[MAP] GRC Map analysed - how to breakthrough PAP defense !

upslorry

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Here is the result of percentage votes PAP has gotten in Election 2011:

Jj8GF.jpg

As the above map has shown, it seems the percentage of votes PAP has on the East side is largely below 59%, therefore PAP will have a big problem of redrawing GRCs in the East for the next election to their advantage.



6gxBJ.jpg

As above, the red zones are the areas which has less than 59% votes for PAP, which may mean that the larger concentration of people unhappy with the PAP are concentrated on the East. SMCs like Potong Pasir and Joo Chiat will have difficulty being redrawn to any nearby GRCs because obviously the areas are all below 59%




QbaGk.jpg

Above map shows the opposition party movement in the areas they contested in.

Light Blue: Workers' Party
Red : SDP
Green : NSP
Yellow: RP
Violet : SPP

The East side is that of mainly Workers' Party's, it is likely that Workers' Party has a longer history than the other opposition parties and having a higher popularity, therefore causing a sway of votes to the opposition in the East. While the SDP having some bad incidents in the recent 5-10 years may have caused them to drop in their popularity.


Conclusion: It seems the East side has a much better chance of being won over by the opposition since -
1. PAP votes are below 59% and
2. PAP will have difficulty to redraw GRC in the East because of low votes in the East almost everywhere

Therefore, it may well mean that the Workers' Party may emerge as the second largest political party within the next 10 years.



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jedi

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can some PHD or kind soul do a colour temp chart tracing the voting pattern since the last elections ? Will be very telling if the temperature shows a trend leaning either way.

i suspect the election department / political parties have such a chart, jus not released.

someone volunteer ? :)
 

starbugs

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If the East-West theory is right, PAP may (out of desperation) decide to join Hong Kah North and Joo Chiat to become Hong Joo GRC. :eek: :s22:

I don't think there is any rule that says a GRC must be contiguous. Even Pakistan and Bangladesh used to be one country;)
 

Heron_Kusanagi

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If the East-West theory is right, PAP may (out of desperation) decide to join Hong Kah North and Joo Chiat to become Hong Joo GRC. :eek: :s22:

I don't think there is any rule that says a GRC must be contiguous. Even Pakistan and Bangladesh used to be one country;)

87 seat GRC, perhaps?
 

NTB2DO

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Therefore, it may well mean that the Workers' Party may emerge as the second largest political party within the next 10 years.


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Ya. Cos we Singaporeans are generally very cautious (kiasi), if a party is not proven, we normally won't want to take the risk lor.
 

cancer81

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If the East-West theory is right, PAP may (out of desperation) decide to join Hong Kah North and Joo Chiat to become Hong Joo GRC. :eek: :s22:

I don't think there is any rule that says a GRC must be contiguous. Even Pakistan and Bangladesh used to be one country;)

without understanding the history behind that.... you are just discrediting yourself over how East and West Pakistan became Pakistan and Bangladesh
 

crntbs

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I do not think this is a fair analysis. You'll have to factor in the contesting opp party as well.
 

upslorry

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Did you credit YawningBread for his analysis? Not doing so is plagiarism.

This analysis is from my own and i made the top two maps, including all the comments
i only used his below two maps to indicate opposition movements that's all
if must give credit i rather remove the below two maps as they dont really contribute to my analysis

ok i have removed his maps, using my own
 
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kenloonglow

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Now all focus on Aljunied, see how they get their "treatment" on repent. If WP do a good job, then other areas may follow, if we keep on seeing Aljunied go complaints, not many ppl will dare to vote opp.
 

siloti

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MOD --- please DONT accuse me of digging old threads.....


Election comes once every 5 years, it is time to revive this thread.
 

guitar123

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Tin Pei Ling

A very pregnant Tin Pei Ling giving an interview to the media.

I hope ruling party fields her in her SMC.

 
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