Good points. This is my first time looking into HK. I've never analysed HK before.2023 retail sales were distorted by their consumption vouchers; anyone doing a YOY comparison will be comparing against an abnormal base. The value of those vouchers is not small; they are equivalent to one month of HK spending at HKD 30bil. Hongkongers were already big spenders in China even during the pre-COVID days. As for the increased purchasing power, their rate now, as compared to the 2017/18 days, was probably 5% better when Hongkongers made 80mil annual trips to China back then. If Hong Kongers ' spending more in China is a problem, that problem already started back in 2018.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...ut-hong-kongs-2023-round-consumption-vouchers
Their problem seems to be that not enough Chinese tourists. Peak arrivals in 2019 were about 56mil, now, they are still 40% short, which means 20mil+++ fewer tourists as compared to the old days. Locals' spending is unlikely to cover that shortfall.
https://hongkongfp.com/2024/05/14/hong-kong-arrivals-up-20-year-on-year-in-april-says-tourism-board-but-figures-still-lag-behind-pre-pandemic-era/#:~:text=The city saw 3,391,381 visitors,which were from the mainland.
So let's ask the next question: Is there anymore motivation for these tourists to go to HK?
1. from Mainland China
2. from International?
Will there be future plans for HK that will attract them?
Gamble on the future will be bright, or wait for some evidence to show up first?
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