USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[d5dude]

I don't want to type out a long thesis. So, i will just keep it simple.
The bull market has really been going on since the last crisis (2008 ish). So, more than a decade of a bull market pumped up by the printing press. You don't really think it's supposed to last forever, right?

Going a little deeper. What are the bright spots in the US economy or even the global economy right now?
The USA is US$35 trillion in debt. Japan is worse on a percentage basis.
18 million to 20 million illegal migrants in the USA. Rampant crime and theft. Ordinary people can't make ends meet and they have to put daily expenses on credit card debt. China is starting on its lost decade with its property market in the doldrums and it will age itself out of existence.
War in Ukraine-Russia. War in Gaza-Israel and may become even bigger just based on the last week.
Myanmar still in civil war but largely irrelevant. UK government has no money. Germany isn't doing too well either. Canada is in bad shape too. Australia government has no money.
Singapore? Singapore has a lower birth rate than Japan (population growth = GDP growth).
And, i can go on and on. But, i won't. People should get the picture.

Now, stocks can go up for the next month or the next year even. I can't tell you exactly when.
But, mark my words. A massive global economic depression is on the way and it cannot be avoided.

I also want to be clear about one thing. How the stock market goes actually should not be having any influence on the FED. That's not part of their mandate. So, the stock market goes down and they want to have an emergency meeting? That should not be happening and i hope its not true and just a rumor.

So where do you put your money? Theres a 100% probability that rates will be cut to zero if we get a global depression, FD or Tbills wont yield much above zero in such a scenario.

 

[d5dude]

VIX is coming off sharply and volume in the futures have tapered off. Bottom looks at 5120 looks secure with a nice excess low. Might go sideways along here for a while to hammer out a bottom.

Possible since the VIX spiked massively yesterday, I saw that it went to 65 or something... crazy considering it only ever went that high during the covid crash and 2008 GFC.

 

[aurvandil]

Possible since the VIX spiked massively yesterday, I saw that it went to 65 or something... crazy considering it only ever went that high during the covid crash and 2008 GFC.

Order flow is all over the place and hard to get a firm read. Likely to be choppy today which I suppose is to be expected after such a big move.

 

[final1]

So where do you put your money? Theres a 100% probability that rates will be cut to zero if we get a global depression, FD or Tbills wont yield much above zero in such a scenario.

Honestly, i have been on the sidelines since around May.

 

[d5dude]

Honestly, i have been on the sidelines since around May.

I suppose you are going to be on the sidelines forever since you think we are on the cusp of a "global depression".

 

[kickass22]

I don't want to type out a long thesis. So, i will just keep it simple.
The bull market has really been going on since the last crisis (2008 ish). So, more than a decade of a bull market pumped up by the printing press. You don't really think it's supposed to last forever, right?

Going a little deeper. What are the bright spots in the US economy or even the global economy right now?
The USA is US$35 trillion in debt. Japan is worse on a percentage basis.
18 million to 20 million illegal migrants in the USA. Rampant crime and theft. Ordinary people can't make ends meet and they have to put daily expenses on credit card debt. China is starting on its lost decade with its property market in the doldrums and it will age itself out of existence.
War in Ukraine-Russia. War in Gaza-Israel and may become even bigger just based on the last week.
Myanmar still in civil war but largely irrelevant. UK government has no money. Germany isn't doing too well either. Canada is in bad shape too. Australia government has no money.
Singapore? Singapore has a lower birth rate than Japan (population growth = GDP growth).
And, i can go on and on. But, i won't. People should get the picture.

Now, stocks can go up for the next month or the next year even. I can't tell you exactly when.
But, mark my words. A massive global economic depression is on the way and it cannot be avoided.

I also want to be clear about one thing. How the stock market goes actually should not be having any influence on the FED. That's not part of their mandate. So, the stock market goes down and they want to have an emergency meeting? That should not be happening and i hope its not true and just a rumor.

Hmmm....you seem to listing every problem in the world, the problem with that is that, the world always has problems, but not all problems cause a stock market crash. Some of the issues you listed can create sparks that can lead to bigger problems that can lead to counter-party issues leading to economic issues.

The really is that no one really knows what will trigger it, it can be small downturn or a full blow crash. But in the age of AI and algorithmic trading, there will be a lot of these quick issues.

I feel that if you have a very clear investment or trading strategy and follow accordingly you will get by well.

By the way, AMD hit 120 yesterday and bounced back to 140. That was a good trade.
However the World index barely moved like 2 to 3% or something.

Just a rant.

 

[final1]

Hmmm....you seem to listing every problem in the world, the problem with that is that, the world always has problems, but not all problems cause a stock market crash. Some of the issues you listed can create sparks that can lead to bigger problems that can lead to counter-party issues leading to economic issues.

The really is that no one really knows what will trigger it, it can be small downturn or a full blow crash. But in the age of AI and algorithmic trading, there will be a lot of these quick issues.

I feel that if you have a very clear investment or trading strategy and follow accordingly you will get by well.

By the way, AMD hit 120 yesterday and bounced back to 140. That was a good trade.
However the World index barely moved like 2 to 3% or something.

Just a rant.

Perhaps you are misinterpreting my comments as if I am saying whether to buy stocks or not. I make no such recommendations.

My response is about when and if a major recession occurs as opposed to having a shallow landing.

 

[final1]

I suppose you are going to be on the sidelines forever since you think we are on the cusp of a "global depression".

Don't be sarcastic. Thanks. I won't comment further besides what I already said about having been on the sidelines since May.

We will see if I am right or wrong later on.

 

[d9_lives]

Don't be sarcastic. Thanks. I won't comment further besides what I already said about having been on the sidelines since May.

We will see if I am right or wrong later on.

Brah....you look like you know what's going on.
I believe u. Now show us your puts and short positions.

 

[DevilPlate]

I don't want to type out a long thesis. So, i will just keep it simple.
The bull market has really been going on since the last crisis (2008 ish). So, more than a decade of a bull market pumped up by the printing press. You don't really think it's supposed to last forever, right?

Going a little deeper. What are the bright spots in the US economy or even the global economy right now?
The USA is US$35 trillion in debt. Japan is worse on a percentage basis.
18 million to 20 million illegal migrants in the USA. Rampant crime and theft. Ordinary people can't make ends meet and they have to put daily expenses on credit card debt. China is starting on its lost decade with its property market in the doldrums and it will age itself out of existence.
War in Ukraine-Russia. War in Gaza-Israel and may become even bigger just based on the last week.
Myanmar still in civil war but largely irrelevant. UK government has no money. Germany isn't doing too well either. Canada is in bad shape too. Australia government has no money.
Singapore? Singapore has a lower birth rate than Japan (population growth = GDP growth).
And, i can go on and on. But, i won't. People should get the picture.

Now, stocks can go up for the next month or the next year even. I can't tell you exactly when.
But, mark my words. A massive global economic depression is on the way and it cannot be avoided.

I also want to be clear about one thing. How the stock market goes actually should not be having any influence on the FED. That's not part of their mandate. So, the stock market goes down and they want to have an emergency meeting? That should not be happening and i hope its not true and just a rumor.

Next recession, US gona prints loads and after that leads to hyperinflation hitting 20%+ and sovereign debt bubble finally burst that leads to global depression—-David Hunter

 

[DevilPlate]

So where do you put your money? Theres a 100% probability that rates will be cut to zero if we get a global depression, FD or Tbills wont yield much above zero in such a scenario.

Doomsayers say Gold/Silver/BTC/Real estate/farmland —-Robert K.

 

[sohguanh]

Relax today Japan Taiwan Korea fight back. China also a bit. So if you diversify enough should be ok. Worry is when every single country index like yesterday all sink into red that is what I worry. Now also into Gold Silver also. Now Europe index also green a bit.

 

[DevilPlate]

Relax today Japan Taiwan Korea fight back. China also a bit. So if you diversify enough should be ok. Worry is when every single country index like yesterday all sink into red that is what I worry. Now also into Gold Silver also. Now Europe index also green a bit.

Only covid share price keep dropping non stop.

If smthing big brewing, then it will be kinda like 08 GFC that takes 1yr+ to find a bottom with a few dead cat bounces

 

[twosix]

Only covid share price keep dropping non stop.

If smthing big brewing, then it will be kinda like 08 GFC that takes 1yr+ to find a bottom with a few dead cat bounces

If u have already experienced Covid times, then you should be battle hardened. This one is small case de.

In fact, this one is to give people with spare cash opportunities to pick up discounted stocks.

 

[final1]

Only covid share price keep dropping non stop.

If smthing big brewing, then it will be kinda like 08 GFC that takes 1yr+ to find a bottom with a few dead cat bounces

Duing covid-19, share prices were hit for awhile at the start but actually instead went up alot in a short time once all the economic stimulus came in in various countries like the USA which really gave out alot - in fact, so much that many people just put their covid stimulus cheques in stocks since they didn't actually need the money. There was not any major economic depression during covid on the level of 2008.
Just to be factually correct.

 

[final1]

Brah....you look like you know what's going on.
I believe u. Now show us your puts and short positions.

sidelines since May. Not sure which part was not clear.

 

[d9_lives]

They don't hold. Sold all my calls for kopi lui.

 

[weng0202]

Duing covid-19, share prices were hit for awhile at the start but actually instead went up alot in a short time once all the economic stimulus came in in various countries like the USA which really gave out alot - in fact, so much that many people just put their covid stimulus cheques in stocks since they didn't actually need the money. There was not any major economic depression during covid on the level of 2008.
Just to be factually correct.

There will always be another crisis in the making. I still think time in market is better than timing the market. Just make sure you save a sum of money when the crash comes.

 

[yslvlys]

Nothing to buy today... All bounced back

 

[d5dude]

There will always be another crisis in the making. I still think time in market is better than timing the market. Just make sure you save a sum of money when the crash comes.

Yea there will certainly be another crisis in the future and stocks will again crash, but this is the price of entry, its what investors pay to own one of the best long term performing asset class in the world.