2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[edwardZ]

first 2 trading days of this month feels like more momentum than the whole of April

 

[TehSi99]

I am bearish bias on the US indices till end of year, unless something drastic happens.
The fast high interest hike is just like a time bomb. Somethings may break along the way. Banks already first casualties.

Just my opinion.

 

[stanlawj]

I am bearish bias on the US indices till end of year, unless something drastic happens.
The fast high interest hike is just like a time bomb. Somethings may break along the way. Banks already first casualties.

Just my opinion.

Bombs already hitting left right and centre. I escaped so many bombs recently! Now my USD dollar holdings continue to weaken against SGD.....that's not suppose to happen. Already four to five figure losses caused by forex changes since late last year.

 

[theMKR]

Bombs already hitting left right and centre. I escaped so many bombs recently! Now my USD dollar holdings continue to weaken against SGD.....that's not suppose to happen. Already four to five figure losses caused by forex changes since late last year.

wah ur acct size so big to be affected by forex

anyway those smart wall st ppl should have considered and priced in everything rite?

 

[stanlawj]

wah ur acct size so big to be affected by forex

anyway those smart wall st ppl should have considered and priced in everything rite?

USDSGD roundtrip from 1.35 to 1.4 (buy USD) to 1.335 (sell USD) = 4% loss.
That's not a trivial % amount for SGD resident.

100k portfolio => 4k loss.
1mil portfolio => 40k loss

To cancel out the forex loss, the portfolio must make a net gain more than 4% which makes it a real drag. Or, use IBKR's margin feature to avoid conversion, but that would require being prescient about the future. At 1.4, I thought USD will go to 1.5. Now that looks like impossible with the liquidity taps turned on (swap lines, etc) and international dollar squeeze is over.

 

[theMKR]

USDSGD roundtrip from 1.35 to 1.4 (buy USD) to 1.335 (sell USD) = 4% loss.
That's not a trivial % amount for SGD resident.

100k => 4k loss.
1mil portfolio => 40k loss

To cancel out the forex loss, the portfolio must make a net gain more than 4% which makes it a real drag. Or, use IBKR's margin feature to avoid conversion, but that would require being prescient about the future. At 1.4, I thought USD will go to 1.5

moi used half half.....

i used to convert to usd to buy, then i realised margin no need...

 

[limster]

​

Haleon First quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: UK£0.042 (vs UK£0.037 in 1Q 2022)​

First quarter 2023 results:​ EPS: UK£0.042 (up from UK£0.037 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: UK£2.99b (up 14% from 1Q 2022). Net income: UK£389.0m (up 13% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 13% (in line with 1Q 2022).

I'm vested in Haleon and GSK. Good indicator of recession will be this 'branded' consumer health goods segment.

People still buying Panadol and other 'branded' medicine whereas in recession you will expect consumers to switch to generics or not buy at all (eg: their vitamin brands).

 

[revhappy]

USDSGD roundtrip from 1.35 to 1.4 (buy USD) to 1.335 (sell USD) = 4% loss.
That's not a trivial % amount for SGD resident.

100k portfolio => 4k loss.
1mil portfolio => 40k loss

To cancel out the forex loss, the portfolio must make a net gain more than 4% which makes it a real drag. Or, use IBKR's margin feature to avoid conversion, but that would require being prescient about the future. At 1.4, I thought USD will go to 1.5. Now that looks like impossible with the liquidity taps turned on (swap lines, etc) and international dollar squeeze is over.

There is an inherent hedge when stocks go up usually USD weakens and when stocks fall USD becomes strong. So I find holding USD long in IBKR waiting for stocks to crash is a risky bet. If you get the stocks direction wrong, you lose out with stocks ripping as well as your USD falling.

So I always promptly convert SGD to USD if I am buying stocks and then after selling stocks I promptly convert back to SGD.

Already dealing with stocks is hard enough I don't want to add currency angle to it.

With current margin loan rates, it makes no sense to buy stocks without converting currency.

 

[churnmaster]

USDSGD roundtrip from 1.35 to 1.4 (buy USD) to 1.335 (sell USD) = 4% loss.
That's not a trivial % amount for SGD resident.

100k portfolio => 4k loss.
1mil portfolio => 40k loss

To cancel out the forex loss, the portfolio must make a net gain more than 4% which makes it a real drag. Or, use IBKR's margin feature to avoid conversion, but that would require being prescient about the future. At 1.4, I thought USD will go to 1.5. Now that looks like impossible with the liquidity taps turned on (swap lines, etc) and international dollar squeeze is over.

Yeah, it’s a drag. I sold some of it close to 1.4 but then bought back close to 1.34 and now that’s underwater.

Btw, you never considered hedging the same using USD/SGD futures listed on SGX especially if it’s a big position. It seems the roll cost is about 20 pips a month (I.e. about 1.7-1.8% pa before transaction costs)

 

[stanlawj]

Yeah, it’s a drag. I sold some of it close to 1.4 but then bought back close to 1.34 and now that’s underwater.

Btw, you never considered hedging the same using USD/SGD futures listed on SGX especially if it’s a big position. It seems the roll cost is about 20 pips a month (I.e. about 1.7-1.8% pa before transaction costs)

What is the ticker name to search for and buy on SGX?

 

[churnmaster]

What is the ticker name to search for and buy on SGX?

SND for Full sized Futures and US for Mini Futures

 

[edwardZ]

looks like some shenanigan-ing going on in the US banking sector, manipulation in-progress by big boys to shut more banks and forced the FED to pause or even cut rates

 

[stupid12345678]

I will continue to accumulate Apple in year 2023 and solely Apple.
last year got distracted by investing in Google, Disney and QQQ, performance not as great.

 

[elvintay07]

I will continue to accumulate Apple in year 2023 and solely Apple.
last year got distracted by investing in Google, Disney and QQQ, performance not as great.

Google, QQQ later will cheong. I bought google when ppl are trying to bury them in the coffin. Haha! Sibei song when they release their AI for gmail. I think this is powerful. Apple as usual is my favourite company. I sold some at $160+ and didn’t managed to buy back. Every night I pray hard for them to release some ultra bad news so I can buy back cheaper. Wife laugh at me to say my backside itchy

I understand the dilemma. Because when bad news is released, we will doubt our decision making. Not sure suddenly google, Tesla will suddenly die because their competitor comes in sibei strong. ! I resisted hard not to sell Microsoft when they cheong during the chatgpt hype. Between google and Microsoft, I tends to like google more. I always feel Microsoft is a “mere” company. Yes, lots of good products. Can generate revenue, good balance sheet. But they just doesn’t have that global dominance effect apart from their microsoft and windows. They are betting on their integration. If you have m365, the integration with teams is awesome but teams is so difficult to use compared to zoom.

 

[peterchan75]

Currently trending industries of US stocks.

Residential Construction
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Restaurants
Insurance - Diversified
Semiconductors
Software - Infrastructure

 

[revhappy]

I just saw MSCI Singapore futures fell 4%! What the hell happened?

This is the only link I found.

https://www.marketpulse.com/indices...ressure-from-weak-external-demand-china/kwong

 

[limster]

I just saw MSCI Singapore futures fell 4%! What the hell happened?

This is the only link I found.

https://www.marketpulse.com/indices...ressure-from-weak-external-demand-china/kwong

My comfortdelgro order filled at 1.13 and then a 2nd order at 1.12....... looks like something is up. time to catch falling knife

 

[andyhtc]

We could experience a full blow of the global economic slowdown in Q3.

I prefer keeping cash now.

 

[aurvandil]

Market has finally broken above 4200 for the S&P. The breakout looks real and the next key level above is 4350. From now till NFP on Jun 2, there is no major macro event risk so it is blue skies for the market to run a bit.

 

[Flare]

The 10 year US yield suddenly jump by hawkish fed comment last night, dunno whether it is bluff. Hope the rest of the market breadth catches up. though i have long term index funds, other stocks are still ang ang for me, i'll just continue to DCA, still high on cash.