USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[lordlad0]

So shiok. How many shares left

I deliberately kept my remaining shares to be 8888.

Also heresay rumors that Meta is going to stock split soon....

*Rub hands*

 

[DevilPlate]

Congratz!

Just imagine....
All the know nothing dca folks and the big ball giga chads are still partying on the gain trains and boats.

All the perma bears and doom prophets are watching from the sidelines,
shouting correction/recession/depression/hard landing/ crash landing/m formation/crash is coming! REPENT!

Don’t be fooled….most doomsayers still staying vested….
Just that some holding more cash and hoping to accumulate more during huge correction.

With unlimited printing press, somehow everybody think Fed/central banks will always print to save the world and results in V-shaped recovery.

 

[elvintay07]

Bears said tonight huge drop as Fed not cutting interest. I think good time to pick some bargains

 

[highsulphur]

Bears said tonight huge drop as Fed not cutting interest. I think good time to pick some bargains

Futures are not red

 

[elvintay07]

Futures are not red

Strange lei. Why perma bears all popping champagne huh?

 

[Trader11]

Bears said tonight huge drop as Fed not cutting interest. I think good time to pick some bargains

Don't pick falling knives

 

[stanlawj]

Very concise breakdown of disinflation factors that will take control over the next few months:

 

[Trader11]

ARM breaking up looks good

 

[elvintay07]

Very concise breakdown of disinflation factors that will take control over the next few months:

So buy ah?

 

[stanlawj]

So buy ah?

I'm not qualified to give any financial advise. But you can consider buying physical gold and physical silver for long-term holding. They have zero counter-party risks, and is widely accepted (especially by pawn brokers and money lenders) as a form of money (or collateral for currency).

 

[d9_lives]

ARM breaking up looks good

Roger that. Sold 20 put 0dte.

 

[d9_lives]

Roger that. Sold 20 put 0dte.

*21 puts. Within 10min, I got 2k+
LOL....Easiest money ever.
Thanks for the recommendation

 

[Trader11]

*21 puts. Within 10min, I got 2k+
LOL....Easiest money ever.
Thanks for the recommendation

Must hold hard. This stock can squeeze your balls because of low float

 

[stanlawj]

David Cervantes, one of the most accurate macro trader, gives a straight-to-the-point view of the slowdown in economic activity:

https://www.pinebrookcap.com/p/weekly-signal-and-noise-filter-3d6

The non-farm payroll report, coming in at 272K new jobs for the month of May, is the noise.

The signal is in the unemployment (U3) rate.

This is not simply a question of choosing the indicator that confirms one’s biases or narrative preferences. Investors should focus their attention on the U3 rate because it is a primary input for policy formation and policy measurement.

• U3 is used in the Taylor rule.
• U3 is used in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) used by the FOMC.
• U3 is used to measure the policy efficacy of the Fed’s dual mandate.
• U3 is what figures into the national debate over labor market conditions and, more importantly, electoral politics.

The monthly NFP figures do not figure into any of these policy considerations.

The information from the U3 rate informs us that the labor market is unambiguously cooling, currently at 4% after bottoming at 3.4% in January 2023.

While the NFP should not be discarded outright, it should be contextualized against the steady state needs of the economy. In other words, despite the above consensus NFP print of 272K jobs, the unemployment rate still increased from 3.9% in April to 4% in May.

Confidence in the economy’s evolution to a goldilocks steady state of disinflationary growth is furthered by this week’s inflation signals from the core CPI and core PPI reports.

 

[elvintay07]

David Cervantes, one of the most accurate macro trader, gives a straight-to-the-point view of the slowdown in economic activity:

https://www.pinebrookcap.com/p/weekly-signal-and-noise-filter-3d6

The non-farm payroll report, coming in at 272K new jobs for the month of May, is the noise.

The signal is in the unemployment (U3) rate.

This is not simply a question of choosing the indicator that confirms one’s biases or narrative preferences. Investors should focus their attention on the U3 rate because it is a primary input for policy formation and policy measurement.

• U3 is used in the Taylor rule.
• U3 is used in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) used by the FOMC.
• U3 is used to measure the policy efficacy of the Fed’s dual mandate.
• U3 is what figures into the national debate over labor market conditions and, more importantly, electoral politics.

The monthly NFP figures do not figure into any of these policy considerations.

The information from the U3 rate informs us that the labor market is unambiguously cooling, currently at 4% after bottoming at 3.4% in January 2023.

While the NFP should not be discarded outright, it should be contextualized against the steady state needs of the economy. In other words, despite the above consensus NFP print of 272K jobs, the unemployment rate still increased from 3.9% in April to 4% in May.

Confidence in the economy’s evolution to a goldilocks steady state of disinflationary growth is furthered by this week’s inflation signals from the core CPI and core PPI reports.

My lau peh claimed Powell will cock it up and over tighten till market crash and then quickly reverse to aggressive over cut rates and cock it up also. Haha! Personally I feel heading toward deflation liao. Cathay said before

 

[DevilPlate]

My lau peh claimed Powell will cock it up and over tighten till market crash and then quickly reverse to aggressive over cut rates and cock it up also. Haha! Personally I feel heading toward deflation liao. Cathay said before

Yr lau peh not wrong.

Based on history track record, Fed always too late to hike and too late to cut...
Their scholars look at lagging indicators hahaha

Bigger qn is whether soft or hard landing or continue no landing for few more years?

 

[sohguanh]

My lau peh claimed Powell will cock it up and over tighten till market crash and then quickly reverse to aggressive over cut rates and cock it up also. Haha! Personally I feel heading toward deflation liao. Cathay said before

I am impressed your lao peh belong to the savvy or informed generation who invest. You being his son should inherit his good genes.

My lao peh technician so never teach me all such investment. He only teach me bank savings account, FD and CPF becuz he say govt is savvy let them do the job. Ironically he passed away two years after 65 before he get to enjoy the fullest extent of the govt invest for him returns.

 

[DevilPlate]

I am impressed your lao peh belong to the savvy or informed generation who invest. You being his son should inherit his good genes.

My lao peh technician so never teach me all such investment. He only teach me bank savings account, FD and CPF becuz he say govt is savvy let them do the job. Ironically he passed away two years after 65 before he get to enjoy the fullest extent of the govt invest for him returns.

Yr father dependents will inherit his wealth in CPF Under old RSS

Trickier for CPFLife tho….suay suay pass on during certain age band kena makan all.

 

[elvintay07]

I am impressed your lao peh belong to the savvy or informed generation who invest. You being his son should inherit his good genes.

My lao peh technician so never teach me all such investment. He only teach me bank savings account, FD and CPF becuz he say govt is savvy let them do the job. Ironically he passed away two years after 65 before he get to enjoy the fullest extent of the govt invest for him returns.

I probably stronger than him la. He very patriotic with simi SGX and flying his Singapore flag. All these indirectly screwed him. For their generation, they probably live and die with their country. For my generation, country = rental apartment only, ! Doesn’t work out then move la. Lol

 

[elvintay07]

Yr father dependents will inherit his wealth in CPF Under old RSS

Trickier for CPFLife tho….suay suay pass on during certain age band kena makan all.

I told him don’t leave anything for me. lol! I don’t really need it la. Give to his grandchildren better. Imagine you are in primary 1 then probably huat kwey