USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

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d5dude

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aurvandil said:
Sure. My main point is he is trying to implement his original plan which he was unable to do because of covid.
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He did nothing during his first term. USMCA and the China trade deal were a farce and he folded like a cheap suit each time the market threw a tantrum, in fact outside of the late 2018 Powell "policy on auto-pilot" crash and Covid crash, the market did not experience a substantial drawdown from all his tariff threats because most of them werent implemented.

S&P is currently already in a 10% drawdown but Trump is still threatening more tariffs and pain for wall street. I'm sure there is still a Trump put but the strike price is much lower this time.
 
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DevilPlate

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d5dude said:
He did nothing during his first term. USMCA and the China trade deal were a farce and he folded like a cheap suit each time the market threw a tantrum, in fact outside of the late 2018 Powell "policy on auto-pilot" crash and Covid crash, the market did not experience a substantial drawdown from all his tariff threats because most of them werent implemented.

S&P is currently already in a 10% drawdown but Trump is still threatening more tariffs and pain for wall street. I'm sure there is still a Trump put but the strike price is much lower this time.
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My guess he wana forced Powell to cut rates first before any PUT

If unemployment spike up, Trump confirm blame Powell for being too slow to cut rates…..none of his fault whahahaha
 
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stanlawj

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limster said:
INTC to the moon again!

Where are the INTC bros? Why no supporters??? 📈📈📈
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INTC is not predictable.
I don't even dare to buy.

It is like buying TOTO. So if you struck jackpot, how can it be repeated in the future? The board of directors are driving INTC to failure. Pat Gelsinger needs to be reinstated.

Update: INTC's BoD appoints Tan Lip-Bu as CEO.
Unfortunately, Tan Lip-Bu was a strong advocate for spinning off Intel's foundry division. I'm too ideologically against this to trade INTC without bias, as I think Intel should keep their foundry and instead reform their bureaucracy.

Gl3fml0aMAAl93W
 
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aurvandil

aurvandil

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d5dude said:
He did nothing during his first term. USMCA and the China trade deal were a farce and he folded like a cheap suit each time the market threw a tantrum ...
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It has never been about implementing something which works. It has always been about doing something which he can claim is a policy success to voters. Form is everything, substance is nothing.

One of the lessons learnt from Trump 1.0 was that everything took too long. By the time they got done, it was too close to the midterms for them to milk for votes. This time round, they intend to move much faster so that they can get as much political benefit. Trump's greatest fear is a repeat of Trump 1.0 where the Dems retake the House and use it as a base to attack him for the remainder of his term.
 
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aurvandil

aurvandil

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One time framing down has been broken and market is starting to move sideways. Next week is OPEX and Triple witching. Given the big moves and large volumes traded so far, this expiry repositioning will be consequential.

We also have FOMC 19 Mar. Before the pre-FOMC blackout period Powell took the time out to calm and reassure the market. This is NOT normal behaviour and suggest that they are not only watching closely but are ready to act if the selloff becomes unorderly. He ruled out a cut which set the tone for why no cut is expected. It is however expected that he will acknowledge the growth concerns and indicate clearly that the FED will act decisively if the situation demands it.

Market is currently pricing in 3 cuts for 2025. These can very easily go up to 6 25 bps cuts given there are 6 remaining FOMCs for 2025. The question I hope will get asked during the Q&A is if 50 bps cuts are on the table. If Powell say that they are if the need arises, we should get a nice pop.
 
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