2020 market expectations and positioning

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Majestic12

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DukeCS33 said:
I see... The catch maybe that the loan is in jpy or chf. You will have currency exposure and you risk losing more via fx then the interest rate saving.

My RM has given up selling me anything as I would dissect the structure and replicate it cheaper.

In any case, I share your concerns about China. But it is now a background concern in so far as we have ample official support and flush liquidity. I did take a short in SP and STI futures but covered them when price action appears to turn. Now I will trade very short term.
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The costs of these fancy structures is enough to cause you to fall off the chair. :s13:
 
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DukeCS33

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Majestic12 said:
The costs of these fancy structures is enough to cause you to fall off the chair. :s13:
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I know. There was a time when I structure such solutions for end clients ranging from Private banks, institutional fund managers and retail investors.
 
Mecisteus

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netzach said:
Wah... no see deep green VIX and 700++ red Futures for quite a while in recent times already lol.

The last was during Oct 2018 and Dec 2018 during Fed rate hike iirc lol.

Knn... just remembered... prior to the CNY period, Ray Dalio, Paul Tudor and Stanley druckenmiller... those hedge fund guys were damn positive on stocks lol.

https://www.google.com.sg/amp/s/www...as-everybody-wants-in-on-the-2020-market.html

And greed and fear index were at extreme greed.

Really, beware of the crowd at extreme lol. Should have run road by then lol.
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Yes should have started selling when the F&G is at extreme greed level.

I have been reminding everyone in the past few months.
 
revhappy

revhappy

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Great level of vix if you want to sell long term puts now. Sell spy 300 puts for December 2020. Put premiums are going to shoot up today. So you can put in limit price high enough and if you are lucky, you get it.
 
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netzach

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MikeDirnt78 said:
Yes should have started selling when the F&G is at extreme greed level.

I have been reminding everyone in the past few months.
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Ya lor... knn :s22:

Really before CNY everything was rosy lol
Hedge fund guys and all saying this time Ho Sheh Liao lo...

Must take note already next time round....

when everything all nice and rosy, better sell off some, cash out lol
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decibel.

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Well when you see the bull trap should have known better that it's gonna retrace back further.

Sent from HUAWEI VOG-L29 using GAGT
 
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d5dude

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MikeDirnt78 said:
Yes should have started selling when the F&G is at extreme greed level.

I have been reminding everyone in the past few months.
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But stocks have risen a lot in the last few months, you would have missed the boat if you sold stock a few months ago, some more bond yields are so low now, sell already money put where? :(
 
Mecisteus

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d5dude said:
But stocks have risen a lot in the last few months, you would have missed the boat if you sold stock a few months ago, some more bond yields are so low now, sell already money put where? :(
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Some stocks already went up like 30-40% in a year.

It is prudent to take some profits and to give up some gains when the market is overheating.

Even active fund managers do that. They don't remain invested 100% all the time.

With some cash and when the market corrects, you can buy the next beaten down stocks to get ready for the next bull run.

If you hold zero cash, you will miss all the opportunity.

Note: My view is related to active investment strategy. If you are adopting the passive strategy, just continue to buy regularly every month.
 
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Trader11

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I am now 50% cash. Waiting to enter new positions once there are signs of accumulation
 
Trader11

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The herd is shocked now and panic selling. Just curious when is demand coming in.
 
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DukeCS33

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Trader11 said:
The herd is shocked now and panic selling. Just curious when is demand coming in.
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The stock to watch is SPCE - the crash may be just as spectacular as it's run up. This would be my short candidate tonight especially when it gaps below the 33 level.... many would be caught long.

The volume in the SP futures before the market opens is already almost 50% of the average daily volume. The herd is truly shocked. If there is selling, there would also be buying. The key is to differentiate the retail buy on dips vs the professional monies.
 
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limster

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This morning bought
CDG
Sembcorp

Tonite bought
Aviva
Shell
WQDV
VHYD

I'll continue to average down.:)
 
MrHighlander

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Despite the plunge, I find US and Europe to be still very much over expensive

Maybe a 15% pullback yes
 
revhappy

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MrHighlander said:
I wonder how much will AsIa fall tmr

Hang Seng futures already pointing to 26300
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It depends on how US closes. If US recoups gains, expect Asia to bounce back. If US closes at the low point of the day, then Asia will take another knock down.

I personally think, this is just like that one day dip that happened in beginning of Feb when Chinese markets opened after long holiday.

It is like a sudden shock that Europe and Korea got the virus. I think we will see a bounce back, until another major country may be the US gets the virus, then we see another fall.
 
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