Your personal experience during financial crisis?

[limster]

My personal experience during the 2008-2009 crisis is

(1) that it shows that many people who frequent internet forums no action talk only. if you listen to them, you might not have profited from the cheap valuations/

(2) TA basically didn't work. (on hindsight some people still thick-skinned enough to say they use TA to call the bottom, but all hindsight only, during the crash, none called the bottom correctly and in fact many made wrong calls).

(3) Stick to FA, if company still earning money and fundamentals still ok, its a buy. FA doesn't pretend to be able to call the bottom, but confidence in FA will give you confidence that the valuations are cheap and hence a buy, whatever the market state

 

[havetheveryfun]

my plan is to react to crash-like signs

When there is high chance of upcoming crash, I will play it defensive and keep mostly cash

right now, i dont see crash in sight

why you don't see crash in sight ?

and what are crash-like signs?

 

[Perisher]

My personal experience during the 2008-2009 crisis is

(1) that it shows that many people who frequent internet forums no action talk only. if you listen to them, you might not have profited from the cheap valuations/

(2) TA basically didn't work. (on hindsight some people still thick-skinned enough to say they use TA to call the bottom, but all hindsight only, during the crash, none called the bottom correctly and in fact many made wrong calls).

(3) Stick to FA, if company still earning money and fundamentals still ok, its a buy. FA doesn't pretend to be able to call the bottom, but confidence in FA will give you confidence that the valuations are cheap and hence a buy, whatever the market state

Neat advise. When all hell breaks loose, please keep your head. Hope at that time, hwz ppl will be here to remind each other of that. Keep your cool, keep calm, and carry on.

But before that, tread lightly.

 

[OngHuatHuat]

I was in my final year when the 08-09 crisis strike, lost around 30 k in a week. Hand shake when I was washing test tube. And due to some emotional problem, I din dare to look at the stock screen for almost a year. Still remember that time vested in spc and some commodities counter. The next year, I was quite lucky because the oil price rebound strongly and spc get some privatization offer, eventually sold almost all my holdings with slight profit of few k.

Feel lucky coz I experience all this in my earlier year. I dunno what will be the situation like when the loss is 6 digits.

 

[Sinkie]

I was in my final year when the 08-09 crisis strike, lost around 30 k in a week. Hand shake when I was washing test tube. And due to some emotional problem, I din dare to look at the stock screen for almost a year. Still remember that time vested in spc and some commodities counter. The next year, I was quite lucky because the oil price rebound strongly and spc get some privatization offer, eventually sold almost all my holdings with slight profit of few k.

Feel lucky coz I experience all this in my earlier year. I dunno what will be the situation like when the loss is 6 digits.

Imagine If u were born 1 year later, you probably show hand in the market around 2009, when the market is at the bottom

Then you will feel superior thinking u got the Midas touch

Well, usually those who have being thru a financial crisis will have a tighter or heavy emphasis on risk management compared to those who didn't

 

[addict951]

I was in my final year when the 08-09 crisis strike, lost around 30 k in a week. Hand shake when I was washing test tube. And due to some emotional problem, I din dare to look at the stock screen for almost a year. Still remember that time vested in spc and some commodities counter. The next year, I was quite lucky because the oil price rebound strongly and spc get some privatization offer, eventually sold almost all my holdings with slight profit of few k.

Feel lucky coz I experience all this in my earlier year. I dunno what will be the situation like when the loss is 6 digits.

I remb. I lost 15K in a week.
AIG, Ford motor kongsi and some sg counters.
Wah, ish feel bery hopeless. Every day wake up is wanna cry ****. WHY GAMBLE WHY GAMBLE

Then I unwittingly became a long-term investor in reits...

 

[cybercom8]

best time to buy brand new cars and properties

 

[mikezuper]

Good thread, bookmarked!

Will share mine next

 

[econbizer]

I got lucky & bought 5 diversified stocks using relative valuation to pick them. This was in 2009. Took profit once I achieved 20%, but not before I almost cut losses for 2 stocks at -20%. Fortunately, as I pondered this over a night, the economy u-turned upwards.

On hindsight, I would say it was small skill+ mostly blind luck. I beat the STI only slighty. It is not tough to beat the index slightly, by using RV to select stocks, but it is tough to time the market cycle. I can still beat the STI using RV in a down economy, but at a loss.. eg. my portfolio -1%, STI -1.1%.

Lessons:
- check stock PE before buying
- do not catch a falling knife, buy only when the downtrend is broken
- diversify
- set cut loss limit & stick to them
(2 stocks I cut, never recovered with the rebound)
- set sensible risk reward
(Eg make 20% take profit, cut loss max -20% gives u a 1:1 risk-reward. It cannot go any worse.. if u cannot set a sensible R:R, u will have no discipline to increase your assets buying stocks. U will become an uncle/auntie "long-term investor")
___________________
As a rough gauge to overbought, oversold sentiment, check the stock PE before buying it.

If you dunno what to buy, buy what you see.. hp bill keep increasing.. TL.. check telco stocks PE. Hospital bill increasing.. TL.. check hospital stocks PE. PE near average, buy.

What is PE?
For each dollar the coy makes, how much investors are willing to pay for the stock. A high PE-compared to average 5-yr PE implies either high investor confidence in future earnings OR more likely, the stock is getting overbought.

Sometimes, we may observe the stock price running up, driving up the PE. This is most likely due to insider trading (people in the know accumulating stocks). Once the coy's next earnings are reported to be indeed better, PE will lower to realistic levels. When earnings are reported to be worst than expected, that's when the stock price drops.. lowering the PE to realistic levels.

PE = Price/Earnings, when earnings (as the base) increase = PE lowers

 

[havetheveryfun]

I remb. I lost 15K in a week.
AIG, Ford motor kongsi and some sg counters.
Wah, ish feel bery hopeless. Every day wake up is wanna cry ****. WHY GAMBLE WHY GAMBLE

Then I unwittingly became a long-term investor in reits...

but reits would still be affected in a crisis ?

 

[simon_84]

but reits would still be affected in a crisis ?

everything will be affected.
no single equity counter is spared.

 

[Opps-gal]

At least reits pay dividend while waiting for prices to bounce back?

I think is better to stay invested in reits or stocks got give dividend (get reits/stocks from different sectors) , while waiting for the recession to visit? Collect dividend (preparing for the visit of recession) and keep in bank until next recession/crisis which nobody when will it be? What if don't arrive for years? Just my 30 cents thought.

 

[felixleong]

Ya, dividend stocks quite important when during recession... They drop less and also they still provide the steady stream of income

 

[spiritGate]

At least reits pay dividend while waiting for prices to bounce back?

I think is better to stay invested in reits or stocks got give dividend (get reits/stocks from different sectors) , while waiting for the recession to visit? Collect dividend (preparing for the visit of recession) and keep in bank until next recession/crisis which nobody when will it be? What if don't arrive for years? Just my 30 cents thought.

But there will be an increase in interest rate which will affect the share price and the dividend of the REITs shares right? Cause experience people here suggest not to buy reits due to this reason. This also deters me to purchase reits despite of its high dividend which is good for me as a long term investors

 

[spiritGate]

Ya, dividend stocks quite important when during recession... They drop less and also they still provide the steady stream of income

dividend stock refers to blue chips? or any specific industry that you are talking about?

 

[Asphodeli]

dividend stock refers to blue chips? or any specific industry that you are talking about?

dividend stock = any stock that give dividends. stable stocks like blue chips tend to give dividends but the yield may not be as high as REITs or mid/small cap companies.

 

[felixleong]

Sorry i meant defensive dividend stocks like telcos singtel m1 starhub, during bear they drop less than the index (low beta) example if market drop 20% the telcos drop 10% instead
Cheers

 

[spiritGate]

Sorry i meant defensive dividend stocks like telcos singtel m1 starhub, during bear they drop less than the index (low beta) example if market drop 20% the telcos drop 10% instead
Cheers

yea, i waiting for telco share price to drop before buying lol.... drop more drop more

 

[Dyhalt]

REITs rely heavily on debt for financing of its operations and are forced to payout 90% its earnings. In short they are bad defensive stocks during crisis.

Good REITs will have its dividend cut because of unfavorable financing loans in crisis, bad REITs might default or liquidate at bad price to service its debt.... so pick your choice carefully.

Saizen was one such example where its unit price vaporized by over 80% because it was unable to service its debt and defaulted, forcing to liquidate to pay back its loans back in 2009.... till today this counter is still unloved by investors because of its past mistake.

 

[spiritGate]

REITs rely heavily on debt for financing of its operations and are forced to payout 90% its earnings. In short they are bad defensive stocks during crisis.

Good REITs will have its dividend cut because of unfavorable financing loans in crisis, bad REITs might default or liquidate at bad price to service its debt.... so pick your choice carefully.

Saizen was one such example where its unit price vaporized by over 80% because it was unable to service its debt and defaulted, forcing to liquidate to pay back its loans back in 2009.... till today this counter is still unloved by investors because of its past mistake.

decided to go for SoilbuildBizReit seeing it's portfolio with many biz property. Just give it a go, see whether it will build up its reputation in a few years time