Time value of $ comparison between AXA term Annual premium vs TM LPDD Annual premium

Sinkie

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Base on this example

Insurance%20comparison.png


i have tried to tabalute its time value of money using 3% inflation

51IfZ9G.png


please correct me if there is anything wrong, quite a few years didnt do any corporate finance liao :s22:

Imo, surrender value of the wl in the later part will "deflate"

But isn't a wl plan will stops premium payment once hit 65 but I will be assuming and base on the example given
 
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DevilCurseYou

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You are using discount rate of 3%. A dollar in 2014 is worth 0.97 in 2013. So a dollar in 2013 is worth 1.0309 in 2014. the inflation/investment rate is 3.09%. A little pedantic here, but this small difference make a big difference in cases of big percentages, or long time.

For financial product, investment rate rather than inflation rate is normally used. While we do not like inflation, there is nothing we can do about inflation. We are concerned with maximising the return, hence the use of investment rate.

C[age=71] represent the value of you will be paying for the entire term life policy, at 2013 value(net present value). However, I am unsure how you obtained the value for D[age=71]

You are missing out one payment for the whole life policy. There are total of 25 payments, but your calculation only has 24. Whole life policy has different type of payment, some limited pay, some pay throughout the life of the policy. Limited pay can be 10/15/25 or any number of years of payment, not necessarily stopping at 65.

G[age=55] represents the amount you will pay for whole life policy in 2013 value.

Column H, in short, does not make sense. Unless you are trying to find out what value you are paying for in term of 2012/2011/1990 value. Another case is that you are only applying for the policy 2014/2015/2030, and you are calculating how much money you need to prepare in 2013.

Column I, is invalid for age 31 to 70, since the coverage is 200k rather than 80k. If we were to take I[age=99], yes it means that the death benefit is 10082.49 in 2013 value. Note that this is only part of the death benefit. The total death benefit is surrender value+death benefit from this 80k+maybe some extra.

Imo, surrender value of the wl in the later part will "deflate" if it's not invested in the long run so if comparing between a term plan and a wholelife, term plan is still better
While I like your conclusion, your table does not support the first statement. Your table does not show the surrender value of whole life. Your table has shown part of the death benefit(80k). To get the surrender value for different years, you have to ask an agent to generate it for you.
 

Sinkie

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You are using discount rate of 3%. A dollar in 2014 is worth 0.97 in 2013. So a dollar in 2013 is worth 1.0309 in 2014. the inflation/investment rate is 3.09%. A little pedantic here, but this small difference make a big difference in cases of big percentages, or long time.

Well, 3% is just a random number closer to inflation. Well, I'm trying not to confuse non-finance people.

its easier to tell people that money shrink in the future but it's confusing to them that money must be invested to prevent it from shrinking

Your example and methdology will show that you can buy a car with this $80,000 now and today but in the future, a car is probably gonna worth >$80,000 (like $160,000) in the future, but my example and methodology will show a $80,000 today can buy u a car now but a $80,000 in the future can probably buy u a wheel or even a baby seat only

in x years later, you still still take back $80,000, but how much and what the real value after inflation of this $80,000 exactly gonna be? For example, when you are 71 years old, (40 years later), the $80,000 ur spouse will take back (probably can buy u a toyota vios today in 2013) is only worth $23,000 in real value (Probably $80,000 can buy u a COE only in 2053).

For financial product, investment rate rather than inflation rate is normally used. While we do not like inflation, there is nothing we can do about inflation. We are concerned with maximising the return, hence the use of investment rate.

Well, insurance is not investment, investment is not insurance, so im not concerned with maximising return but rather the time value of money and also that why they added investment into insurance to "trick" and "confuse"

So the purpose of this table is to show the value of money and not showing the opportunity cost of not investing. Do not be confused.

C[age=71] represent the value of you will be paying for the entire term life policy, at 2013 value(net present value). However, I am unsure how you obtained the value for D[age=71]

Column D represent the time value of your insurance coverage, that guarantee sum u get when u uplorry which means if u uplorry at x year, how much will your insurance coverage erode with inflation.

You are missing out one payment for the whole life policy. There are total of 25 payments, but your calculation only has 24. Whole life policy has different type of payment, some limited pay, some pay throughout the life of the policy. Limited pay can be 10/15/25 or any number of years of payment, not necessarily stopping at 65.

Missing 1 payment doesn't make a big difference, I came out with my calculation base on your example. My previous wholelife plan is until 65.

G[age=55] represents the amount you will pay for whole life policy in 2013 value.

Column H, in short, does not make sense. Unless you are trying to find out what value you are paying for in term of 2012/2011/1990 value. Another case is that you are only applying for the policy 2014/2015/2030, and you are calculating how much money you need to prepare in 2013.

Column I, is invalid for age 31 to 70, since the coverage is 200k rather than 80k. If we were to take I[age=99], yes it means that the death benefit is 10082.49 in 2013 value. Note that this is only part of the death benefit. The total death benefit is surrender value+death benefit from this 80k+maybe some extra.

As usual, I need more details, but base on my previous whoelife, the surrender value will usually be slightly more than $54,000, the total amount of premium paid. So even though you will still take back about $130,000 ($80,000+$54,000), the table will show the after inflation value of this $130,000 in that particular year

While I like your conclusion, your table does not support the first statement. Your table does not show the surrender value of whole life. Your table has shown part of the death benefit(80k). To get the surrender value for different years, you have to ask an agent to generate it for you.

Yes, as usual, I came out with this table base on your calculation.

I would appreciate if an agent could provide me with the table to allow me to show that inflation will erode your death coverage in the long run. And how a $80,000 death coverage that your spouse will collect can only be worth less than $10,000 after 40 years even

And another conclusion from my calculation is this term plan is not really worth it in term of the premium paid and the death covetage. Pruterm vantage has lower premium and higher coverage.
 
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Mecisteus

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the inflation rate is irrelevant into discussion because it affects both methods. so you can ignore inflation rate. the reason why nominal investment rate is in the picture because you want to try to compare investment value of BTITR with the cash value of a WL. even the projected returns of a WL is base on a nominal investment rate.

try to get all the basics right first.

and one more thing, there isnt any need to create another thread just because you dont like his/her title.
 
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Sinkie

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the inflation rate is irrelevant into discussion because it affects both methods. so you can ignore inflation rate. the reason why nominal investment rate is in the picture because you want to try to compare investment value of BTITR with the cash value of a WL. even the projected returns of a WL is base on a nominal investment rate.

try to get all the basics right first.

and one more thing, there isnt any need to create another thread just because you dont like his/her title.

no, im not trying to compare the investment value of BTITR strategy vs a wholelife, im trying to show that inflation will erode the death benefit in the long run and i did not add into the equation of taking the money saved from buying term and putting it into an etf too because that will be irrelevant to the discussion in this thread.

there are peoples who think he bought a term plan and is covered for 200k and happily think it is enough, but unknowingly in 40 years later, 200k is not really alot for their spouse and family if anything happens.

so what is 200k today, may not be 200k in 40 years or even 60 years later let alone say 60k

and also, this thread focus is about time value of money, not about BTITR vs wholelife strategy

thank you very much for your reply.
 
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Mecisteus

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so what is 200k today, may not be 200k in 40 years or even 60 years later

1) isnt this obvious?
2) and it applies to death benefits from WL

last thing, your topic is misleading to me too. time value comparison of what? payouts from insurance or the investment value???

Devil already opened up a new thread about TM WL vs BTTITR to move away from the FSM 50% rebates. your this discussion is relevant there. so there is no need to create this thread actually.
 

Sinkie

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1) isnt this obvious?
2) and it applies to death benefits from WL

last thing, your topic is misleading to me too. time value comparison of what? payouts from insurance or the investment value???

Devil already opened up a new thread about TM WL vs BTTITR to move away from the FSM 50% rebates. your this discussion is relevant there. so there is no need to create this thread actually.

what is obvious for us might nt be obvious for other, you try to ask around, there are people who think they have wl plan, more than enough if anything happens to them in the future.

and once again, i am not discussing about TM WL vs BTTITR (buy term, invest the rest), please do not mislead and divert my scope of discussion away in this thread to the scope of wl vs bttitr discussion too.

and i stress again, i am using inflation to show that what is 200k today, might not be 200k in 40 years time.

Please refer to the thread title again --> Time value of $ comparison between 'AXA term Annual premium' vs 'TM LPDD Annual premium'

dear mod,

if it is misleading, please change the title of this thread for me too

thank you very much
 
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DevilCurseYou

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Well, 3% is just a random number closer to inflation. Well, I'm trying not to confuse non-finance people.

its easier to tell people that money shrink in the future but it's confusing to them that money must be invested to prevent it from shrinking
My point is discount rate=/= inflation/investment rate. I am ensuring the non-finance people has a good foundation to avoid such confusion in the future.


Column D represent the time value of your insurance coverage, that guarantee sum u get when u uplorry which means if u uplorry at x year, how much will your insurance coverage erode with inflation.
yes, column D for age 31 to 70 shows the value of insurance coverage in 2013 terms. My question is, what value does D[age=71] represents?


Missing 1 payment doesn't make a big difference, I came out with my calculation base on your example. My previous wholelife plan is until 65.
As stated in the title, you want to compare between the 2 plans. You are being unfair to the term plan by omitting some payment of the whole life plan in your calculation.

Please tell us how much self-created error you want in your calculation, and I will keep my comments to that.

As usual, I need more details, but base on my previous whoelife, the surrender value will usually be slightly more than $54,000, the total amount of premium paid. So even though you will still take back about $130,000 ($80,000+$54,000), the table will show the after inflation value of this $130,000 in that particular year
Where did you get 54000? Is it from your own personal policy? IIRC, this policy is for a female aged 31.

And another conclusion from my calculation is this term plan is not really worth it in term of the premium paid and the death covetage. Pruterm vantage has lower premium and higher coverage.
What is the benefits of Pruterm vantage that you saw? Death and TPD only? Does it include CI? I suggest you get your table correct first, before you draw anymore conclusion.

no, im not trying to compare the investment value of BTITR strategy vs a wholelife, im trying to show that inflation will erode the death benefit in the long run and i did not add into the equation of taking the money saved from buying term and putting it into an etf too because that will be irrelevant to the discussion in this thread.
I see this thread more as a practice of applying time value of money. Perhaps it is more aptly titled as “A practice at time value of money”
Using inflation to approach the comparison, makes the comparison difficult, if not impossible…
 

Sinkie

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My point is discount rate=/= inflation/investment rate. I am ensuring the non-finance people has a good foundation to avoid such confusion in the future.

according to wiki,

The time value of money is the value of money figuring in a given amount of interest earned or or inflation accruedaccrued over a given amount of time. The ultimate principle suggests that a certain amount of money today has different buying power than the same amount of money in the future. This notion exists both because there is an opportunity to earn interest on the money and because inflation will drive prices up, thus changing the "value" of the money. The time value of money is the central concept in finance theory.

yes, column D for age 31 to 70 shows the value of insurance coverage in 2013 terms. My question is, what value does D[age=71] represents?

ok my mistake, cell d71 should be $60,971 and not $67,068

As stated in the title, you want to compare between the 2 plans. You are being unfair to the term plan by omitting some payment of the whole life plan in your calculation.

Please tell us how much self-created error you want in your calculation, and I will keep my comments to that.

as again, im using these 2 plans to compare a term plan and a tm lpdd because this is the only information i can get hold.

Where did you get 54000? Is it from your own personal policy? IIRC, this policy is for a female aged 31.

$54,000 is the acumulation of the premium paid for wl (summation of f3 to f26)

What is the benefits of Pruterm vantage that you saw? Death and TPD only? Does it include CI? I suggest you get your table correct first, before you draw anymore conclusion.


I see this thread more as a practice of applying time value of money. Perhaps it is more aptly titled as “A practice at time value of money”
Using inflation to approach the comparison, makes the comparison difficult, if not impossible…

well, i think you know the idea i am trying to bring across, would appreciate if i can see the exact calculation base on these 2 plans though

but thanks alot for the feedback, i have made changes to the excel to include one more payment for the wl + changing inflation rate (discount rate) to 3.09%

AJAdXis.png


and yes, you are right, to make it a fairer comparison, would appreciate an agent to provide me with the exact distribution table so that we can make a more fairer comparison
 
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Mecisteus

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and once again, i am not discussing about TM WL vs BTTITR (buy term, invest the rest), please do not mislead and divert my scope of discussion away in this thread to the scope of wl vs bttitr discussion too.

AXA is a term insurance and TM WL is a whole life. so how can you compare an apple with an orange?

to make the comparison fair, you need to discuss AXA term insurance as part of a BTITR method against a WL policy like TM WL. then you can see which is a better strategy considering factors like

1) expectation of investment returns
2) risk appetite of a policyholder
3) financial savviness of a policyholder
4) willingness to learn of a policyholder
 

Sinkie

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AXA is a term insurance and TM WL is a whole life. so how can you compare an apple with an orange?

to make the comparison fair, you need to discuss AXA term insurance as part of a BTITR method against a WL policy like TM WL. then you can see which is a better strategy considering factors like

1) expectation of investment returns
2) risk appetite of a policyholder
3) financial savviness of a policyholder
4) willingness to learn of a policyholder

and once again, i am stressing that i am not discussing AXA term insurance as part of a BTITR method against a WL policy like TM WL

i am comparing the effect of inflation erosion of money base on a 3.09% discount rate for a term plan and a WL policy in the long run and i am not comparing which is a better strategy.
 

Mecisteus

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Imo, surrender value of the wl in the later part will "deflate" if it's not invested in the long run so if comparing between a term plan and a wholelife, term plan is still better

and once again, i am stressing that i am not discussing AXA term insurance as part of a BTITR method against a WL policy like TM WL

i am comparing the effect of inflation erosion of money base on a 3.09% discount rate for a term plan and a WL policy in the long run and i am not comparing which is a better strategy.

seriously i think you are starting to confuse me and everyone here.
 

Sinkie

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seriously i think you are starting to confuse me and everyone here.

ohh, so that comment is the part you are confused with?

ok, noted, i will then made the necessary changes lor.
 
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DevilCurseYou

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As usual, I need more details, but base on my previous whoelife, the surrender value will usually be slightly more than $54,000, the total amount of premium paid. So even though you will still take back about $130,000 ($80,000+$54,000), the table will show the after inflation value of this $130,000 in that particular year
Total premium paid at 0% investment rate=/= surrender value.

well, i think you know the idea i am trying to bring across, would appreciate if i can see the exact calculation base on these 2 plans though
I think you are trying to compare the 2 plans, but your understanding in time value of money is weak. I foresee the comparison is going to be difficult if not impossible. I am just around to point out factual mistake.

changing inflation rate (discount rate) to 3.09%
Apparently, you still do not understand that discount rate =/=interest/investment/inflation rate. Read the first paragraph again. Otherwise, if you prefer wikipedia, under annual effective discount rate. You can still google for discount rate vs interest rate if the explanation is still not clear.

Please interpret the value for G[age=56] and H[age=100]. What does the value mean? Please specify the values are in which year currency.



I wonder what is the market rate for conducting tuition in finance...
 

Sinkie

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Total premium paid at 0% investment rate=/= surrender value.

like i say, surrender value will be slightly more than the total premium paid, i did not say it is exactly the same, and to make the calculation fairer, an agent would need to provide the benefit illustration too.

and so i used my old and previous benefit illustration as a guide, after like 40 years later, my surrender payment is actually slightly more than the total premium paid.

I think you are trying to compare the 2 plans, but your understanding in time value of money is weak. I foresee the comparison is going to be difficult if not impossible. I am just around to point out factual mistake.

i am not trying to compare the 2 plans, i am trying to show and compare the effect of time value of money with a term plan and a lpdd.

Apparently, you still do not understand that discount rate =/=interest/investment/inflation rate. Read the first paragraph again. Otherwise, if you prefer wikipedia, under annual effective discount rate. You can still google for discount rate vs interest rate if the explanation is still not clear.

Please interpret the value for G[age=56] and H[age=100]. What does the value mean? Please specify the values are in which year currency.



I wonder what is the market rate for conducting tuition in finance...

well, if you know the idea im trying to show, can i request you show your version of the table?
 
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Sinkie

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Total premium paid at 0% investment rate=/= surrender value.


I think you are trying to compare the 2 plans, but your understanding in time value of money is weak. I foresee the comparison is going to be difficult if not impossible. I am just around to point out factual mistake.


Apparently, you still do not understand that discount rate =/=interest/investment/inflation rate. Read the first paragraph again. Otherwise, if you prefer wikipedia, under annual effective discount rate. You can still google for discount rate vs interest rate if the explanation is still not clear.

Please interpret the value for G[age=56] and H[age=100]. What does the value mean? Please specify the values are in which year currency.



I wonder what is the market rate for conducting tuition in finance...

ok, since you are so good in finance, please give me some guidance (i dont have money to pay for tuition though)

in 2013, i have $80,000
in 2054, what will be my $80,000 worth?
 

Milo-Dino

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wah why this thread so confusing one...

can't understand what all three of you are fighting over...

in my own opinion, time value of money should be calculated based on inflation rate since that's the rate that affects the entire society as a whole.
 

Sinkie

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wah why this thread so confusing one...

can't understand what all three of you are fighting over...

in my own opinion, time value of money should be calculated based on inflation rate since that's the rate that affects the entire society as a whole.

this thread has evolved into an academic discussion on corporate finance and time value of money already lah liao la

hahaa, anyway i am giving up this thread already because it has lose its purpose liao.. im trying to show the effect of inflation eroding money (without taking into account of the needs for investment), but instead this thread relevance is judged because i did not follow the academic way of showing the effect of time value of money's future value base on investment rate or discount rate
 
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Carnesir

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Base on this example

Insurance%20comparison.png


i have tried to tabalute its time value of money using 3% inflation

51IfZ9G.png


please correct me if there is anything wrong, quite a few years didnt do any corporate finance liao :s22:

Imo, surrender value of the wl in the later part will "deflate"

But isn't a wl plan will stops premium payment once hit 65 but I will be assuming and base on the example given

based on your diagram, TMLPDD really for sore losers lol~~
 

DevilCurseYou

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MoneyTimeValue.png


All the values are in 2013 dollar(Net Present Value)
Inflation rate=Investment rate=3%(IMO, the investment rate is too low)
Discount rate=2.91%
'deflation factor'=0.97087

The first row shows the entries in each column are affected by inflation or investment rate. Inflation will affect insurance payout because when they pay out later, you can only buy less things.

However, for the rest, they are affected by investment rate and not inflation. For instance, if you keep next year premium of 1008 in a 0% interest bank account, you still need to pay 1008, not 978.64, in 2013 dollar. Insurer charge the same premium with or without inflation; your burden only becomes smaller if you invest your premium in the meantime.

like i say, surrender value will be slightly more than the total premium paid, i did not say it is exactly the same, and to make the calculation fairer, an agent would need to provide the benefit illustration too.

and so i used my old and previous benefit illustration as a guide, after like 40 years later, my surrender payment is actually slightly more than the total premium paid.
In general total premium paid at 0%=/=surrender value. The value you got is around there due to coincidence. Unless you want to come up with reason to explain, or the mathematical proof, your 'rule of thumb' is invalid.

iAdvisor has generated some of the surrender value for this plan. You can apply your 'rule of thumb' and see how bad it fails.
 
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