Blockchains, Cryptocurrencies, and Trump

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
24,469
Reaction score
5,527
At least Trump and his Dodge team is trying to reduce/control national debt.
No, they're doing the opposite. Firing Inspectors General (without replacements), slashing the IRS's budget, and piling on more tax cuts all boost U.S. federal government budget debts and deficits.

Would you like to bet on a bigger, smaller, or about the same U.S. federal government budget deficit 2 years from now?
 

matsusho

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 21, 2016
Messages
515
Reaction score
108
Trump has had 8 years to plan and test the US justice system and figure out just how much power the executive has.

But more importantly, I don't think he cares if the things he issues Executive Orders for actually work out. All he cares about is that his actions move markets, and then he or his cronies do their insider trades before he retracts them.
Indeed, his words move the market more than any other president in the world currently.
 

matsusho

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 21, 2016
Messages
515
Reaction score
108
Given that Trump's tenure lasts till Jan 2029, and he has stepped up his efforts to boost the Crypto space, the odds of the price of major cryptos/layer-1 blockchains rising within the coming 4 years is higher.

May be good to throw in a bit to speculate (and knowing full well it may go to 0), and exit by Nov 2028.
BTC still most likely?
 

DevilPlate

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 22, 2020
Messages
12,252
Reaction score
5,165
No, they're doing the opposite. Firing Inspectors General (without replacements), slashing the IRS's budget, and piling on more tax cuts all boost U.S. federal government budget debts and deficits.

Would you like to bet on a bigger, smaller, or about the same U.S. federal government budget deficit 2 years from now?
If he can reduce the rate of deficit increment already not bad liao.
whahaha
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
24,469
Reaction score
5,527
If he can reduce the rate of deficit increment already not bad liao.
OK, would you like to bet that the U.S. federal government's budget deficit will be higher, lower, or about the same 2 years from now?

I'm expecting higher.
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
24,469
Reaction score
5,527
Here's part of the reason I'm expecting higher U.S. federal government budget deficits: they rose (and even accelerated) during the first Trump presidency. I'm going to ignore Fiscal Year 2020 since special COVID appropriations dramatically affected that budget. Let's look at fiscal years 2017, 2018, and 2019. Note that FY2017 wasn't entirely Trump's. FY2017 started on October 1, 2016, and Trump wasn't inaugurated until January 20, 2017. So FY2017 only serves as a baseline for these purposes. I'm also listing FY2016 just to get a little pre-Trump trend analysis. Here we go!

FY2016: US$0.59T
FY2017: US$0.67T (+13.6%)
FY2018: US$0.78T (+16.4%)
FY2019: US$0.98T (+25.6%)

I'm quite sure that's not deficit reduction! Even assuming deficit reduction is a worthy policy goal, and that's not a given.
 

FelixYong@

Banned
Joined
Dec 16, 2024
Messages
20
Reaction score
10
It could definitely stir things up in the crypto world. His push for a U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve already sparked some excitement, with Bitcoin and altcoins like XRP seeing pretty decent gains. But, his policies also created some uncertainty in the past.

With all these potential shifts happening, must always stay informed with Moomoo news, for myself lah.
 
Last edited:

matsusho

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 21, 2016
Messages
515
Reaction score
108
It could definitely stir things up in the crypto world. His push for a U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve already sparked some excitement, with Bitcoin and altcoins like XRP seeing pretty decent gains. But, his policies also created some uncertainty in the past.

With all these potential shifts happening, must always stay informed.
Maybe crypto will transit into steady gains over a longer term tool instead of quick gains over short period of time (which is what most of it is currently)
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
24,469
Reaction score
5,527
I suppose he could instruct his FBI Director to pause sales of seized cryptocurrencies and declare that small sum the Trump Cryptocurrency Reserve. Or something like that.
My post aged well! That's exactly what Trump did: sign an executive order to establish a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" which consists of a relatively small amount of Bitcoin the U.S. federal government already holds from criminal and civil asset forfeiture proceedings.

In other words, he didn't do anything real. He just slapped a silly name on something that already exists.
 

di_andrei

Member
Joined
Aug 31, 2009
Messages
257
Reaction score
46
In other words, he didn't do anything real. He just slapped a silly name on something that already exists.
I wouldn't say it's not significant - the different US agencies currently hold around 200,000 BTC or 17.5bn USD. If not for the order, this stockpile would have hit the markets (adding a lot of supply). For reference this is more than a year's worth of total mining output. Sure, markets may have expected more, but this is not insignificant at all. It's also a positive signal for BTC credibility, conceivably more countries could now enact similar measures.
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
24,469
Reaction score
5,527
I wouldn't say it's not significant - the different US agencies currently hold around 200,000 BTC or 17.5bn USD. If not for the order, this stockpile would have hit the markets (adding a lot of supply). For reference this is more than a year's worth of total mining output. Sure, markets may have expected more, but this is not insignificant at all. It's also a positive signal for BTC credibility, conceivably more countries could now enact similar measures.
Nah, it's all quite silly. The market capitalization of Bitcoin is over US$1.76 trillion, daily volume is 3 times the entire U.S. holdings, the normal sale of U.S. federal government Bitcoin holdings is slow and spread out anyway (the previous president didn't order a quick sale), Trump could change his mind at any time, and given the turmoil in the DOJ and FBI it's likely that further asset seizures will slow.
 

ykeen

Moderator
Moderator
Joined
Jul 31, 2000
Messages
4,635
Reaction score
128
My post aged well! That's exactly what Trump did: sign an executive order to establish a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" which consists of a relatively small amount of Bitcoin the U.S. federal government already holds from criminal and civil asset forfeiture proceedings.

In other words, he didn't do anything real. He just slapped a silly name on something that already exists.


Yes

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/wor...ve-order-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-us-4983791

"This is the most underwhelming and disappointing outcome we could have expected for this week," Charles Edwards, founder of Bitcoin-focused hedge fund Capriole Investments, wrote in a post on X.

"No active buying means this is just a fancy title for Bitcoin holdings that already existed with the Govt. This is a pig in lipstick."
 

di_andrei

Member
Joined
Aug 31, 2009
Messages
257
Reaction score
46
Nah, it's all quite silly. The market capitalization of Bitcoin is over US$1.76 trillion, daily volume is 3 times the entire U.S. holdings, the normal sale of U.S. federal government Bitcoin holdings is slow and spread out anyway (the previous president didn't order a quick sale), Trump could change his mind at any time, and given the turmoil in the DOJ and FBI it's likely that further asset seizures will slow.
OK, so would you like to bet that BTC will be higher, lower, or about the same 2 years from now?
 

FelixYong@

Banned
Joined
Dec 16, 2024
Messages
20
Reaction score
10
Maybe crypto will transit into steady gains over a longer term tool instead of quick gains over short period of time (which is what most of it is currently)
Doubt it. Moomoo reported that Bitcoin prices went down. It’s not looking too optimistic at the moment. Personally, I’d say just keep doing DCA and stay the course.
 

CrashWire

Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 28, 2000
Messages
5,931
Reaction score
801
If he can reduce the rate of deficit increment already not bad liao.
whahaha
It's one thing to slash costs (like what Ng Yat Chung did to companies), it's another to fire people working in the US profit centres like the IRS.
 

BBCWatcher

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Jun 15, 2010
Messages
24,469
Reaction score
5,527
It's one thing to slash costs (like what Ng Yat Chung did to companies), it's another to fire people working in the US profit centres like the IRS.
Or Inspectors General as another notable example. Or selling government real estate (with its low imputed rents) which simply leads to paying higher market rents for space — and selling now, in this real estate market, when there’s a glut of commercial space. Or firing the crack, small, elite (and inexpensive — low civil servant salaries) IT team called 18F that was doing fantastic work across government to automate and streamline processes, for example helping the IRS deliver simpler direct tax filing so they could collect more tax.

There’s also the fact that it’s illegal to reduce or eliminate appropriated spending. Doubly illegal when an unconfirmed presidential “advisor” does it. It costs more money to halt spending you’ll have to pay back, with interest and penalties — plus court-related costs. Plus if (more likely when) you tank the real economy, government spending automatically increases and tax receipts automatically fall. And if you do it in a way that’s inflationary (“stagflationary”), interest on debt increases too.

On top of all that, go take a look at workforce size as a percentage of population. It was already really low! Lower than it’s been in at least half a century. If there was an overall problem it was an over reliance on contractors rather than direct employees. But that problem gets worse when you fire direct employees.

It’s certainly possible to cut spending as much or as little as a president might desire. The President can simply go to Congress, negotiate and agree on a new budget, and reduce spending that way. The President’s party has numerical majorities in both houses of Congress, and they can pass a budget without opposition votes if they want to pass a budget. Whereupon their boards of directors (voters) will retain or fire them as soon as 2026.
 
Important Forum Advisory Note
This forum is moderated by volunteer moderators who will react only to members' feedback on posts. Moderators are not employees or representatives of HWZ Forums. Forum members and moderators are responsible for their own posts. Please refer to our Community Guidelines and Standards and Terms and Conditions for more information.
Top