*Official* Shiny Things club

[Shiny Things]

hi Ms Shiny,

In this guy's defence, he is not the first person to call me "Ms". Stanchart called me "Ms" when I called them up to cancel my credit card.

what's your view on the following,

1. employment data isn't strong, neither is the US economy doing well,

Huh? US employment data is pretty good - payrolls are running north of +200k a month - and the economy's doing OK. It's not growing strongly everywhere, but it's going absolute gangbusters here in the Bay Area.

though the stocks index are at it's all time high, from the cheap costs of borrowing money for businesses.

The other reason stock indexes are at all-time highs is that earnings are at all-time highs as well. Like I said, the economy is recovering - slowly but surely.

2. I am surprised that FEDs are going to increase the interest rates... this year... as USD has been strengthening rapidly... these recent couple of months.

You've got cause and effect confused there. The USD is strengthening because the Fed is probably going to raise rates - not the other way around.

The Fed doesn't really take the USD's strength or weakness as an input into their rate hike decisions: they target inflation and unemployment, not the level of the dollar. Unemployment is heading lower; inflation is slowly (slowly) heading higher; and they'd like to raise rates somewhat in advance so they don't have to do it all in a rush when inflation does start moving higher.

So they're probably going to move in September, and America will probably be fine.

Money where my mouth is on this, I'm short a decent chunk of eurodollar delta, mostly via options but little bits of outright futures as well; I think the first move will happen in September this year and the eurodollar curve is significantly underpricing how many hikes there'll be between now and 2017-2018.

For example: last week when the rates market had a bit of a panic, GEZ8s were trading just a shade below 97.75 - that's pricing something like eight hikes in the next three-and-a-half years. That seems incredibly pessimistic. If you're buying those here (buying GEs means you think rates will go down) you really don't have a lot of upside: anything less than one hike every six months and you're going to be losing a lot of money.

What's your take on it, please ?

My take is that you've been reading too much Zero Hedge. The American economy is recovering; it's the right time for the Fed to hike.

So I FXCONV some USD.SGD to buy ETFs in USD.
Am seeing USD Cash in my portfolio window... when I try to trade.

Do I wait, or did I forget something?

Give it a couple of days to settle, as mentioned below (I think), but also make sure you're leaving enough in your account to pay commissions and fees (leave $50 or $100 in there over and above the cost of the shares you're trying to buy; that'll be enough to cover your monthly fees for a few months as well as the minimal commissions).

 

[newjersey]

hi Shiny,

thanks for your insight...

I used Ms... as that's what they do for girls where they are unsure about their marital status.

I hope it's not offensive to u... I assume you are a girl / female / woman, but if I am wrong, please correct me... so that I would amend.

 

[Shiny Things]

I used Ms... as that's what they do for girls where they are unsure about their marital status.

I hope it's not offensive to u... I assume you are a girl / female / woman, but if I am wrong, please correct me... so that I would amend.

So I could probably do an "I'm not a girl / Not yet a woman" joke here, but I haven't had my first cup of coffee yet so I can't think of a good punchline. Anyway: sorry dude, I'm a guy.

 

[newjersey]

hi Mr Shiny...

sorry... my bad !

 

[newjersey]

hi Shiny,

do you think MAS would step in and strengthen SGD to USD so that inflation would be controlled, though that would hurt our exports, your thoughts please?

TQ in advance.

 

[Shiny Things]

do you think MAS would step in and strengthen SGD to USD so that inflation would be controlled, though that would hurt our exports, your thoughts please?

OK, everyone, say it with me:

Singaporean inflation is negative right now!

That's not a typo. Inflation over the last 12 months is running at something like -0.5%; even if you strip out housing it's only something like +0.5%, which is pretty anemic. So, no, the MAS will probably not strengthen the SGD. If anything I think they'd probably prefer to see it a bit weaker, especially if US rates are going to start ticking higher.

Do yourself a favour, everyone. If you're going to have an opinion about anything to do with inflation, you should at least know what the current inflation rate is.

 

[newjersey]

hi Shiny...

thanks, sorry that I got my facts all wrong.

 

[John.D Rockefeller]

hey Shiny, any recommended ETF's in SGX for Africa perhaps..?

 

[reinphd]

Your rationale for getting African's stocks would be interesting to be heard

Sent from Samsung SM-G900F using GAGT

 

[ussr_1991]

According to an article online:

http://mothership.sg/2015/08/everything-you-need-to-know-about-pm-lees-national-day-message-2015-in-60-seconds/

This is the first time PM Lee did not mention the economy’s forecast growth figures for the National Day Message.

So I am curious, if this is to be seen as indication that Singapore is technically heading towards recession, is this the reason why ES3's price has been dropping?

 

[Bedokian]

According to an article online:

http://mothership.sg/2015/08/everything-you-need-to-know-about-pm-lees-national-day-message-2015-in-60-seconds/

This is the first time PM Lee did not mention the economy’s forecast growth figures for the National Day Message.

So I am curious, if this is to be seen as indication that Singapore is technically heading towards recession, is this the reason why ES3's price has been dropping?

Erm, I think the 3 points that you mentioned are not really related to one another.

The economy does not control the contents of a speech. And the exclusion of growth figures in a speech does not point out to a recession. And lastly, ES3 tracks the STI. With STI dropping, ES3 follows suit.

 

[Chronology]

Hi guys,

I'm interested in purchasing VWRD through iOCBC online. However, it's my first time doing so. May I ask what price I should enter because the quotes have a 15 min delay? Or should I just enter the Ask price to purchase it?

I would greatly appreciate your help.

Thank you!

 

[Bedokian]

Hi guys,

I'm interested in purchasing VWRD through iOCBC online. However, it's my first time doing so. May I ask what price I should enter because the quotes have a 15 min delay? Or should I just enter the Ask price to purchase it?

I would greatly appreciate your help.

Thank you!

You could use Google or Yahoo Finance pages, or Bloomberg to track the real time prices.

On further thought, have you considered using SCB instead? I understand some brokerages charge custodian fees for foreign shares if you do not trade with them x times within y months. Maybe you could check on this with iOCBC.

 

[Chronology]

You could use Google or Yahoo Finance pages, or Bloomberg to track the real time prices.

On further thought, have you considered using SCB instead? I understand some brokerages charge custodian fees for foreign shares if you do not trade with them x times within y months. Maybe you could check on this with iOCBC.

Thanks for your help!

Yes, I have indeed considered SCB. However, I feel more assured having the shares in my CDP, given that I'm a first timer in investing. I'll definitely consider it in the future though.

 

[Bedokian]

Thanks for your help!

Yes, I have indeed considered SCB. However, I feel more assured having the shares in my CDP, given that I'm a first timer in investing. I'll definitely consider it in the future though.

Do note that for foreign shares such as VWRD, it is custodian as well (under iOCBC). CDP is only applicable for locally listed shares.

 

[limster]

Thanks for your help!

Yes, I have indeed considered SCB. However, I feel more assured having the shares in my CDP, given that I'm a first timer in investing. I'll definitely consider it in the future though.

If you buy VWRD through iOCBC do you know
(1) What the commission is compared to SCB
(2) Who the custodian is, since you only feel safe if it is CDP?

 

[Chronology]

Do note that for foreign shares such as VWRD, it is custodian as well (under iOCBC). CDP is only applicable for locally listed shares.

If you buy VWRD through iOCBC do you know
(1) What the commission is compared to SCB
(2) Who the custodian is, since you only feel safe if it is CDP?

Thanks Bedokian! I didn't know about that before hand.

@limster, I've checked ocbc has higher commission charges as compared to SCB.. Guess that's the way to go for buying overseas securities. Thanks for your help as well!

 

[Asphodeli]

Just wanted to post that I read through the entire thread up to page 127. A good read even with my 10 years semi-active investing in the SGX.

Sent from Sony D5833 using GAGT

 

[Perisher]

Just wanted to post that I read through the entire thread up to page 127. A good read even with my 10 years semi-active investing in the SGX.

Sent from Sony D5833 using GAGT

You win liao. Achievement unlocked. Go ask Shiny Things for a free drink when you go Cali. =P

Seriously though, would highly recommend anyone who wish to upgrade their financial knowledge from zero to adequate to do this thing. Sure beats paying a few ks to go attend seminars which might end up learning nothing.

 

[Shiny Things]

I'm interested in purchasing VWRD through iOCBC online. However, it's my first time doing so. May I ask what price I should enter because the quotes have a 15 min delay? Or should I just enter the Ask price to purchase it?

Whoops, looks like everyone beat me to it. Anyway, yes: don't use iOCBC, they charge way too much; do use Stanchart; get your market data from Google Finance, which has a realtime feed; just enter like 10 cents above the last traded price and you should get done; and yes, CDP only works for local shares, not overseas.

This is the first time PM Lee did not mention the economy’s forecast growth figures for the National Day Message.

So I am curious, if this is to be seen as indication that Singapore is technically heading towards recession, is this the reason why ES3's price has been dropping?

Sort of, but you're making a few logical leaps here.

Singapore's not remotely close to recession. The year-on-year GDP growth rate ran at 1.7% in the second quarter; that's a long way down from 2.8% in the first quarter, but it's still pretty respectable.

I'm guessing the reason there wasn't any chat about the national growth figures is that they're not particularly strong, but c'mon, the National Day message is supposed to be a rousing publicity exercise, it's not supposed to be a policy statement. Don't read too much into it.

ES3's price could have dropped for any one of a bunch of reasons, but I'd reckon it's just because anything that looks remotely like an emerging market has been getting sold off lately.

hey Shiny, any recommended ETF's in SGX for Africa perhaps..?

Nope. There are no good Africa ETFs anywhere in the world.

There are a couple of options, all listed on the NYSE, and all of them are bad:

• AFK, the Market Vectors Africa ETF: charges an extortionate 0.8% management fee; it's tiny (about $80 million of AUM, which is barely enough to keep the lights on); and something like a quarter of the fund is not in African stocks, it's in "stocks with some sort of link to Africa". Don't bother with this one.
• FM, the iShares Frontier Market ETF: this one is big and reasonably liquid, but the fees are high (again, 0.8%, which to be fair is the going rate for frontier-markets stuff), and again it's not just Africa: the top 5 countries are Kuwait, Nigeria, Argentina, Pakistan and Kenya. Probably not what you want.
• The single-country African ETFs, EZA (South Africa), EGPT (Egypt), and NGE (Nigeria): no. Just no. EZA is maybe investable ($400mio-ish assets, 0.6% expense ratio), but you don't want to put all your money into South Africa (that's basically taking a huge punt on the ZAR); and the rest are absolutely tiny and charge fees through the roof.

So unfortunately, what you want doesn't really exist.