Milo's TA discussion and sharing thread

[Milo-Dino]

OCBC

HI Milo,

would like to listen the heartbeat for OCBC.

would u mind sharing?

Due to the sale of APB and F&N, there's a chance for a fat dividend this year. (this despite the fact they said it would be used for capital reasons)

Daily chart shows resistance at 9.93 and support around the 9.67-75 region.
However, a bearish divergence has developed and the rally maybe running out of steam.

Weekly wise, the resistance is the same with support at about 9.50. Once again, the divergence is prominent for quite some time.

It's still trading in the channel with maybe upside target at 10.20-30 if it breaks past 9.93 and 10. Downside is probably about 9.30

 

[Sinkie]

See whether can close above 1.815 first

I remember people pricing in OSIM earnings so don't be surprise if tomorrow don't move up much

nice, some of my clients exited at 183 le

gxgx

 

[leozzz]

nice, some of my clients exited at 183 le

gxgx

and i went in at 1.83

 

[remy3413]

and i went in at 1.83

Factoring the dividends they declare, no breakout.

 

[remy3413]

nice, some of my clients exited at 183 le

gxgx

Congrats lol, in fact if OSIM post lousy results, it will tank

Another classic example of buy on rumors sell on news

 

[Sinkie]

and i went in at 1.83

the chart was pending breakout prior to the earning catalyst, probably attracted a few punters like a few of us, probably need to clear these group of punters first.. but well if entry already made, finger crossed, see can run road 185 or 186 or not?

 

[leozzz]

Factoring the dividends they declare, no breakout.

Should I hold on still or just exit

 

[remy3413]

Should I hold on still or just exit

You have to make your own call, I don't want to get blamed haha

Don't need to sell first see how it closes for today lo, cut loss at 1.80

 

[leozzz]

You have to make your own call, I don't want to get blamed haha

Don't need to sell first see how it closes for today lo, cut loss at 1.80

hhaha no lah i am not that kind of person who blames others lah...chill bro..hahah..ok thanks!

 

[Sinkie]

Congrats lol, in fact if OSIM post lousy results, it will tank

Another classic example of buy on rumors sell on news

well, we anticipate the breakout with earning cataylst, but not all ascending triangle will breakout if there is an unexpected bad catalyst like the june 2011 ascending triangle

why did it breakdown unexpectedly? it was the convertible bond issue of $120,000,000

Spoiler

Macq 21 June 2011
OSIM International
Was the bond issue so bad?
Event
ƒ OSIM, one of our MarQuee buy ideas, is down 18% in the past week after the
company raised S$120m through a convertible bond issue. We believe the
selldown was driven mainly by investor anxiety over a possible large acquisition
by OSIM given its strong cash position. We spoke to OSIM’s management to
gain clarity on the reasons for the bond issue and believe this has been widely
misunderstood. With the core organic growth firmly in place, we believe there
is deep value in the stock at current valuations (12.4x 2012E PER).
Impact
ƒ Why the bond issue?: OSIM raised S$120m through 5-year convertible
bonds on 7 June with a coupon of 2.75% and conversion price of S$2.025.
⇒ TDR delayed, thus expected cash levels have depleted: The TDR was
launched on 27 April with a six-month window. Given market volatility, the
TDR could be postponed further, thus setting back cash plans by ~S$70m.
⇒ To perk up cash levels at favourable terms in a volatile market:
OSIM’s gross cash position at end-1Q11 was S$57m. Post bond issue,
we believe the gross cash level is ~S$229m (additional S$32m from
warrants expiry and S$20m from FCF). This provides the company with
cash cushion to fund its China expansion plans, working capital and small
acquisitions (about S$30–60m each).
ƒ Any large acquisitions in the near future? Management has mentioned
that it is looking only at small acquisitions to the tune of S$30–60m each and
1–2 such acquisitions annually. The strategy remains the same as with TWG
(branded product, retail franchise, small in size and can be plugged into its
existing China franchise).
ƒ Focus needs to be back on core business fundamentals: Driven by the
success of “Udivine” chair and the organic growth in China, OSIM’s quarterly
earnings have moved to the ~S$20m zone from S$12–13m earlier. We
believe there is strong upside risk to our 2011 PAT estimate of S$70m.
Earnings and target price revision
ƒ No change.
Price catalyst
ƒ 12-month price target: S$2.06 based on a Sum of Parts methodology.
ƒ Catalyst: 2Q11 results on 27 July
Action and recommendation
ƒ Stock at large 30% discount to China consumer names; buy into the
weakness: We believe the selldown has been driven by profit booking and
misunderstanding on the use of cash from the bond issue proceeds. The
stock is now trading at 12.4x 2012E PER vs 17.9x for China consumer
names. We expect earnings upgrades after the 2Q11 results, and see an
opportunity for investors who are focused on OSIM’s core fundamentals to
accumulate the shares at current levels.

so the question now is

so does it really mean spotting a bullish stock pattern, a golden crossover or a bullish TA crossover means the breakout will take place later? or is it still fundemental news that rules and control the price eventually? you guy decide.

combine FA + TA to have a better and higher chance of winning and predicting future movement imo

 

[chainer9999]

well, we anticipate the breakout with earning cataylst, but not all ascending triangle will breakout if there is an unexpected bad catalyst like the june 2011 ascending triangle

why did it breakdown unexpectedly? it was the convertible bond issue of $120,000,000

Spoiler

Macq 21 June 2011
OSIM International
Was the bond issue so bad?
Event
ƒ OSIM, one of our MarQuee buy ideas, is down 18% in the past week after the
company raised S$120m through a convertible bond issue. We believe the
selldown was driven mainly by investor anxiety over a possible large acquisition
by OSIM given its strong cash position. We spoke to OSIM’s management to
gain clarity on the reasons for the bond issue and believe this has been widely
misunderstood. With the core organic growth firmly in place, we believe there
is deep value in the stock at current valuations (12.4x 2012E PER).
Impact
ƒ Why the bond issue?: OSIM raised S$120m through 5-year convertible
bonds on 7 June with a coupon of 2.75% and conversion price of S$2.025.
⇒ TDR delayed, thus expected cash levels have depleted: The TDR was
launched on 27 April with a six-month window. Given market volatility, the
TDR could be postponed further, thus setting back cash plans by ~S$70m.
⇒ To perk up cash levels at favourable terms in a volatile market:
OSIM’s gross cash position at end-1Q11 was S$57m. Post bond issue,
we believe the gross cash level is ~S$229m (additional S$32m from
warrants expiry and S$20m from FCF). This provides the company with
cash cushion to fund its China expansion plans, working capital and small
acquisitions (about S$30–60m each).
ƒ Any large acquisitions in the near future? Management has mentioned
that it is looking only at small acquisitions to the tune of S$30–60m each and
1–2 such acquisitions annually. The strategy remains the same as with TWG
(branded product, retail franchise, small in size and can be plugged into its
existing China franchise).
ƒ Focus needs to be back on core business fundamentals: Driven by the
success of “Udivine” chair and the organic growth in China, OSIM’s quarterly
earnings have moved to the ~S$20m zone from S$12–13m earlier. We
believe there is strong upside risk to our 2011 PAT estimate of S$70m.
Earnings and target price revision
ƒ No change.
Price catalyst
ƒ 12-month price target: S$2.06 based on a Sum of Parts methodology.
ƒ Catalyst: 2Q11 results on 27 July
Action and recommendation
ƒ Stock at large 30% discount to China consumer names; buy into the
weakness: We believe the selldown has been driven by profit booking and
misunderstanding on the use of cash from the bond issue proceeds. The
stock is now trading at 12.4x 2012E PER vs 17.9x for China consumer
names. We expect earnings upgrades after the 2Q11 results, and see an
opportunity for investors who are focused on OSIM’s core fundamentals to
accumulate the shares at current levels.

IS TAT A POTENTIAL CUP N HANDLE

 

[Sinkie]

IS TAT A POTENTIAL CUP N HANDLE

 

[chainer9999]

The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout.

 

[Sinkie]

and i went in at 1.83

gxgx day high 1855

 

[Sinkie]

eratat, rebound off zhun zhun, but can move further up or go back 125? i favor a 125 else if 135 break, it shd go 140

 

[Sinkie]

Spoiler

research reports
DJ Sembawang Drops Bid for Macmahon's Construction Unit - 13/1/2013
DJ MARKET TALK: Deutsche Bank Tips Keppel Over SembMarine - 9/1/2013

Spoiler

0903 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: While both Keppel (BN4.SG) and SembMarine (S51.SG) are well positioned to benefit from increased industry spending and replacement opportunities, Deutsche Bank prefers Keppel. "SembMarine is currently at a build-up stage for two large new yards, which we believe could involve more risks as operations begin." SembMarine's 2013-15 margins may be pressured as drillship contracts are executed in Brazil as it is new to drillship construction and the yard, currently under construction, may face potential cost overruns, skilled labor shortages, construction delays and other teething issues typical for new Brazilian facilities, it says. It expects SembMarine's new Singapore yard may face some labor issues as the government controls foreign labor, while the departure of the long-time senior marketing personnel and the recent jack-up-rig mishap are also areas to monitor. Keppel's strategy of being near markets and customers is paying off, with its Brazil yard one of the country's "most experienced" facilities, putting it in a good position to execute, it says. It sets Keppel's target at S$13.50 and Sembcorp's (U96.SG) at S$6.35, rating both Buy. It rates SembMarine at Hold with S$4.90 target. (leslie.shaffer@dowjones.com)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140; MarketTalk@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 09, 2013 04:03 ET (09:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2013 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Conglomerates (Keppel, Sembcorp Marine, Sembcorp Ind) - DB - 9/1/2013
DJ Sembawang Disappointed November Material Disclosure of Interest Rejected - 6/1/2013
DJ MARKET TALK: Sembcorp May Cut Its Gallant Stake -Credit Suisse - 7/12/2012

still on track, adjust support abit down after kepcorp result

 

[Sinkie]

Spoiler

cordlife is on a slow uptrend channel. is either a double top at 60c or hit the resistence at 635c

ipo px at 55 iirc

news and research
*DJ China Cord Blood Corp Announces Completion Of Strategic Partnership With Cordlife Group Limited --> 12/11/2012
*DJ Cordlife Group Target Raised To S$0.62 From S$0.53 By UOB KayHian --> 14/9/2012

expected earnings
Cordlife Group Ltd CLGL SP 15/02/2013 E

one more attempt to kiss the resistence.

can they do it? good support at 60c.

zhun zhun hit the 636c/64c resistence and come down

 

[Sinkie]

Spoiler

profit taking mode now. today is t+5 for the 2 white candles, the 2 supports should be the orange color line

research
*DJ Sheng Siong Group Fair Value Raised To S$0.55 From S$0.49 By OCBC => 4/12
STOCKS NEWS SINGAPORE-Maybank raises Sheng Siong target price ==> 26/11

either way, up or down, but no strength to go up, not sure is consolidation or distribution or players inside gone holiday

which way?

 

[Sinkie]

tiger, no strength to break the resistence, news out, and they seems bearish on next quarter, should drop to support in this case
-----------

SINGAPORE, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Budget carrier Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd, one-third owned by Singapore Airlines Ltd, reported a third-quarter net profit of S$2 million ($1.6 million), the first time in seven quarters it made money.

Despite a boost from its Singapore business, Tiger expects its operating performance to be weaker in the fourth quarter and forecast an operating loss for the year to March 2013, said the carrier, which has associate airlines in Indonesia and the Philippines.

After taking charge in August, new Group Chief Executive Koay Peng Yen struck a deal to sell a stake in its loss-making Australian unit and entered into other partnerships, but faces a big challenge in a fiercely competitive Southeast Asian market.

"We are encouraged by the turnaround in this quarter," Koay said in the results statement on Thursday. "However, we are mindful that the September to December period is traditionally the strongest quarter for the air travel industry, and this has also contributed positively to our performance."

Budget airlines led by AirAsia Bhd and privately held Lion Air have placed massive aircraft orders as they bet on the region's expanding middle class demanding more air travel for years to come.

Tiger reported a third-quarter profit compared to a net loss of S$17.4 million a year earlier. Its nine-month loss contracted to S$30 million, from S$87.9 million a year earlier.

catalyst spotted..
----------

Tiger Airways Australia has not been put off taking on its potential future parent Virgin Australia with a decision to compete head to head between Sydney and Coffs Harbour from Feb-2013.

The Singapore-owned LCC is steadily rebuilding its franchise after safety regulators grounded the carrier for six weeks in an unprecedented move in Jul-2011. Since its relaunch in Aug-2011 Tiger Australia's aim has been to build a foundation it can expand from without compromising safety processes which led to the grounding, and eventually achieve so-far elusive profitability.

However, Tiger Australia’s fortunes received a major boost with the announcement in Oct-2012 that Virgin Australia would acquire 60% of the carrier, subject to regulatory approvals. While greatly levelling the playing field with Qantas – with its Jetstar LCC brand – the move could dramatically reshape the domestic network by removing a third competitor of any scale and returning the market to a duopoly between the Qantas and Virgin Australia groups.

Tiger Airways has announced five new destinations in 2012 – Cairns, Adelaide, Hobart, Mackay and Coffs Harbour.
----------

feb 7th is the hearing..

all eyes on the feb 7 cataylst

 

[Sinkie]

first glance