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Perisher

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Yeah, slackerz nailed it: past performance is not indicative of future performance. Small caps and US stocks have had a phenomenal run over the last few years, but they tend to underperform badly in market downturns.

Chasing performance - buying small-cap stocks because "they've done so well in the last five years!" is the absolute worst thing you can do, because you'll tend to buy whatever stocks are the most expensive and you'll incinerate your money.

Actually, I'm in the same camp as you guys but I would say a near 15 year history has made it less of an oddity(trendy,hot,buy of the year etc...) and more deserving of a second look.

From the looks of the GFC period, it didn't perform any worst(dropped near 50%) than S&P, Nasdaq or DJIA. This was a suprise.
Also, as it's an ETF, it's not as dangerous(vs individual stock) and the up side is tremendous(vs S&P,DJIA) comparatively over that 15 year period.

Here's an article that talks about 20years of small cap vs S&P.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2738615-5-simple-ways-to-beat-the-market-part-1-of-5

It looks good to me.
 
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Shiny Things

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Actually, I'm in the same camp as you guys but I would say a near 15 year history has made it less of an oddity(trendy,hot,buy of the year etc...) and more deserving of a second look.

From the looks of the GFC period, it didn't perform any worst(dropped near 50%) than S&P, Nasdaq or DJIA. This was a suprise.
Also, as it's an ETF, it's not as dangerous(vs individual stock) and the up side is tremendous(vs S&P,DJIA) comparatively over that 15 year period.

Here's an article that talks about 20years of small cap vs S&P.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2738615-5-simple-ways-to-beat-the-market-part-1-of-5

It looks good to me.

Yeah, this is a fair point! The small-cap effect, the value effect (and by extension the smallcap-value effect) is an actual thing. It exists. Over the very long term, small-cap stocks and value stocks tend to outperform larger-cap and growth stocks; the value tilt is how Wozza made Berky into the all-consuming monster of Americana it is today.

The reason I don't bang on about it too much is for the same reason I tend to handwave away emerging markets and high-yield bonds, even though they're good things to own - it makes the portfolio more complex than a simple three-fund portfolio of ES3, A35, and IWDA. Telling people "you need to buy these six or seven stocks in these proportions and then you need to scale them down like this and this and this" is just going to scare new investors away.

That said, once you've got comfortable with your three-fund portfolio (and I mean a couple of years, not "oh I've made my first investment, I know what I'm doing"), there's nothing wrong with adding a 3-5% allocation to:

  • Emerging markets;
  • High-yield bonds;
  • Global small-cap stocks (not just the USA).

I do this. I've got small allocations to all of the above - 5%, 3%, and 5% respectively.

Here's the thing, though: emergings and high-yield bonds have been disaster areas this year. I'd have made more money if I kept my cash in US stocks. That won't always be the case, though (for example, EM stocks absolutely flattened US stocks from 2000 to 2009); and the point of being invested during the bad times is so that you can participate in the rally when the good times come.

Take those allocations out of your equity allocation, though: these are all things that are riskier than stocks. If you're reducing your bond allocation to buy EM stocks, or high-yield bonds, or small-cap stocks, you're doing it wrong.

Important: For those who wish to open a SCB brokerage account, passing the Customer Account Review (CAR) is a must. For other banks, failing the CAR simply means you cannot trade SIPs. For SCB, you cant even proceed with account opening. Not sure why SCB is so stringent though.

Frankly I think it's because they don't want to put the effort in. It wouldn't be that hard to add a "SIP"/"EIP" flag to all the products loaded in the system, and prevent non-CAR customers from placing orders in SIPs.

Also on this note: if you tell Stanchart that you've made six trades in Specified Investment Products, so therefore you can open an account, they don't check. I'm just sayin'.

HI Shiny,

Could you kindly elaborate on below? Is it difficult because administratively cumbersome or legislation makes foreign investors jump through hoops etc.?

Because you can only really buy them from American brokers; and because you get the very unfavourable tax treatment on the dividends.

Shiny Things - Perhaps my phrasing was inappropriate. What I actually meant was that the general trend of those stocks follow the same peaks and troughs of ES3 for most part, albeit with more volatility, instead of splitting away like

Yeah, I'll give you that. I still think these don't track the STI particularly well (with the exception of one of the REITs, which was generally in the same direction, but there's no guarantee that those relationships will hold in the future). If you want a thing that tracks the STI, but an STI ETF.
 
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nicholasmong

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Global Bonds?

Shiny, applying the 120 rule - ES3+A35 in SGD.

Would you recommend doing likewise for a foreign portfolio on top of IWDA/EIMI? iShares has SLXX in GBP; I'd like to keep to USD if possible.
 

Shiny Things

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Shiny, applying the 120 rule - ES3+A35 in SGD.

Would you recommend doing likewise for a foreign portfolio on top of IWDA/EIMI? iShares has SLXX in GBP; I'd like to keep to USD if possible.

110, not 120. And I wouldn't recommend having an overseas bond component, no; overseas bonds are effectively a straight-up bet on the currency, because they don't have any real scope for capital gain. Stick to A35 for your bond component.

The only time I'd recommend an overseas bond holding is if you specifically wanted exposure to high-yield bonds (because the high-yield sector in Singapore is infested with awful names that I wouldn't want to own).
 

limster

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Shiny, applying the 120 rule - ES3+A35 in SGD.

Would you recommend doing likewise for a foreign portfolio on top of IWDA/EIMI? iShares has SLXX in GBP; I'd like to keep to USD if possible.

I think Shiny already told you that ETFs are not Pokemon =:p So he will never advise to collect more stuff.

On the other hand, I find the variety of ETFs available interesting haha. Let me introduce you to an alternative to SLXX if you think rates are going to rise: SUKC. If you ask Shiny what are his views on SUKC, I think I know the answer already...

I suppose if you are planning to do further studies in US/UK and want exposure to US/GBP, you might want to hold US$/GBP bond ETFs, but that is unique to you, and not part of Shiny's model portfolio.
 

Shiny Things

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I think Shiny already told you that ETFs are not Pokemon =:p So he will never advise to collect more stuff.

On the other hand, I find the variety of ETFs available interesting haha. Let me introduce you to an alternative to SLXX if you think rates are going to rise: SUKC. If you ask Shiny what are his views on SUKC, I think I know the answer already...

I suppose if you are planning to do further studies in US/UK and want exposure to US/GBP, you might want to hold US$/GBP bond ETFs, but that is unique to you, and not part of Shiny's model portfolio.

I mean, my view on SUKC is coloured by the fact that it's a UK bond ETF, and you (as as non-UK investor) have no particular need to be specifically holding UK bonds (unless you're studying in the UK or something and you want a place to park your cash for a couple years, in which case what I'm about to say doesn't hold).

Holding a short-dated bond ETF is a very sensible thing to do if you think rates are going to go up. But when people say "rates are going to go up", they're generally talking about the Fed, not the BoE. You've got the wrong currency's bonds there.

And because UK rates are so low, SUKC pretty much reduces to an outright bet on GBPSGD.

Look, you're absolutely right: if you needed to hold GBP, and you thought the BoE was going to hike rates, then this would be a sensible thing to hold. But that's not going to happen any time soon, and (unless you have some special circumstances) you don't need to own this one.
 
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orangbulu

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Shiny, I am currently working in China, and being paid in RMB for my salary, and am still contributing to my CPF. I am aiming to buy a property somewhere between mid 2016 - early 2017.

I intend to transfer back my RMB to Singapore on a regular basis, by moving as much physical cash as possible within the regulatory limits to reduce the transaction costs. I am unsure whether to keep it in RMB or SGD . Obviously the RMB FD would have higher interest rates, but i am concerned on the forex volatility, especially due to recent events. What would be your advise in my case? Thanks
 

newjersey

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hmm, RMB would have to appreciate again over time.

and the FD rates in CN are crazy, 3.5% p.a.

:)

Ok, make way for Guru Shiny Things to answer...

haha
 

dessq123

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Hey ST, thanks for all the info. I'm at my last component of the three fund portfolio and about to invest in VWRD or IWDA. I know, I know we all can't tell what would the exchange rate for USD-SGD in the future, but with 20K SGD, would 1) buy it now, 2) average it for a few month, e.g. buy in small portions over a few months or 3) which I'm hoping, hoping for SGD-USD goes to a more "reasonable" rate e.g. 1.35 maybe... thoughts?
 

reinphd

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Hey ST, thanks for all the info. I'm at my last component of the three fund portfolio and about to invest in VWRD or IWDA. I know, I know we all can't tell what would the exchange rate for USD-SGD in the future, but with 20K SGD, would 1) buy it now, 2) average it for a few month, e.g. buy in small portions over a few months or 3) which I'm hoping, hoping for SGD-USD goes to a more "reasonable" rate e.g. 1.35 maybe... thoughts?

1) if you aren't afraid of buyer's remorse
2) is a good method so you can sleep peacefully at night to know that you might be exchanging at highs and lows
3) if you keep hoping you will just miss the boat ride. unless someone here can predict whether it will go lower.

just my humble thoughts
 

nicholasmong

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no; overseas bonds are effectively a straight-up bet on the currency, because they don't have any real scope for capital gain. Stick to A35 for your bond component..

On the other hand, I find the variety of ETFs available interesting haha. Let me introduce you to an alternative to SLXX if you think rates are going to rise: SUKC.
Thanks Shiny & limster for your input. Was just wondering if I need to doing likewise for foreign vs. ES3/A35. If it ends up being betting against currencies, I'm prolly better of do FX trades. 30pips on $10,000 is like $300 profit (not bad for a day's pay). No need to jump through loops and hoops. Not that I intend to do that.
 

nicholasmong

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Hey ST, thanks for all the info. I'm at my last component of the three fund portfolio and about to invest in VWRD or IWDA. I know, I know we all can't tell what would the exchange rate for USD-SGD in the future, but with 20K SGD, would 1) buy it now, 2) average it for a few month, e.g. buy in small portions over a few months or 3) which I'm hoping, hoping for SGD-USD goes to a more "reasonable" rate e.g. 1.35 maybe... thoughts?
There was a slight dip on 10/Aug (1.379) prolly due to the devaluation of RMB. Else, been going up for past month - see candlesticks. Not sure if/when we will see 1.35 again; could be 18mths from now - who knows.
 

allan_nalla

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Not quite. There are some other differences between Fed Funds and LIBOR (I'm going to use USD LIBOR as my example here).

A side-effect of this is that the LIBOR term lending markets have basically evaporated since 2008. Before then, everyone thought "oh sure, I can lend 3-month unsecured cash to Megabank London, no worries". After Lehman, everyone thinks "oh man, what if Megabank isn't there in three months' time to give me my money back?! I want some collateral in case they blow up!" - so banks now prefer to lend in secured markets like the repo market. Interbank unsecured lending volumes - the market that LIBOR is based on - have dropped by nearly 90% since 2008.

Thanks for your detailed explanation! Cleared up so much confusion that I had about the different rates.

Having said that though, I have just one doubt left, that seemed really fundamental and I just need a check mark-type confirmation.

Am I right to say that all Interest rates are primarily determined by trading activities (i.e. Demand and Supply), even in the FFMarket? This explains why the Fed sets the FFTR as a range (0 - 0.25), instead of an exact figure (0.25) since it can only attempt to control the rate through OMO, but not exactly dictate the exact desired rate.

Cheers.
 
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hhhnnn

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I'm gonna point you toward this tool, which does pretty much the same thing you built and ges back to the early 1970s. It doesn't specifically include Singapore stocks, but the results will be pretty suggestive of what you should expect.

ST, thanks for the reply. I've tried this visualizer since you posted before. But this visualizer lacks STI tracking and the contribution is annual, so the return will be a bit off I think. Hence, I like to use excel to customize to Singapore version with monthly contribution. I least I know the draft return now :D

Besides, I had an etrade brokerage account with some USD there since my US company allow us to buy shares at discount. I find that it's quite hard to transfer or withdraw money with etrade. I need to fill form and scan to them for any withdrawal. So, I hesitate to use USD to start my IWDA portion due to difficulties in future transfer or withdrawal.
Does anyone have any advice how should I transfer it back at min cost to facilitate the buying of IWDA in Singapore? I currently have SCB trading account with SGD and USD securities. I don't know if I could transfer directly from etrade to SCB USD-based securities account? If there are other efficiently ways, please share.

Thank you.
 
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Thanks Shiny & limster for your input. Was just wondering if I need to doing likewise for foreign vs. ES3/A35. If it ends up being betting against currencies, I'm prolly better of do FX trades. 30pips on $10,000 is like $300 profit (not bad for a day's pay). No need to jump through loops and hoops. Not that I intend to do that.

You could have your bonds in foreign currency, not that i am recommending it, but you could have such bonds in your portfolio base on the argument of currency diversification.

There is a also a case of diversification for high yields (junk). those bonds are denominated in USD(which are alot less volatility vs emerging market currencies. And to make things more juicy, the DTA for UK and US on interest effectively reduces it to zero withholding tax. In addition, the huge portion of the bonds in that Ishare high yield corp bond fund holds BB credit rating bonds. i read from somewhere that this area happens to be in the sweet spot for high yield because most aggregated bonds / investment grade bond fund have a floor limit to the type of bonds they hold, which is BBB bonds. The moment they hit BB, those funds gotta sell it. So when that happens, it will fall into high yield's category and the high yield funds will pick up an undervalued bond.

It just occur to my mind recently now with a Singapore Saving Bond(SSB), it might make a good combination with High yields or maybe even A35 as you will find at times, the high yields will have a huge fluctuation so if you have an SSB which is capital protected, you will find yourself selling SSB and buying High Yields when high yields underperform, vice versa. This is something which i am trying to work out to confirm there is a diversification benefit but i am having some hard time trying to understand the technical part of SSB. In any case if it really works out, the fx spread on SCB might have eliminated the benefits so it might only works for those using IB. I am thinking of a ratio of A35:SSB:High yield - 60:20:20 (which is the same for a US bogleheads suggestion of Total bond market:TIPS:High Yield)
 

Shiny Things

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In addition, the huge portion of the bonds in that Ishare high yield corp bond fund holds BB credit rating bonds. i read from somewhere that this area happens to be in the sweet spot for high yield because most aggregated bonds / investment grade bond fund have a floor limit to the type of bonds they hold, which is BBB bonds. The moment they hit BB, those funds gotta sell it. So when that happens, it will fall into high yield's category and the high yield funds will pick up an undervalued bond.

Yeah, this appears to be a thing. BB-ish bonds tend to do quite well relative to the amount of risk you take.

It just occur to my mind recently now with a Singapore Saving Bond(SSB), it might make a good combination with High yields or maybe even A35 as you will find at times,

I dunno - I think when we went through this, the consensus was that A35 was explicitly better than the SSB; A35 delivers more yield for a similar duration, so unless you really need the principal protection in the SSB I'd tend to recommend outright A35.

I am thinking of a ratio of A35:SSB:High yield - 60:20:20 (which is the same for a US bogleheads suggestion of Total bond market:TIPS:High Yield)

Mmm - that means you're going to have an awfully small slice of HY until you turn 35 or so, though. I'd say an outright "5% of your portfolio" is the best bet, but I think we're just quibbling here - the underlying idea, that it's worth adding some high-yield bonds to your portfolio once you're comfortable with the basic 3-fund portfolio, is something that's absolutely right.

Am I right to say that all Interest rates are primarily determined by trading activities (i.e. Demand and Supply), even in the FFMarket? This explains why the Fed sets the FFTR as a range (0 - 0.25), instead of an exact figure (0.25) since it can only attempt to control the rate through OMO, but not exactly dictate the exact desired rate.

Nope. Before the days of ZIRP, the Fed would set a target figure, not a target range, and they'd usually hit it give or take a bp or two.

I think the reason it's now "0 to 0.25" is that they didn't want to set the target to zero and risk having rates go negative - when they set that target, it was 2008, and negative rates were confusing and scary and nobody knew what would happen. Nowadays negative interest rates are totally a thing - the SNB's rate target at the moment is something like -0.75% if memory serves - so if they had to do it over they might set the target at zero.

Thanks Shiny & limster for your input. Was just wondering if I need to doing likewise for foreign vs. ES3/A35. If it ends up being betting against currencies, I'm prolly better of do FX trades. 30pips on $10,000 is like $300 profit (not bad for a day's pay). No need to jump through loops and hoops. Not that I intend to do that.

Uh, 30 pips on $10k is $30. And yep, if you want to bet on currencies, trade FX directly. (But also: never trade FX.)

Hey ST, thanks for all the info. I'm at my last component of the three fund portfolio and about to invest in VWRD or IWDA. I know, I know we all can't tell what would the exchange rate for USD-SGD in the future, but with 20K SGD, would 1) buy it now, 2) average it for a few month, e.g. buy in small portions over a few months or 3) which I'm hoping, hoping for SGD-USD goes to a more "reasonable" rate e.g. 1.35 maybe... thoughts?

Don't bet on 3) happening - it might, but if it does it'll only be because you got lucky.

I'm going to give my usual answer - I'd chuck it in all at once, but it's totally OK to split it into three or four portions and average in over a few months. Make sure you do average in, though - don't skip a month just because you don't like what the price is doing.

I intend to transfer back my RMB to Singapore on a regular basis, by moving as much physical cash as possible within the regulatory limits to reduce the transaction costs. I am unsure whether to keep it in RMB or SGD . Obviously the RMB FD would have higher interest rates, but i am concerned on the forex volatility, especially due to recent events. What would be your advise in my case? Thanks

If you're saving up SGD to buy a house, I'd keep the cash in SGD, not least because of what you mentioned - the PBOC's sort of opened themselves up to speculators betting that the CNY's going to head even lower - but also because, I mean, you need SGD, so SGD is what you should keep around.
 

allan_nalla

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Sorry, quick question that occurred while I'm trying to build my own excel portfolio tracker.

How do you guys consolidate the constituents of your portfolio in your summary? In terms of Option 1, 2 or 3?

1) Asset Class (i.e. Bonds: 40%, Stocks: 52%, Cash: 8%)
2) Currency (i.e. USDSecurities: 30%, SGDSecurities: 70%)
3) Both (i.e. 1 Pie Chart for Asset Class, 1 for Currency)

Edit: Thanks highsulphur for the mention


Nope. Before the days of ZIRP, the Fed would set a target figure, not a target range, and they'd usually hit it give or take a bp or two.

I think the reason it's now "0 to 0.25" is that they didn't want to set the target to zero and risk having rates go negative - when they set that target, it was 2008, and negative rates were confusing and scary and nobody knew what would happen. Nowadays negative interest rates are totally a thing - the SNB's rate target at the moment is something like -0.75% if memory serves - so if they had to do it over they might set the target at zero.

Ah. I see. Thanks a lot!
 
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highsulphur

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Sorry, quick question that occurred while I'm trying to build my own excel portfolio tracker.

How do you guys consolidate the constituents of your portfolio in your summary? In terms of Option 1, 2 or 3?

1) Asset Class (i.e. Bonds: 40%, Stocks: 42%, Cash: 8%, ETFs: 10%)
2) Currency (i.e. USDSecurities: 30%, SGDSecurities: 70%)
3) Both (i.e. 1 Pie Chart for Asset Class, 1 for Currency)



Ah. I see. Thanks a lot!

Etf is not an asset class. It's an instrument for you to invest into one or more asset classes.
 

Shiny Things

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Sorry, quick question that occurred while I'm trying to build my own excel portfolio tracker.

How do you guys consolidate the constituents of your portfolio in your summary? In terms of Option 1, 2 or 3?

1) Asset Class (i.e. Bonds: 40%, Stocks: 52%, Cash: 8%)
2) Currency (i.e. USDSecurities: 30%, SGDSecurities: 70%)
3) Both (i.e. 1 Pie Chart for Asset Class, 1 for Currency)

Mine's sort of like #1. I've got a line for equities, broken down into US, DM-ex-US, and EM; and a line for bonds, broken down into short-term investment-grade, long-term investment-grade, and junk.
 
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