Hi
@BBCWatcher, I,m wondering how I can factor in inflation to the calculation? Is it I have to fair value the monthly expense yearly over the period?
Yes, you could incorporate an inflation assumption into monthly expenditure needs. For example, if you believe you need $1,500 per month in 2023 for a ”good enough“ lifestyle and want to forecast 3%/year inflation then that’s $1,545 in 2024, $1,591.35 in 2025, etc. The formula is:
Future Nominal Dollars Needed = Current Nominal Dollars Needed * (1 + Inflation Rate) ^ (Number of Years to that Future Year)
For example, to determine how many dollars you need in 2043, assuming $1,500/month in 2023 and 3%/year inflation, it would be:
1500 * 1.03^20
= $2,709.17
A simple spreadsheet can help.
For expected lump sum insurance payouts you could make some simplifying assumptions. For example, if you were to receive a $500,000 lump sum payout you might assume a “Safe Withdrawal Rate” if that sum has to support you for the rest of your life. If you were to use a SWR of 3% then that would mean you could spend $15,000 (3%) in the first year, or $1,250 per month. Then increase that $15,000/year for inflation only. All unspent dollars would be invested in a mix of a low cost stock index fund and a low cost bond index fund (or similar), in a 50-50 ratio for example. No, you probably cannot use a 3% SWR if you were to keep this insurance payout in fixed deposits, SSBs, and T-bills. And 4% would be too high because that assumes a classic retirement age (age 65), not trying to endure from age 40 for example. (4% is probably too high even in that classic retirement scenario.)
Anyway, exactly how you do this is up to you. But somehow you have to take inflation and your realistic investment assumptions into account. If you’re just going to deposit an insurance payout in a fixed deposit then you’ll need to spend that payout much more slowly (lower SWR) because it’ll grow that much more slowly. Or if you chuck it all into a single REIT that goes bankrupt you’re totally screwed. So some investment assumptions make sense depending on what you’re actually going to do in a claimable event.
DII payouts are monthly, not lump sum. However, you still have to incorporate inflation. And that means actually saving/investing a portion of initial payouts so that you can offset inflation. Unless you opt for the 3%/year payout escalation feature (one DII carrier offers that), but that doesn’t increase your sum assumed (initial payout amount). Which is probably OK since presumably you’re saving and prudently investing while you’re not disabled, so that you have more financial stamina if disaster strikes. Also, DII payouts stop at age 65 maximum (or age 70 if you have a claim from the MINDEF/MHA group DII plan). You could be disabled (unable to work and earn an income) but live to 100+. That happened to one of my ancestors, actually. So you still need to incorporate a retirement leg to that financial trajectory. This is easier if you have nailed down a good CPF LIFE income stream.