[OFFICIAL] S&P 500 Market Watch

[aurvandil]

The S&P 500 has emerged as one of the favorite investment instrument of Singapore investments. This thread is for all who trade /invest in it. I will be posting my thoughts on market developments as and when they happen. All prices in my posts are with respect to the S&P 500 ES futures.

 

[aurvandil]

3 May 24

Key levels above for the S&P are 5120 and 5150 in the futures. Expecting fierce resistance and a lot of chop between the 2 levels.

Best case scenario is for a favorable NFP tonight which gives a clear breach of the 5150. This then brings the 5220 into play. While we might get a test, it is unlikely that this level will be breached. Market has recovered a lot of lost ground and will likely consolidate heading into CPI and Nvidia earnings.

In the unlikely event the 5220 is breached, this signals a substantial shift in sentiment to Risk On. This brings the ATH of 5333.50 back into play.

If we get a hot NFP and market sells off, key levels below are 5020 and 4960.

 

[wutawa]

I have cspx and spyl.

 

[limster]

LSPU and VUSD are my choice for S&P500 ETFs

 

[narutos]

My base case for the year is SPY will have ATH upon ATH.

 

[condovshdb]

i subscribe to the meltup -> bust forecast

 

[jinsatkilife]

The S&P 500 has emerged as one of the favorite investment instrument of Singapore investments. This thread is for all who trade /invest in it. I will be posting my thoughts on market developments as and when they happen. All prices in my posts are with respect to the S&P 500 ES futures.

would be good if u can edit and provide ur daily thoughts on key levels during key events for first post
for eg, what's the key S/R for today

 

[aurvandil]

would be good if u can edit and provide ur daily thoughts on key levels during key events for first post
for eg, what's the key S/R for today

I'll do my best to share my thoughts. I don't use support and resistance. I look at order flow to determine key levels which I shared in the second post. These are levels i am watching for tonight's NFP. My interest is how the market behave at these levels. Depending on the interaction, we then gain some understanding of where the market is headed to next.

 

[RedsYWNA]

SPXS (LSE) is my choice of S&P 500 etf.

 

[condovshdb]

I'll do my best to share my thoughts. I don't use support and resistance. I look at order flow to determine key levels which I shared in the second post. These are levels i am watching for tonight's NFP. My interest is how the market behave at these levels. Depending on the interaction, we then gain some understanding of where the market is headed to next.

which data feed and platform do you use for OF?

 

[BusinessFinancing]

I'll do my best to share my thoughts. I don't use support and resistance. I look at order flow to determine key levels which I shared in the second post. These are levels i am watching for tonight's NFP. My interest is how the market behave at these levels. Depending on the interaction, we then gain some understanding of where the market is headed to next.

By using order flow, the timeline to recommand key levels is pretty short-lived.

For the rest, why not just try to enter upon x% of pullback and hold it.

Since the nature of S&P is only up and up in the long run

 

[aurvandil]

which data feed and platform do you use for OF?

I am using Level 2 from CME and IBKR. IBKR is the main platform I use for execution.

 

[aurvandil]

By using order flow, the timeline to recommand key levels is pretty short-lived.

For the rest, why not just try to enter upon x% of pullback and hold it.

Since the nature of S&P is only up and up in the long run

I suppose it depends on your time frame and trading strategy. A simple BTFD strategy for the S&P is very profitable.

 

[d5dude]

Long term investor of CSPX since 2011, imho its tough to go wrong with this over the long run.

 

[SpeedingBullet]

CSPX here.. when im bored then SPY options trading

 

[aurvandil]

4 May 24

Favourable NFP data leading market to spike and close above 5150 in the futures. Auction appears truncated by the weekend. The 4963.50 low from 19 April appears secure and we are likely to see a continued advance to test the 5220 when trading resumes next week.

Over in Treasuries, there is a significant drop in yields across the entire yield curve. FED funds futures which had priced no rate cuts for the year has now priced back in a cut at the Sep FOMC and the possibility of a second cut at the Dec FOMC. These positive developments will help sustain the move up.

These is no major event risk on the calendar next week. The following week we have CPI on 15 May. FED forecast is that inflation is likely to remain high at 3.5% with the number only to start coming off in the following print. Expectation therefore is that while we might get a test of 5220, we are unlikely to breach as everyone hedges in case the number comes out hotter than expected. There is asymmetric risk to the upside if the number comes in cooler than expected. In this scenario, market will likely spike above 5220 and make a beeline for a new ATH above 5333.50.

 

[aurvandil]

7 May 24

Market has grinded up to 5200 but has yet to test 5220. The move up is well supported with all 11 sectors that make up the index showing gains. Treasury yields are showing early signs of a short term bottom and are unlikely to press much lower unless there is an unexpected favourable CPI print.

Expectation remains that while we might test the 5220, it is unlikely that there will be a substantial break through and move to make a new ATH above 5333.50. As we progress into week, expectation is there will be weakness and some retracement as everyone hedges ahead of CPI on 15 May.

 

[aurvandil]

8 May 24

Market tested the 5220 but did not manage a substantive breakthrough. Treasury yields are showing divergence, indicating that we are perhaps coming to a short term bottom in yields post NFP. Divergence is also emerging in the performance of the 11 sectors that make up the S&P. Expectation is that market is making a short term rounded top. We have reached mid week and sentiment is so far remarkably sanguine. Not much hedging order flow for the upcoming CPI event risk. If the market comes off, first key level below is 5140.

 

[aurvandil]

9 May 24

Market moving sideways near the key 5220 level. There was a failed attempt to push lower just before market open. Volume was low and the range was tight. Market continues to remain sanginue about the upcoming CPI. There is a notable lack of hedging order flow and VIX has fallen to 13.00. This is substantialy different from previous CPI releases. The absence of hedging sets the stage for asymetric risk to the downside if CPI comes out hotter than expected.

 

[stanlawj]

9 May 24

Market moving sideways near the key 5220 level. There was a failed attempt to push lower just before market open. Volume was low and the range was tight. Market continues to remain sanginue about the upcoming CPI. There is a notable lack of hedging order flow and VIX has fallen to 13.00. This is substantialy different from previous CPI releases. The absence of hedging sets the stage for asymetric risk to the downside if CPI comes out hotter than expected.

Are you analysing the options on SP500? Including 0dte? If not you're missing out a big part of the market.