not really. its logically valid because of the caveat at the end. interesting possibilities.
scenario 1 : scaleback. if they form part of skyteam alliance, Northwest/JAL could provide similar route services but with only one jet (the rest, codeshare on that flight), reducing the need to deploy multiple aircraft to serve route. = route capacity cut. Its different from continental & UA because 1) not under jurisdiction of US courts, 2) unlikely that between them, carriers control % of route capacity that will allow them to dominate market and control pricing 3) codesharing = strategic alliance to maximize revenue for deployment of aircraft per route / increased appeal of carrier/airline due to increased connectivity options
JAL might want to scale back to reassess what is efficient as its deploying relatively older aircraft/fuel efficiency/competition (everyone else is operating something newer) (767) compared to NWA's a330. i dont think NWA is required to file for anti-trust/competition for overseas route with JAL ? should be pure and simple business decision since it doesent involve US market.
scenario 2:status quo remains. given the fact that current capacity on the route SQ (A380,747 and 777 via BKK daily; BKK currently suspended, uncertain if restored), ANA (777 X2 daily flights), UA (777 X1 flight) NWA (1 X A330) JAL (1X 767) is likely to be indicative of a highly profitable/high demand route. pie is big enough for jetstar to come in. everyone operates the same way. some extent of codesharing between NWA and JAL (surplus capacity)
scenario 3: JAL withdraws from route. refocus on more profitable routes. (although i think its unlikely given the sin-NRT route is quite a big money spinner). jetstar soak up market position
5 A330 on lease from parent company quantas. Jetstar CEO has gone on record that they are targeting the china and european routes. interesting possibilities.
what is definite and forseeable is that Jetstar is likely to set and define lower end of price range. lower price point = downward price pressure on other competitors. if SQ thinks it can sell 1,100 tickets from SIN-NRT its crazy.
remember. SQ alone accounts for 50% of capacity in this sector. will consumers pay so much for this route ? SQ is likely to have to move into the medium high price bracket to maintain price competitiveness.