BTO vs Resale Condo

Romeo007

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Question is whether should stick with BTO or buy resale.

Buy resale better coz you can

1. Buy under single name
2. Avoid opportunity cost of waiting 10 years
3. Can save money on rental
4. Macroeconomics looks ripe for further property price increase.
 

BBCWatcher

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Companies took on debts to expand their business. For REITs, they use it to acquire commercial entities for rental income. Accretive acquisitive will increase dividends back to stakeholders. I’m not arguing on this point. This is the nature of all businesses.
Yes, and that's called leverage, in the form of a mortgage (or mortgages). It's exactly the same thing, except you personally are not liable for the debt.
For my own experience, I utilised bank loans not for rental income, but for capital appreciation after 3 years. The cycle repeats.
Well OK, but REITs can do that too. They will often opportunistically sell highly capital appreciated assets. So?
Yes HDB may be attractive in the past, but not now given the long construction time and MOP.
The evidence suggests HDB flats are getting more attractive, not less. There's significant "compression" between HDB resale flat valuations and comparable 99 year leasehold private condo valuations.
Coupled with the need to use 2 names (there are ways to use one) and also incur ABSD for a second property, it is definitely not the way to go for mid-to-high income earners.
You don't need two names as owners! It's easier to use one name as owner when the acquisition price is lower (as it is for a HDB BTO)! All you need is an "essential occupier" as the second name, if you even need that. The essential occupier (spouse, typically) is free to buy a home after the MOP, without ABSD (current rules, subject to change of course -- but that's not unique). And all parties are free to buy REITs and other non-direct home purchase investments.
Private home prices rose by 10% in 2021.
Right, and HDB resale flat prices jumped 12.7% in 2021!
Given that one only need to fork out 25% for down payment, the returns are magnified to by 4x ( simplified for the sake of argument) on average solely based on your initial outlay.
If you're eligible for a HDB Concessionary Loan you don't even need 25%, and the single owner name is that much easier for a HDB BTO since the initial capital outlay is much lower. AND you can still invest in the meantime, just not in direct home purchases, that's all. Everything else is fine -- stocks, bonds, REITs, you name it.
To be able to afford a 2+1 apartment at the age of 30, TS will be better off with taking the private home route. Opportunity costs matter.
Disagree. Private home prices are at or near all-time highs, and rental yields are still extremely low on them. Interest rates are headed up, and HDB has been caught flat footed with limited supply. (Not HDB's fault.) In the balance of risks I'd be highly inclined to go the HDB BTO route. It remains a very good deal indeed.
Question is whether should stick with BTO or buy resale.
Buy resale better coz you can
1. Buy under single name
YOU. CAN. BUY. A. HDB. FLAT. UNDER. A. SINGLE. NAME! Resale or BTO. And it's EASIER to do that (lower capital outlay). You may need an essential occupier, but that's not an owner.
2. Avoid opportunity cost of waiting 10 years
What opportunity cost? Go invest! Just do something else, anything else besides a direct home purchase.
3. Can save money on rental
Can also save money on condo maintenance fees, mortgage interest, own unit maintenance, earlier renovation/outfitting, property tax, and all the other expenses involved in buying instead of renting. You also have more free cashflow, a nice thing to have during (for example) a bout of unemployment or other family emergency. And more useful liquidity. You can sell 5 shares of a stock fund, 8 shares of REIT, 10 shares of a bond fund, or whatever. You haven't got a ~$1.5M (or whatever) mortgage hanging over your head, and with interest rate risk to boot.
4. Macroeconomics looks ripe for further property price increase.
Do they? I don't know, nor do you. But OK, if that's your forecast...you can buy REITs! There's nothing stopping you from profiting from real estate if that's the bet you want to place.

Do we have a lot of property agents in this thread? šŸ˜„
 

8zaoyu

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That resale condo got future potential such as a new MRT in the build or not?
If not, BISHAN BTO are mostly earners just shy of $14k (with bonuses) nowadays.
HDB BTOs short of facilities most hardly use after initial excitement, otherwise the whole world salivates.
 

Romeo007

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Wait for BTO and invest instead
- Investment is not for everyone. Also, buying a resale does not mean you cannot invest in stocks. By all means go and invest in stocks, reits, donkeys.

Property price very high. What if it crashes. Interest rates going up
- If you scared property price very high don't buy now lah. Wait a few years later when it crashes maybe. But if you choose BTO, u would have lost this opportunity, hence the opportunity cost. Later after 10 years when you want to upgrade to condo, confirm prices will be higher than they are now. You scared of interest rates going up, u cannot make money. U just have to prepare better for it.

Buy reits instead of property
- This one ah not same as property, Don't go outside and say to your friends. If you want to make same gains, u need to put same money you put in property. How many people will put 100 200k in reits alone.

HDB price also rise alot leh. Can get HDB loan leh. The price gap between HDB and private getting wider.
- There is a reason why price gap is wide. Coz there are so many, going to build so many more. Price cannot go too high, if not it won't be called 'public housing'. Your HDB loan interest also very high and comes with alot of caveats. What about quantum? 10% rise in 600k HDB vs 10% rise in 1.6m condo is 2 different animal. So please, by all means keep comparing HDB vs condo. HDB not stupid. They know ppl make money off bto, hence the MOP period. Don't be fooled by the profits. Its just a compensation for your time.

Rent a house first, wait until BTO ready.
- This one is the best idea to remain poor. You basically pay money for somebody's mortgage instead of using the money for investment or paying for your own home. Rent also not low, keep increasing. Expats all come back after covid, u kenna kick out.

Condo must pay maintenance
- Ofcause lah, coz u enjoy the perks mah. U want to live a shitty life renting and scared rental may go up and waiting for your BTO or a comfortable life in your own house. HDB rent or not also must pay carpark, town council, tax etc. You think all these not factored into ur rent by the owner meh?

Condo too much leverage, little cash flow
- Ofcause lah, thats how you make money. You scared then you are not financially ready. Stick to BTO
 

BBCWatcher

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Buy reits instead of property
- This one ah not same as property, Don't go outside and say to your friends. If you want to make same gains, u need to put same money you put in property. How many people will put 100 200k in reits alone.
I'll pick this one to react to. What the heck else are REITs if not real estate?!?!? That's what the RE means! Of course it's the same basic bet. It's just a different way to make that particular bet, but with variations on what sector of real estate, location, increment(s), etc. (REITs are quite flexible.)

And OK, if you're not willing to put S$200K in REITs, then why are you willing to put S$300K down on a S$1.2M condo — a riskier proposition since it's a single home with personal debt liability? If you invest S$200K in REITs (or a REIT index fund) then the most you can lose is S$200K — exceedingly unlikely, especially for a REIT index fund that's at least reasonably diversified. If you put S$300K down on a condo then the most you can lose is...more than S$300K! Mortgages in Singapore are full recourse mortgages. If the value of the condo falls to S$800K (-33%) that's a capital loss of S$400K and you're fully responsible for it. Can this happen? Well yeah, it can! It has before.

To be clear, I'm not necessarily recommending REIT investments either. But IF you want to invest in real estate, REITs and REIT index funds are easily available to you with just a few clicks or taps. And you can precisely control the risks you're taking. If for example you want to take precisely S$83,000 of principal risk, you can. Direct purchase of real estate means extremely lumpy risks, and the potential capital loss is more than your principal (down payment).
 

sgbird

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Now the key question is : will the condo price keep increasing to skyline? Is it a top peak now? Under nearly post-covid, US federal interest up cycle and Russia-Ukarine war situations, how will the property market go?
 

BBCWatcher

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Now the key question is : will the condo price keep increasing to skyline? Is it a top peak now? Under nearly post-covid, US federal interest up cycle and Russia-Ukarine war situations, how will the property market go?
That's not the key question. It never is.

As a periodic reminder, making some pool of dollars grow into more (nominal dollars) is utterly boring and ordinary. If you want to take some Singapore dollars and generate more of them, that's super easy: park them in Singapore Government Securities. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is auctioning a pair of SGSes later this month (March, 2022), both as reopened bonds. They'll yield a positive rate of interest, and if held to maturity the Government of Singapore guarantees you'll end up with more Singapore dollars than you started with because you'll receive coupon payments along the way. They're the very safest parking place for Singapore dollars.

No, the question is really "Is this vehicle the 'best' available for my additional savings (my next dollars)?" "Best" incorporates several factors such as risk assessments.
 

sgbird

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That's not the key question. It never is.

As a periodic reminder, making some pool of dollars grow into more (nominal dollars) is utterly boring and ordinary. If you want to take some Singapore dollars and generate more of them, that's super easy: park them in Singapore Government Securities. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is auctioning a pair of SGSes later this month (March, 2022), both as reopened bonds. They'll yield a positive rate of interest, and if held to maturity the Government of Singapore guarantees you'll end up with more Singapore dollars than you started with because you'll receive coupon payments along the way. They're the very safest parking place for Singapore dollars.

No, the question is really "Is this vehicle the 'best' available for my additional savings (my next dollars)?" "Best" incorporates several factors such as risk assessments.
Thank you for your reply. Actually my 2 cent point is quite simpler: If you think condo price still goes up, then buy condo otherwise buy bto. Investment in bonds/securities and investment in property are different for most of us, property gives us the feeling of safe and real, plus satisfy the living esential requirement, these are bonds/stocks/securities cannot provided.
 

BBCWatcher

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Thank you for your reply. Actually my 2 cent point is quite simpler: If you think condo price still goes up, then buy condo otherwise buy bto.
Uh, no. That just doesn't make any investment sense. "Goes up" doesn't mean anything. Your Singapore Savings Bonds and Singapore Government Securities (when held to maturity at least) will "go up," and the Government of Singapore guarantees that they will. That's nothing special. Even your ordinary bank account at DBS "goes up" by as low as 0.05% interest p.a.

Everything is relative. If your forecast is that the condo is the next best available savings vehicle, and if you feel confident enough in your forecast, then (and only then) should you choose it.
 
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