive, but from a macroeconomic point of view it’s not necessarily a bad thing. The U.S. has lots of job opportunities especially if you’re willing to relocate internally. Some of the state level unemployment rates are amazingly low. There’s also the fact the vast majority of Silicon Valley startups (and VC backing them) are among the dumbest business ideas ever. We’ve seen periodic shakeout waves, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing either.

Speaking of stupid, if many startups and VCs parked a lot of uninsured money at SVB then that was pretty dumb. Wells Fargo, Bank of America, or Citibank (as examples) maybe I could understand. SVB was known as a “cowboy,” and there was a fair bit of warning about its imminent failure.

Let’s see what happens. It looks like the regulators aren’t at all worried about “too big to fail” issues. Otherwise they would’ve organized a transfer in whole to another bank (with the FDIC essentially indemnifying the acquiring institution). Instead they’ve chosen traditional closure. I think even the >$250,000 depositors are going to do reasonably well, possibly even full recovery. It’ll just take time for them.
It is not always visible until it happens just like lehman brothers. USDC holds its USD reserve partially in both SVB and Silvergate bank, although it is very unlikely it will have problem but if it does, means whole crypto industry collapses.

Not saying it will happen, but sometimes it is hard to see the linkage of the domino effect until it happens which will be quite rapid. But I do agree such chance of happening is very slim and press tends to over exaggerating.
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,124
Reaction score
4,649
It is not always visible until it happens just like lehman brothers.
Lehman Brothers was not a FDIC insured bank. And there was never any risk for its brokerage clients, big and small. As I understand it the central issue was with Lehman's investment banking business and specifically counterparty risks associated with Lehman. The regulators decided to let it fail and clean up on the other sides if they had to. Whether that was the correct decision or not is a very interesting debate. I don't think even with hindsight we know whether it was the correct decision or not. The regulators had to take into consideration whether they wanted to set a precedent that some institutions would be "too big to fail," because that'd create moral hazard problems. So Lehman wasn't too big to fail, obviously. But it was really, really big.

Maybe that's the Lehman lesson, that at least the first mega institution will never be "too big to fail."

Silicon Valley Bank was very different. It was a FDIC insured bank. A big one, but not as big as Washington Mutual was. (J.P. Morgan Chase took over WaMu.) The failure of Continental Illinois in 1984 was pretty big — roughly 2/3rds as big as SVB's failure after adjusting for inflation (as is proper). I don't think you can attribute anything systemically bad happening specifically due to either WaMu's or Continental Illinois's failures. (WaMu was the biggest U.S. bank failure ever, and it happened amidst the Global Financial Crisis, but I think it's fair to say it was a minor footnote in terms of GFC impact. The FDIC and Chase acquisition took care of that.)
USDC holds its USD reserve partially in both SVB and Silvergate bank, although it is very unlikely it will have problem but if it does, means whole crypto industry collapses.
"And nothing of value was lost" if that were to happen. If it's going to collapse it'd be far better to collapse now before it might get systemically important. In my judgment it's far from systemically important now, although you could argue it's systemically important to Russians and North Koreans trying to evade sanctions.🙂
Not saying it will happen, but sometimes it is hard to see the linkage of the domino effect until it happens which will be quite rapid. But I do agree such chance of happening is very slim and press tends to over exaggerating.
That's how I feel, yes. Sure, there's a slight risk of meaningful/real economy impactful contagion, but I doubt it. This feels like a Continental Illinois to me.
 

DevilPlate

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 22, 2020
Messages
12,164
Reaction score
5,129
My timing of buying the Agg fund has been good. Long duration bond yields have come off, thanks to the SVB turmoil. I have placed redemption request with Endowus, they take T+1 for this fund, so I will only get Tuesday's pricing. I hope the CPI number comes in below expectations.
I am surprised u treat such UT as extremely short term investment bet.
 

revhappy

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2012
Messages
12,208
Reaction score
2,662
I am surprised u treat such UT as extremely short term investment bet.
It wasnt short term bet. I bought it with the intention of holding it as long as it takes for yields to come down. But yields came down in just 10 days, then why not take the money off the table?
 

DevilPlate

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 22, 2020
Messages
12,164
Reaction score
5,129
It wasnt short term bet. I bought it with the intention of holding it as long as it takes for yields to come down. But yields came down in just 10 days, then why not take the money off the table?
How much profit? I see the chart unless u buy during Oct Lows....else not much % gains right

I thought I already quite paper hand when comes to reit....>15% profit i always tempted to sell off when i intended to hold for long term too whahahaha
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
23,124
Reaction score
4,649
SVB is stupid enough to buy into 30yr Tbonds during ultra low interest rate period.
Yup.😐

You'd think they would've bought 30 year TIPS at least, but no.

When banks get in trouble that's usually how they get in trouble: they get caught on the wrong side of their longer duration bets. Kind of like how Singapore Airlines got caught with a huge percentage of expensive and long running fuel hedging contracts. Russia's invasion of Ukraine helped a little, but wow, what a bet (or set of bets) SQ made. ("Too big to fail"?🤔)
 
Important Forum Advisory Note
This forum is moderated by volunteer moderators who will react only to members' feedback on posts. Moderators are not employees or representatives of HWZ. Forum members and moderators are responsible for their own posts.

Please refer to our Community Guidelines and Standards, Terms of Service and Member T&Cs for more information.
Top