*Official* General Market Chit Chat Thread

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lalalalalala

lalalalalala

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StockBot said:
recession is negative GDP wor, havent yet ba

last year 2015 GDP was up 2%

2016 forecast is up 1-3%... shall see if their forecast zhun or not
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i remember i used to learn that we should not use GDP as a measure of a country's economic state in sec school social studies... :s22:
 
OngHuatHuat

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After year 2011 loss of 1 grc, lee hsien long government has shifted their focus, into more populist policy instead of keep chasing gel growth. Last time, global economy was recovering and growing, so sg din feel the impact.

Then last 4 years, in order to please citizens further, government has come out with all the property measure to forcefully press down property price and did a direct hit on property market. Property manufacturing and sales keep going down, until to an extend, government need to refuse land sales due to all developers join force to low ball government.

You see how the rental market perform, you will know it is not the same good old days anymore.

Ask winorlose, after few months of top, did he manage to secure tenancy for his condo?
Ronaldo88 said:
News say sg economy getting bad..haiz..past yrs glory extinguished...
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OngHuatHuat

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You mixed up the concept of bubble and crash. Try distinguish between the 2.

In my opinion, current sg property market is not in bubble region , not at all.

When you look at property market, you don just look at condo market, you need to put more focus on hdb market.

StockBot said:
i worry about the property bubble

if property crash, gg liao

tooo much condos
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Perisher

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Fellow members, in times of difficulty(and opportunity), views do get very conflicted and sometimes words may get heated up, do remain calm. Also, advise all not to provoke others.

If anyone buay song other's pov, there is a ignore function, kindly activate it.
Arguing over points is fine but don't get personal.

Thank all.

I will consider opening a bear thread for all the bearish views if there is a need to.
 
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havetheveryfun

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yyhwin said:
After year 2011 loss of 1 grc, lee hsien long government has shifted their focus, into more populist policy instead of keep chasing gel growth. Last time, global economy was recovering and growing, so sg din feel the impact.
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The thing is, the growth they chased was "fake growth" or short-term growth from the way they did it. It will still collapse in the future if nothing is done.

E.g increasing the popn by such a large amount from importing foreigners so that the GDP will rise as there will be spending. Even if they won the 2011 GE by a big margin and continued to import more foreigners, theres still a limit to how much sg can import and when the target is hit, the GDP would just fall back if nothing was done to solve the original problem
 
Mr.Canberra

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Cash Holdings

StockBot said:
if hold cash 10 years, then inflation how?
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For the past few years my CNY cash holdings are generating an average yield between 4-5% p.a. and you can't get any more liquid than cash liao. My capital gain is 9% as of current market price for CNY /SGD pair.

Why should I take the risk and put into overvalued Singapore stocks with low yields? :s11: Anything below 4% is low yield to me. Can't even beat inflation during high inflation years.

As you can see I'm able to preserve my purchasing power by beating inflation. During deflation years more bonus for me. :s13:
 
ctstalin

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Perisher said:
Fellow members, in times of difficulty(and opportunity), views do get very conflicted and sometimes words may get heated up, do remain calm. Also, advise all not to provoke others.

If anyone buay song other's pov, there is a ignore function, kindly activate it.
Arguing over points is fine but don't get personal.

Thank all.

I will consider opening a bear thread for all the bearish views if there is a need to.
Click to expand...

why need a separate thread for a different view?

like you said earlier in the post, buay song just ignore lor
 
Perisher

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Mr.Canberra said:
For the past few years my CNY cash holdings are generating an average yield between 4-5% p.a. and you can't get any more liquid than cash liao. My capital gain is 9% as of current market price for CNY /SGD pair.

Why should I take the risk and put into overvalued Singapore stocks with low yields? :s11: Anything below 4% is low yield to me. Can't even beat inflation during high inflation years.

As you can see I'm able to preserve my purchasing power by beating inflation. During deflation years more bonus for me. :s13:
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Isn't yuan devaluing? It will probably continue on this path.
 
Asphodeli

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yyhwin said:
China and usa.

People worry about China slow down but not a
China that enters recession.
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the world was fine without china opening up in the 70s to early 00s...dunno why people get so worked up over china's economy... :s22:

havetheveryfun said:
The thing is, the growth they chased was "fake growth" or short-term growth from the way they did it. It will still collapse in the future if nothing is done.

E.g increasing the popn by such a large amount from importing foreigners so that the GDP will rise as there will be spending. Even if they won the 2011 GE by a big margin and continued to import more foreigners, theres still a limit to how much sg can import and when the target is hit, the GDP would just fall back if nothing was done to solve the original problem
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yeah...it's an artificial, short-term solution to use foreign labor (ever noticed the amount of construction that goes up whenever we have a recession? hehe), especially when we see that instead of improving the quality of our exports, we are just trying to race to the bottom in costs, and for sure will lose one. now that the govt has shifted it's stance to value creation, it's much better. businesses might whine, but it's high time they got a taste of their own medicine.

yyhwin said:
You mixed up the concept of bubble and crash. Try distinguish between the 2.

In my opinion, current sg property market is not in bubble region , not at all.

When you look at property market, you don just look at condo market, you need to put more focus on hdb market.
Click to expand...

yes it's not - for now, anyway. i think a reasonable price level for property should be around 2010/2011 valuations.
 
OngHuatHuat

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I can tell you a hard truth, those sme that leverage on cheap labor, they moved out from sg market to iskandar.

And looking at how the rental market perform, I can say if the situation persists, Singapore economy will collapse much sooner than expected. For those of you who hold bank shares but hoping for a lousy rental and property market, you are just naive to believe weak rental market won't lead to bad debt problem.

havetheveryfun said:
The thing is, the growth they chased was "fake growth" or short-term growth from the way they did it. It will still collapse in the future if nothing is done.

E.g increasing the popn by such a large amount from importing foreigners so that the GDP will rise as there will be spending. Even if they won the 2011 GE by a big margin and continued to import more foreigners, theres still a limit to how much sg can import and when the target is hit, the GDP would just fall back if nothing was done to solve the original problem
Click to expand...
 
Perisher

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ctstalin said:
why need a separate thread for a different view?

like you said earlier in the post, buay song just ignore lor
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Sometimes, too many buay song, then might as well split them instead of keep putting out fire. Hopefully they can learn to ignore, makes things easier.
 
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