Official Shiny Things thread Episode V, The Empire Strikes Back

[highsulphur]

No changes for me FWIW.

The only unusual action is that I spoke with a couple U.S. residents I know and suggested they try to "front run" upcoming tariffs. That is, if there are non perishable goods they would ordinarily consume that would be affected by tariffs, and if they can stock up at good or great prices, do it.

Its covid round 2!

 

[DevilPlate]

No changes for me FWIW.

The only unusual action is that I spoke with a couple U.S. residents I know and suggested they try to "front run" upcoming tariffs. That is, if there are non perishable goods they would ordinarily consume that would be affected by tariffs, and if they can stock up at good or great prices, do it.

Angmor also so kiasu?

 

[DevilPlate]

Trump and Melania coin not low enough for you?



He could be a grifter and a brave airhead, they are not mutually exclusive.

He is a modern warlord demanding protection fees now

 

[Nesplex]

Angmor also so kiasu?

Our Minister will say xiasuay.

 

[DevilPlate]

I'm gonna stop you right there: there is no goal.

The administration is arguing multiple mutually exclusive goals for tariffs at the same time. Lutnick and Bessent are out there saying that these tariffs are a negotiating tool; while Trump and Miller are saying that the tariffs are not negotiable and aren't going anywhere.

It's not a dollar thing either. All other things being equal, tariffs strengthen a country's currency, because they buy fewer imports. (Yes, this is in tension with Trump's long-stated preference for a weaker dollar and lower rates.)

There's just no evidence that the administration has a goal for their tariff policy, other than "President Trump wants to impose humongous tariffs and then see what happens".

The myth is out!
The goal is basically extorting protection fees (disguised as trade deficits) to help pay for their national debts!
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asi...e-security-products-address-trade-gap-5051036

 

[highsulphur]

The myth is out!
The goal is basically extorting protection fees (disguised as trade deficits) to help pay for their national debts!
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asi...e-security-products-address-trade-gap-5051036

At the expense of job losses and lower growth (lower tax revenue) . Fantastic

 

[DevilPlate]

At the expense of job losses and lower growth (lower tax revenue) . Fantastic

No wor….mathematically GDP will be juiced up by increasing Exports figure!
Some may say liddat also can ar

 

[yslvlys]

No wor….mathematically GDP will be juiced up by increasing Exports figure!
Some may say liddat also can ar

But GDP doesn't help to pay national debt?

 

[DevilPlate]

But GDP doesn't help to pay national debt?

Juicing up GDP is the by-product of forcing rest of the world to buy their larsap goods!
furthermore, later he can claim victory that he help to reduce their debt to gdp ratio!

 

[yslvlys]

The myth is out!
The goal is basically extorting protection fees (disguised as trade deficits) to help pay for their national debts!
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asi...e-security-products-address-trade-gap-5051036

Extort from American corporations (eg. Walmart) , who import overseas goods, which will charge US consumers thru higher prices. Basically paid by Americans for the tariffs.

 

[DevilPlate]

Extort from American corporations (eg. Walmart) , who import overseas goods, which will charge US consumers thru higher prices. Basically paid by Americans for the tariffs.

Alamak…..act as disguise lah
Once country A buy lots of their unwanted stuff, warlord will pardon them with much lower tariff

But i think the 10% universal tariff is here to stay throughout his term
However now China declared All IN fight which hearsay America cannot find alternatives of about 50% of China imported goods and that will cause inflation on China imported goods. Maybe Walmart simply stop importing China goods altogether. Humans quite adaptable…..can adapt and adjust lifestyle? Hahaha

 

[leoch037]

the americans have been living on borrowed money for decades, machiam one who only pay minimum sum or interest of credit card bills
at least now trump is trying to do something to tackle the issue, b4 the debts ballooned to another credit crisis similar to the 2007 subprime

 

[crystalnox]

the americans have been living on borrowed money for decades, machiam one who only pay minimum sum or interest of credit card bills
at least now trump is trying to do something to tackle the issue, b4 the debts ballooned to another credit crisis similar to the 2007 subprime

National debt, and the 2007 subprime debts, are VERY DIFFERENT things. The “subprime” part should already be a very big clue.

 

[leoch037]

National debt, and the 2007 subprime debts, are VERY DIFFERENT things. The “subprime” part should already be a very big clue.

I know they are different, just saying might develop into another "credit" crisis if their debts keep growing in relation to their gdp
Actually the part I'm most worried abt is USD, does the world have a replacement for it?

 

[DevilPlate]

I know they are different, just saying might develop into another "credit" crisis if their debts keep growing in relation to their gdp
Actually the part I'm most worried abt is USD, does the world have a replacement for it?

No replacement in foreseeable future
Thats why they can still weaponise it while it last

 

[DevilPlate]

What should retail do for portfolio? Switch to bitcoin?

Gold bad because China has alot to sell
USD bad because if China sell their bonds, fed have to step in and monetise, effectively devaluing and causing inflation worldwide.
SGD bad? Because SGD is somehow linked to USD which means SGD will be too strong when usd devalue or SGD will be too weak if we intervene

Correlation go to 1, send help pls... Correct me if I'm wrong

No wonder gold has been ramping up, central banks have this gamed out and hedging

Im accumulating BTC…..but limit to 5% of my total liquid portfolio

Anything can happen lolol

 

[leoch037]

Talking abt BTC, anyone using trading platform like octa to "buy and hold"?

I'm using it to invest / "buy" in very small amt of gold and BTC with very little capital, since it offers 500x interest free leverage

I'm not sure how long i can hold onto the trade but somehow i feel I'm not doing it the right way

 

[galkkl]

Hi everyone,

I've been using SCB online trading to purchase ES3/MBH/VWRA.

I've just opened a IBKR account. For local ETFs like ES3/MBH, is it recommended to use IBKR to buy? Or stay with SCB, and use IBKR for VWRA only?

For reference: I'm doing DCA monthly of about $3-4k SGD.

Appreciate any advice!

 

[singaporean11]

the americans have been living on borrowed money for decades, machiam one who only pay minimum sum or interest of credit card bills
at least now trump is trying to do something to tackle the issue, b4 the debts ballooned to another credit crisis similar to the 2007 subprime

Sorry, I cannot understand your logic here about "at least now trump is trying to do something to tackle the issue" by imposing import tax tariffs to solve "americans have been living on borrowed money for decades, machiam one who only pay minimum sum or interest of credit card bills".

How does Trump imposing import tax tariffs solve the problem about Americans overspending? Shouldn't Trump be scolding Americans to stop living on borrowed money and tighten their own belts (instead of trying to rob other countries' of their trade money through imposing import tax tariffs and then threatening other countries that they cannot impose import tax tariffs on US goods and demand other countries to cut their goods' prices to absorb the additional import tax tariffs US Gov implemented) and shouldn't Trump be scolding all Gov Officials for printing USD and spending too much money on Defense, on USAID to spread rumours all around the world, etc. and start planning to put US Gov budget in surplus instead of deficit by cutting US Gov spending?

What I can see is that there are lots of excuses from US Gov for bullying, coercing, threatening and to milk other countries but no real actions to genuinely solve US real problems, which is too much US deficit, particularly through US Gov's too much spending on defense (including the thousands of military bases all around the world), spying (via CIA, NSA, FBI), and also too many druggies and lazy Americans in USA on unemployment benefits etc!

 

[DevilPlate]

Sorry, I cannot understand your logic here about "at least now trump is trying to do something to tackle the issue" by imposing import tax tariffs to solve "americans have been living on borrowed money for decades, machiam one who only pay minimum sum or interest of credit card bills".

How does Trump imposing import tax tariffs solve the problem about Americans overspending? Shouldn't Trump be scolding Americans to stop living on borrowed money and tighten their own belts (instead of trying to rob other countries' of their trade money through imposing import tax tariffs and then threatening other countries that they cannot impose import tax tariffs on US goods and demand other countries to cut their goods' prices to absorb the additional import tax tariffs US Gov implemented) and shouldn't Trump be scolding all Gov Officials for printing USD and spending too much money on Defense, on USAID to spread rumours all around the world, etc. and start planning to put US Gov budget in surplus instead of deficit by cutting US Gov spending?

What I can see is that there are lots of excuses from US Gov for bullying, coercing, threatening and to milk other countries but no real actions to genuinely solve US real problems, which is too much US deficit, particularly through US Gov's too much spending on defense (including the thousands of military bases all around the world), spying (via CIA, NSA, FBI), and also too many druggies and lazy Americans in USA on unemployment benefits etc!

I called him WarLord for a reason.

China battle is very crucial for the rest of the world.
Else Warlord demands will only escalate and eventually each and everyone of us will be robbed to pay for their debts.