2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[apriliasiao]

My expectation is on reits is bullish and my holding period really long term. So short terms price correction doesn't bother and in fact will buy more. Don't read too much into macro economy and headline news like which usually screw one's investment.

 

[apriliasiao]

CLR got so many monkey reits. U all not scare? I also hold some but really cmi

It just part of my portfolio so it is ok. The blue chips reits in CLR is enough to hold it up, monkey reits die better so others can take over it place. That's the wonder of ETF.

 

[homer123]

Invest my cash holding into 3 parts in 2023 . Invested 70k SGD in SSB, 160k SGD into S-Reit, LSE and HKSE dividend stocks and lastly 285k USD into my conservative portfolio consist of US bond/short term T-bills as below.. The 160k part suffered heavy loss due to S-Reit and China.. I am tapped out for the year ..good luck to those who have cash now...

 

[revhappy]

Invest my cash holding into 3 parts in 2023 . Invested 70k SGD in SSB, 160k SGD into S-Reit, LSE and HKSE dividend stocks and lastly 285k USD into my conservative portfolio consist of US bond/short term T-bills as below.. The 160k part suffered heavy loss due to S-Reit and China.. I am tapped out for the year ..good luck to those who have cash now...

The main concern for me is that this is a very localized and orderly sell off and not like Mar 2020 or Dec 2018 kind of global driven selloff which affected all markets.

When there is a global forced liquidation selloff, even though it is very painful, we have indicators like VIX hitting sky high sentiment in the bottom of barrel etc so we can expect a V shape recovery.

Now if we have a global forced liquidation sell off Asia, China, Singapore, etc everyone will follow and fall at twice the speed of the US markets. Like US falls 1.5% Hong Kong will fall 3%. Asian markets are like bottomless pits. During the covid, STI went below 2500, same level as Jul 2006.

 

[homer123]

The main concern for me is that this is a very localized and orderly sell off and not like Mar 2020 or Dec 2018 kind of global driven selloff which affected all markets.

When there is a global forced liquidation selloff, even though it is very painful, we have indicators like VIX hitting sky high sentiment in the bottom of barrel etc so we can expect a V shape recovery.

Now if we have a global forced liquidation sell off Asia, China, Singapore, etc everyone will follow and fall at twice the speed of the US markets. Like US falls 1.5% Hong Kong will fall 3%. Asian markets are like bottomless pits. During the covid, STI went below 2500, same level as Jul 2006.

I suspect this financial crisis will drag much longer for the rest of the world...

 

[DevilPlate]

Invest my cash holding into 3 parts in 2023 . Invested 70k SGD in SSB, 160k SGD into S-Reit, LSE and HKSE dividend stocks and lastly 285k USD into my conservative portfolio consist of US bond/short term T-bills as below.. The 160k part suffered heavy loss due to S-Reit and China.. I am tapped out for the year ..good luck to those who have cash now...

U still hold quite alot of risk free short term bonds leh....anytime can convert to cash just like SSB.

To me all these are cash

 

[DevilPlate]

The main concern for me is that this is a very localized and orderly sell off and not like Mar 2020 or Dec 2018 kind of global driven selloff which affected all markets.

When there is a global forced liquidation selloff, even though it is very painful, we have indicators like VIX hitting sky high sentiment in the bottom of barrel etc so we can expect a V shape recovery.

Now if we have a global forced liquidation sell off Asia, China, Singapore, etc everyone will follow and fall at twice the speed of the US markets. Like US falls 1.5% Hong Kong will fall 3%. Asian markets are like bottomless pits. During the covid, STI went below 2500, same level as Jul 2006.

very hard to say...remember our lousy STI outperform in 2022 just by holding up LOL

 

[homer123]

U still hold quite alot of risk free short term bonds leh....anytime can convert to cash just like SSB.

To me all these are cash

I probably won't sell my SSB as I want to hit the 200k allocation and I am still 90k away.. As for short term bills..hoping to covert to long term UST bond if they hit 5.5% or IG corporate bond if they hit near 7%

 

[DevilPlate]

I probably won't sell my SSB as I want to hit the 200k allocation as I am still 90k away.. As for short term bills..hoping to covert to long term UST bond if they hit 5.5% or IG corporate bond if they hit near 7%

which IG bond fund u looking at?
our sucky MBH so low yield but holding up well despite long term yield rising.

I am currently looking to add more IDTL to average down but USD so high sian

 

[wutawa]

My expectation is on reits is bullish and my holding period really long term. So short terms price correction doesn't bother and in fact will buy more. Don't read too much into macro economy and headline news like which usually screw one's investment.

I am just your opposite. My 2 holdings, captialand china and mapletree ind, r looking sad. I am abt to cut loss on 1 of them

 

[DevilPlate]

I am just your opposite. My 2 holdings, captialand china and mapletree ind, r looking sad. I am abt to cut loss on 1 of them

well if yr cash position is vy low....then perhaps cutting loss or sell before it dips into the red could be an option.

 

[wutawa]

well if yr cash position is vy low....then perhaps cutting loss or sell before it dips into the red could be an option.

unfortunately, it is very red. -42% and -14%

 

[revhappy]

I probably won't sell my SSB as I want to hit the 200k allocation as I am still 90k away.. As for short term bills..hoping to covert to long term UST bond if they hit 5.5% or IG corporate bond if they hit near 7%

If you are still earning and saving from your salary, it is a huge plus. You don't have to sell any bonds or cash as the yields are very good. You can just invest your new savings into risk assets .

This is my approach now, I consider myself FI, so any new income I make I treat it as a bonus and can be allocated to risk assets. I will not touch my safe bond assets and put them into risk.

 

[DevilPlate]

If you are still earning and saving from your salary, it is a huge plus. You don't have to sell any bonds or cash as the yields are very good. You can just invest your new savings into risk assets .

This is my approach now, I consider myself FI, so any new income I make I treat it as a bonus and can be allocated to risk assets. I will not touch my safe bond assets and put them into risk.

Tell that to UST bond holders to see 50%+ drawdown LOL

I bought IDTL after a major selldown at around 3.5 and now still suffer 10%+ loss LOLOL

 

[revhappy]

Tell that to UST bond holders to see 50%+ drawdown LOL

I bought IDTL after a major selldown at around 3.5 and now still suffer 10%+ loss LOLOL

It is quite sad indeed. But I think from this point onwards, bonds have already priced in so much high interest rate well into the future. So you are getting compensated well. Ofcourse people who bought bonds when FED was doing QE and buying MBS, they are all underwater.

But I feel, there is no point having a price anchor of the past. Just do a mental accounting and take the hit and start looking for your portfolio growth from this point onwards.

I always do a year on year comparison of my networth growth. Whatever happens in the previous year, I forget it, lol. The good thing is we are already close to November and this year will end and we can look forward to next year using this year end as the base.

 

[homer123]

which IG bond fund u looking at?
our sucky MBH so low yield but holding up well despite long term yield rising.

I am currently looking to add more IDTL to average down but USD so high sian

I have a US retirement account from my previous US job. I am buying ishares term bond etf which is not available to overseas investors. Blackrock has created this product which allow etf to mature every year from 2023 to 2033.. Instead of buying individual bond, you will be buying a bond etf which consist of several hundreds of bonds which will mature in a particular year. This allows investor to build a bond etf ladder with different maturing date.

 

[limster]

I have a US retirement account from my previous US job. I am buying ishares term bond etf which is not available to overseas investors. Blackrock has created this product which allow etf to mature every year from 2023 to 2033.. Instead of buying individual bond, you will be buying a bond etf which consist of several hundreds of bonds which will mature in a particular year. This allows investor to build a bond etf ladder with different maturing date.

Thanks for reminding me about iBonds. They are not that popular in the UK so they don't seem to be regularly issuing new iBond ETFs but the existing ones are interesting:

2025 - ID25 - YTM 6.09%
2026 - D26A - YTM 6.05%
2028 - D28A - YTM 6.16%

So there is an inverted yield curve if 2025 has higher YTM than 2026?

 

[d5dude]

It is quite sad indeed. But I think from this point onwards, bonds have already priced in so much high interest rate well into the future. So you are getting compensated well. Ofcourse people who bought bonds when FED was doing QE and buying MBS, they are all underwater.

But I feel, there is no point having a price anchor of the past. Just do a mental accounting and take the hit and start looking for your portfolio growth from this point onwards.

I always do a year on year comparison of my networth growth. Whatever happens in the previous year, I forget it, lol. The good thing is we are already close to November and this year will end and we can look forward to next year using this year end as the base.

Yea and convexity has improved a lot now with the 10 yr at nearly 5%.

The investor loses 5% if yields rise another 100bps to 6% in the next 12 months, but he gains 15% if yields drop to 4%. This is the complete opposite of how things were when central banks were distorting the treasury market with QE.

 

[homer123]

Thanks for reminding me about iBonds. They are not that popular in the UK so they don't seem to be regularly issuing new iBond ETFs but the existing ones are interesting:

2025 - ID25 - YTM 6.09%
2026 - D26A - YTM 6.05%
2028 - D28A - YTM 6.16%

So there is an inverted yield curve if 2025 has higher YTM than 2026?

Limster , thanks for pointing this new term bond etf available for offshore investor.. @DevilPlate , Previously , I told you term bond is not available to overseas investors.. It seems that Blackrock has created an offshore equivalent as below in Sep which is domicile in Ireland. You can check them out. However, I am not sure whether there is any WHT. Even if there is a 15% WHT , it will not be worth it.. I will try to buy a small sum in IB to check if there is any WHT.

https://www.blackrock.com/americas-...ishares-ibonds-dec-2025-term-corp-ucits-etf#/​

 

[direbmem]

Dropping back to level at beginning of 2023...might as well not DCA throughout the year...