USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[stanlawj]

Arggh . From +31% YTD cut down to +16% YTD.
But as long as my stock sold is lower in the future, that's fine... can buy back at lower price.

 

[kickass22]

The global ETF's like ISAC did not drop much yesterday.

 

[cosycatus]

definitely must include ETF in our purchases. My plan is 50/50, 50% ETF, 50% stock pick. I managed to pick up some NVO.

NVO will be a winner. If US don't buy, there are other countries with waiting lists to buy more.

Furthermore, if Europe slap tariffs on LLY, basically its just a reallocation. Euro consumers will switch from LLY drugs to NVO, and vice versa for Euro consumers.

My problem is I always dunno how to sell individual stocks.
Either sell too early and miss rally , or don't sell and miss the high. Only a few times sell rightly. End up psychologically not very balance.

Nowadays I just buy dividend stocks with proven track record and companies with low to no debt or robust cash generation.
Price low enuff, lock in the yield.
Ill sell when the price double without corresponding dividend increase.

Build up cash flow. Every buy gives me 200 to 500 cash per year. Sometimes got lemons but alrite, diversification blunted some of the damage.

Every month got money come into bank account is the best. Real money I can spend and not some paper profits that I can only waaannk to and constantly thinking to sell or not to sell.

 

[stanlawj]

USD falling against CNH for Trump 2.0 tariff war.

This is brand new movement never seen before. Chinese capital fleeing US stock market?

 

[DevilPlate]

USD falling against CNH for Trump 2.0 tariff war.

This is brand new movement never seen before. Chinese capital fleeing US stock market?

Trump trying to balanced their trade with all the tariffs which eventually translate to weaker USD since rest of the world gona earn less USD moving forward?

make sense anot lol

 

[quekkb]

USD falling against CNH for Trump 2.0 tariff war.

This is brand new movement never seen before. Chinese capital fleeing US stock market?

Maybe US try to devalue the USD so that other countries cannot devalue their currency.

 

[DevilPlate]

Maybe US try to devalue the USD so that other countries cannot devalue their currency.

Yes Trump make it very clear that he wants lower USD and lower interest rates

 

[revhappy]

I am sure Trump has an S&P500 level at which he will capitulate. We just don't know what level it is. Maybe he wants to undo the entire Biden rally?

 

[apple459721]

Buffett wins again
Market crashing, Berkshire hit ATH

 

[DevilPlate]

I am sure Trump has an S&P500 level at which he will capitulate. We just don't know what level it is. Maybe he wants to undo the entire Biden rally?

If u believe SPY will eventually reverse back to its mean, then it still have room to fall by 30-40% from here. (SPY ~3500)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4747341-sp500-valuation-flashing-major-warning-signs

 

[DevilPlate]

Buffett wins again
Market crashing, Berkshire hit ATH

Few months ago, many laughed at Buffet being old, irrelevant and retarded lolol

Maybe a good indicator to watch is when Buffet making his first move to buy the dip?

 

[revhappy]

If u believe SPY will eventually reverse back to its mean, then it still have room to fall by 30-40% from here. (SPY ~3500)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4747341-sp500-valuation-flashing-major-warning-signs

I stopped making any speculative bets. As an imminent gonna be early retiree, one mistake and it can do irreparable damage.

 

[aurvandil]

Market moving steadily down. Nice thing about this sell off is the it is very orderly.
Next key level below is the 5200. This will bring us to around 20% decline from ATH and into bear market territory.

 

[DevilPlate]

I stopped making any speculative bets. As an imminent gonna be early retiree, one mistake and it can do irreparable damage.

Last night, i slept throughout surprisingly

 

[DevilPlate]

Market moving steadily down. Nice thing about this sell off is the it is very orderly.
Next key level below is the 5200. This will bring us to around 20% decline from ATH and into bear market territory.

Last night sell off is huge gap down leh….simi steadily down sia

 

[aurvandil]

Last night sell off is huge gap down leh….simi steadily down sia

I am looking at the futures which is open 23 hrs a day. It was steady bom pi pi all the way. There was only hockey stick up and then down during announcement. After that the order flow was quite smooth ... consistent one sided selling and prices auctioning down because not enough buyers. Volume was heavy but not crazy heavy.

 

[apple459721]

I think tonight market will make a bottom, before relief rally.

 

[kickass22]

Am I the only one seeing this or did I get it wrong?

I see the global ETF's not dropping much but some of the U.S stocks are dropping like flies whereas others are dropping big time.

However, if you broaden the timeline, not just from the "Liberation day" , the drop has been slow and steady from the all the time high.

 

[revhappy]

Am I the only one seeing this or did I get it wrong?

I see the global ETF's not dropping much but some of the U.S stocks are dropping like flies whereas others are dropping big time.

However, if you broaden the timeline, not just from the "Liberation day" , the drop has been slow and steady from the all the time high.

VWRA didn't even break it's Aug 2024 yen carry trade unwind triggered low. So you are right, it is mainly the US index heavy weights falling.

 

[limster]

I am sure Trump has an S&P500 level at which he will capitulate. We just don't know what level it is. Maybe he wants to undo the entire Biden rally?

I think its elections and not S&P level...

there are State-level elections happening in the USA all the time. If Republicans start losing all these minor elections (which may be a predictor for mid-terms), U-turn will happen soon

like I mentioned, Trump announced AFTER the Florida special elections, which was smart. If they held the Florida elections now, there might be a swing....