ussr_1991
Banned
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- Jan 24, 2007
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Guys, by nw everyone noes that LTK mentioned for oppositions to be effective, we need at least 20 of them voted in the parliament.
Some of us here was like wtf, why at least 20 when u need 30 to block certain amendments to constitution?
Heres my 2 cent view:
1) Expected more will lead to more disappointment (希望越高，失望越高).
Currently the seat held by opposition is 7, this is nearly twice of the peak in 1991 with 4 SMC (3 from SDP, 1 from WP).
By suggesting 20, realistically speaking it is nearly triple of what the current have.
It is considered as an improvement and there are threads here even discuss which GRCs are sure win for MIW.
Low of course can say 30 or 40 and go and contest them, apart of resource being spread thinly, lack of quality candidates and more 3 corner fights, the point is still, the middle ground voters will find it a lost cause.
So LTK is being defensive here, he never say it is bad for opposition to have 30 or 50 seats for that matter!
2) LTK had mentioned that the Oppositions are NOT ready to form the government for at least 20 years back in 2011 GE. He had also mentioned then that changing of govt will be an issue for LTK's successor to figure out. LTK is now in his 60s.
- To prove that in actions, he would have to contest less than 1/3 of the seats. This means that the sole veto is NOT within LTK rights as he liked. We can hate MIW for various policies and problems, but nobody would like to see a Pan-Blue / Green fight like Taiwan or Republicians VS Democrats that resulted a govt shutdown years ago.
3) With that being said, naturally WP will not go and contest against PM & DPM. WP had tested PM's popularity in 2006 by a suicide squad and somehow WP can get 1/3 of the votes.
Even clown teams from RP subsequently contest against Pinky without ANY preparation still can received 30% of the votes, which are all very close to how Chiam See Tong's first election (1976) as an independent against a minister in Cairnhill with 31.8%.
This proved that the use of high caliber people in wards held by PM & DPM is also useless given that they are unlikely to win until the day where the oppositions are ready to form the government. However, it is very useful to stop them from repeating the 1997 Cheng San again. This is also win the war, lose the battle with the use of cannon fodders.
Thus AMK, Jurong & Pasir Ris - Punggol voters, do what os right.
4) LTK knows that by adjusting the figure lower to 20, it will attract hard core opposition supporters to rebut him that 20 is a too low target. Hence inevitably, LTK is also helping other opposition parties to win some seats as well, notably SPP (Mountbatten & Bishan Toa Payoh GRC). If SDP also wins some SMC and preferably a GRC, then the 20 seats or rather 30 seats goal is reached. But whether can they outperform WP or nt is another issue.
I can bet that WP in GE 2020 will field at least 1/3 of the seats, should WP wins at least 15 seats.
5) Lastly even back in 2006, CST's SDA has a motto which is to win at least 15 seats and hopefully can form a viable shadow cabinet. LTK's target from it was not far fetched either given the 'inflation of seats'. Back then, there were only 84 MPs.
Some of us here was like wtf, why at least 20 when u need 30 to block certain amendments to constitution?
Heres my 2 cent view:
1) Expected more will lead to more disappointment (希望越高，失望越高).
Currently the seat held by opposition is 7, this is nearly twice of the peak in 1991 with 4 SMC (3 from SDP, 1 from WP).
By suggesting 20, realistically speaking it is nearly triple of what the current have.
It is considered as an improvement and there are threads here even discuss which GRCs are sure win for MIW.
Low of course can say 30 or 40 and go and contest them, apart of resource being spread thinly, lack of quality candidates and more 3 corner fights, the point is still, the middle ground voters will find it a lost cause.
So LTK is being defensive here, he never say it is bad for opposition to have 30 or 50 seats for that matter!
2) LTK had mentioned that the Oppositions are NOT ready to form the government for at least 20 years back in 2011 GE. He had also mentioned then that changing of govt will be an issue for LTK's successor to figure out. LTK is now in his 60s.
- To prove that in actions, he would have to contest less than 1/3 of the seats. This means that the sole veto is NOT within LTK rights as he liked. We can hate MIW for various policies and problems, but nobody would like to see a Pan-Blue / Green fight like Taiwan or Republicians VS Democrats that resulted a govt shutdown years ago.
3) With that being said, naturally WP will not go and contest against PM & DPM. WP had tested PM's popularity in 2006 by a suicide squad and somehow WP can get 1/3 of the votes.
Even clown teams from RP subsequently contest against Pinky without ANY preparation still can received 30% of the votes, which are all very close to how Chiam See Tong's first election (1976) as an independent against a minister in Cairnhill with 31.8%.
This proved that the use of high caliber people in wards held by PM & DPM is also useless given that they are unlikely to win until the day where the oppositions are ready to form the government. However, it is very useful to stop them from repeating the 1997 Cheng San again. This is also win the war, lose the battle with the use of cannon fodders.
Thus AMK, Jurong & Pasir Ris - Punggol voters, do what os right.
4) LTK knows that by adjusting the figure lower to 20, it will attract hard core opposition supporters to rebut him that 20 is a too low target. Hence inevitably, LTK is also helping other opposition parties to win some seats as well, notably SPP (Mountbatten & Bishan Toa Payoh GRC). If SDP also wins some SMC and preferably a GRC, then the 20 seats or rather 30 seats goal is reached. But whether can they outperform WP or nt is another issue.
I can bet that WP in GE 2020 will field at least 1/3 of the seats, should WP wins at least 15 seats.
5) Lastly even back in 2006, CST's SDA has a motto which is to win at least 15 seats and hopefully can form a viable shadow cabinet. LTK's target from it was not far fetched either given the 'inflation of seats'. Back then, there were only 84 MPs.
