General S-REITs Discussion Thread

stanlawj

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2023 retail sales were distorted by their consumption vouchers; anyone doing a YOY comparison will be comparing against an abnormal base. The value of those vouchers is not small; they are equivalent to one month of HK spending at HKD 30bil. Hongkongers were already big spenders in China even during the pre-COVID days. As for the increased purchasing power, their rate now, as compared to the 2017/18 days, was probably 5% better when Hongkongers made 80mil annual trips to China back then. If Hong Kongers ' spending more in China is a problem, that problem already started back in 2018.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...ut-hong-kongs-2023-round-consumption-vouchers

Their problem seems to be that not enough Chinese tourists. Peak arrivals in 2019 were about 56mil, now, they are still 40% short, which means 20mil+++ fewer tourists as compared to the old days. Locals' spending is unlikely to cover that shortfall.

https://hongkongfp.com/2024/05/14/hong-kong-arrivals-up-20-year-on-year-in-april-says-tourism-board-but-figures-still-lag-behind-pre-pandemic-era/#:~:text=The city saw 3,391,381 visitors,which were from the mainland.
Good points. This is my first time looking into HK. I've never analysed HK before.

So let's ask the next question: Is there anymore motivation for these tourists to go to HK?
1. from Mainland China
2. from International?

Will there be future plans for HK that will attract them?
Gamble on the future will be bright, or wait for some evidence to show up first?
 
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sky1978

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Good points. This is my first time looking into HK. I've never analysed HK before.

So let's ask the next question: Is there anymore motivation for these tourists to go to HK?
1. from Mainland China
2. from International?

Will there be future plans for HK that will attract them?
Gamble on the future will be bright, or wait for some evidence to show up first?

The only motivation I can think of is to buy branded goods; some branded goods have certain global pricing, and there is VAT in China, whereas Hong Kong doesn't. Recently, the HK govt requested an increase in duty-free spending, and they got an increase from RMB 5k to RMB 15k, so they are betting on people coming over for high-value purchases. The other thing is that not all residents from China can freely visit HK; only certain cities are on the individual travel scheme list, and they have recently added another 9.

https://www.asgam.com/index.php/202...sit-scheme-for-travel-to-macau-and-hong-kong/

All the YOY retail sales comparisons, distorted by the consumption vouchers, will cause a big fluctuation and are good for interesting news headlines. A better picture is to see the current actual retail sales value vs 2018 numbers. I recently read a presentation from one HK REIT that compiled the actual retail sales value and plotted it against 2018 numbers; overall, as of Dec 2023, it was still down 20%. Supermarkets can still hit 90% plus, but Jewellery, watches, and medical were only 2/3 of the 2018 level, so these are probably where the Chinese visitors used to spend money. The other chart I saw was that HK outbound travel had already hit 100% of the pre-COVID level in Dec 2023, but inbound visitors were only at 60%. HK's way of life has always been going to Shenzhen and spending money there; if Chinese visitors don't return, their retail sales from a value perspective won't return to the 2018 level anytime soon. I am not going to discuss any REIT specifically. If you want to look at the slides, they are from that REIT that used to be listed on SGX and then totally moved out.
 

stanlawj

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The only motivation I can think of is to buy branded goods; some branded goods have certain global pricing, and there is VAT in China, whereas Hong Kong doesn't. Recently, the HK govt requested an increase in duty-free spending, and they got an increase from RMB 5k to RMB 15k, so they are betting on people coming over for high-value purchases. The other thing is that not all residents from China can freely visit HK; only certain cities are on the individual travel scheme list, and they have recently added another 9.

https://www.asgam.com/index.php/202...sit-scheme-for-travel-to-macau-and-hong-kong/

All the YOY retail sales comparisons, distorted by the consumption vouchers, will cause a big fluctuation and are good for interesting news headlines. A better picture is to see the current actual retail sales value vs 2018 numbers. I recently read a presentation from one HK REIT that compiled the actual retail sales value and plotted it against 2018 numbers; overall, as of Dec 2023, it was still down 20%. Supermarkets can still hit 90% plus, but Jewellery, watches, and medical were only 2/3 of the 2018 level, so these are probably where the Chinese visitors used to spend money. The other chart I saw was that HK outbound travel had already hit 100% of the pre-COVID level in Dec 2023, but inbound visitors were only at 60%. HK's way of life has always been going to Shenzhen and spending money there; if Chinese visitors don't return, their retail sales from a value perspective won't return to the 2018 level anytime soon. I am not going to discuss any REIT specifically. If you want to look at the slides, they are from that REIT that used to be listed on SGX and then totally moved out.
The real serious issue with HK is the CCP (or CPC) crackdown on the financial sector, which is the bulwark of HK economy. The ex-British masters/overlords basically only know how to shuffle money around. Hence HK was positioned as a financial hub prior to the handover to China. When the HK citizens took over, they simply ran the place like their British overlords, eventually leading to the *class problems (rich vs poor).

*You can scream about freedom and rights, but like in SG, middle and lower class are actually enslaved to the banks through long huge mortgages for homes. I don't know if ppl are wise enough to differentiate the forms of enslavement.

I think HK is experiencing creative destruction. How the HK will be positioned UNIQUELY in the international market is yet to be seen. Hence the long downtrend in property price, rents, REITS. I'm wondering if all the bad news and bad future has been priced in yet (is the bottom in yet?). If bad news cause price to go down, then the bottom is not yet in as the price hasn't diverged from the news.

Residential price index: https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/housing-index

HSI Property constituent stock prices: http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/market/index/hk-index-con.aspx?index=HSP&t=1&s=&o=1&p=
 
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DevilPlate

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The real serious issue with HK is the CCP (or CPC) crackdown on the financial sector, which is the bulwark of HK economy. The ex-British masters/overlords basically only know how to shuffle money around. Hence HK was positioned as a financial hub prior to the handover to China. When the HK citizens took over, they simply ran the place like their British overlords, eventually leading to the *class problems (rich vs poor).

*You can scream about freedom and rights, but like in SG, middle and lower class are actually enslaved to the banks through long huge mortgages for homes. I don't know if ppl are wise enough to differentiate the forms of enslavement.

I think HK is experiencing creative destruction. How the HK will be positioned UNIQUELY in the international market is yet to be seen. Hence the long downtrend in property price, rents, REITS. I'm wondering if all the bad news and bad future has been priced in yet (is the bottom in yet?). If bad news cause price to go down, then the bottom is not yet in as the price hasn't diverged from the news.

Residential price index: https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/housing-index

HSI Property constituent stock prices: http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/market/index/hk-index-con.aspx?index=HSP&t=1&s=&o=1&p=
But why u bother?

Tot yr forte is trading fast in fast out?
 

stanlawj

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But why u bother?

Tot yr forte is trading fast in fast out?
Learning is important. Especially real estate sector which always receives money printed out of thin air by the banks. If don't learn, you'll be the one-shot lucky guy, that makes a lot of money only once then lose everything next time.
 

DevilPlate

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Learning is important. Especially real estate sector which always receives money printed out of thin air by the banks. If don't learn, you'll be the one-shot lucky guy, that makes a lot of money only once then lose everything next time.
Trader dont look at macro factors right?

All they care is TA and simi price action/momentum
 

stanlawj

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Trader dont look at macro factors right?

All they care is TA and simi price action/momentum
Depends on the trader. You can check this thread for more details.

Previously, i stated that TA alone cannot guarantee success, especially for longer term positions and larger moves, and one needs information outside the chart.

Here's the evidence from someone who crossed from institution to prop trading.



What's covered: Regional banking crisis, Bitcoin, MSTR, China ADRs (BABA), PYPL, NVDA

The time frame is the differentiator. My time frame is not short enough to ignore macro, but not so long term till it can be ignored like Adam Khoo's lazy approach to investing.
 

limster

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As for Singapore, I am nibbling some REITs because I suspect that there will be forex upside. I am not one of those who believes that S$ can continuously appreciate in a straight line.... 🤔 💲

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...re-stocks-british-portfolios-end-mixed-friday

There were some that were worried about losing money because they thought that S$ would continue appreciating. I was not one of them.... to me, S$ seemed overpriced at the start of the year.

GBP and A$ have been slowly creeping upwards. REITs with UK and Aussie properties should benefit. (FLCT? :cool:)
 

limster

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Bought some FLCT today at $0.940. Taking into account that $0.035 div was paid recently, I think this is a good starting point to restart buying and averaging down :unsure:

Averaging down. Done @ $0.925. Next stop $0.90 🤔
 

MichealScott

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Don't know why sell down in the first place. Not all reits are down today.

FLCT has been in sell down recently.
it is because of the substantial % of debt expiring and market is concern about their refinancing in this high interest rate environment.
 

limster

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Averaging down. Done @ $0.925. Next stop $0.90 🤔

As mentioned earliier, I am following a rule where every time I buy individual stock, I must buy ETF to balance out and diversify.

While my FLCT is flatlining at $0.930 which is around my purchase prices of $0.94 and $0.925, all my ETF purchases of VWRD, VHYD and WQDV go up in price everyday..... 🤔
 

stanlawj

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it is because of the substantial % of debt expiring and market is concern about their refinancing in this high interest rate environment.
Don't know why sell down in the first place. Not all reits are down today.

FLCT has been in sell down recently.

Shortists targeting this stock. Heavy shortselling while there is lack of buying. I doubt it is due to debt issues alone.
Daily volume between 3M to 17M, but short selling volume can reach up to 9M (on Monday, July 8).
In percentage terms for that day's activities: 9M/17M = 53% !!!
 
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