STI to 10k

[spearhawk]

full DBS report below.
https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/...attachment/20251022/251022 Singapore 2040.pdf

what's your take?

 

[spearhawk]

What Does It Take for STI to Reach 10,000 by 2040

The STI currently trades at 4,227 (6 Aug) – implying a 12-month forward PE of 13.3x and current EPS of 325 points – with a dividend yield of 5%. Our end-2025 target of 4,430 is pegged at slightly below 13.8x (+0.5SD) FY26F PE at blended EPS growth of 3.8% over FY25F/26F.

We outline three scenarios for the STI:

Steady Pace: Assume (i) the STI reaches and sustains 13.8x (+0.5SD) 12-month forward
PE, and (ii) an annual EPS growth rate of 3.8%. Attaining STI targets of 5,000 and 5,500
requires EPS to grow by 14% and 25% from current levels, respectively. Under these
conditions, it would take the STI 3.5 years to reach 5,000 and six years to hit 5,500.

Accelerated Pace: Under sustained conditions of improving investor sentiment,
reforms to revive the Singapore equity market, and a low-interest-rate environment,
assume (i) the STI reaches and sustains 14.5x (+1SD) 12-month forward PE, as seen
during 2010-19, and (ii) an annual EPS growth rate of 5%. Attaining STI targets of 5,000
and 5,500 requires EPS to grow 8.5% and 19.3% from current levels, respectively. Under
these conditions, it would take the STI less than 1.75 years to reach 5,000 and 3.5 years
to hit 5,500. Based on this annual EPS growth trajectory, the STI could rise to nearly
10,000 by 2040.

Slow Pace: Assume (i) the STI holds at 13.2x (average) 12-month forward PE, and (ii)
an annual EPS growth rate of 3.8%. Attaining STI targets of 5,000 and 5,500 requires
EPS to grow by 19% and 31% from current levels, respectively. Under these conditions,
it would take the STI 4.75 years to reach 5,000 and 7.25 years to hit 5,500.

 

[elvintay07]

I think all 3 banks and REITs probably can. If they add in other clowns in STI, they tends to bring the team down. Haha

 

[mikafire]

妙想天开 for current range of stocks

 

[addict951]

妙想天开 for current range of stocks

But why 妙想天开 ?
10 years ago if I had shouted DBS $50 you also say 妙想天开 ah?

 

[elvintay07]

To be honest, I think very difficult for STI to hit 10,000.

Actually this video is same as what I think. lol! Crap. But I believe market will continue to go up as a lot of people miss the boat. But soon will chibaboom

 

[havetheveryfun]

To be honest, I think very difficult for STI to hit 10,000.

I think is possible if is by 2040, if inflation continues on like this.

but when hit 10k, is not really because STI 10k, but the 10k value of STI in 2040 is maybe around the current STI level of value 5k in 2025.

 

[athulican]

ML is quite a perma bear, and always exaggerates - "US dollar is toilet paper" (BRK keeps >300B USD), "chibbom back to 2008". Is the current situation similar to the GFC? If real estate really drops 20%, do you think stocks, no matter sg/us/hk, will be spared?

 

[elvintay07]

ML is quite a perma bear, and always exaggerates - "US dollar is toilet paper" (BRK keeps >300B USD), "chibbom back to 2008". Is the current situation similar to the GFC? If real estate really drops 20%, do you think stocks, no matter sg/us/hk, will be spared?

His message is does Sheng Siong make sense at 27 PE? I think that is the answer la

 

[spearhawk]

extract another interesting part of the report.

Liquid Assets Remain Very Underinvested in the Singapore Stock Market

Funds remain relatively underinvested in Singapore equities by historical standards, despite
the STI reaching all-time highs. As of 6 August 2025, the ratio of FTSE ST All-Share market
capitalisation (SGD720.5bn, representing 98% of the SGX mainboard universe) to M2 stood at
0.84, close to the lows seen during GFC.

We believe the stock market capitalisation / M2 ratio could further recover with continued
global funds inflow, a low domestic interest rate environment, and current MAS support
measures aimed at deepening participation in Singapore equities beyond the small handful
of STI heavyweights. Singapore’s M2 has grown at an average annual rate of SGD27.8bn
since 2000.

Assuming M2 holds steady at SGD857.9bn and the stock market capitalisation / M2 ratio
recovers to 1.0 (still well below the pre-COVID range of 1.1-1.45 from 2012 to 2019) from the
current 0.84, this implies a potential SGD137.4bn liquidity injection into the Singapore
equity market. That is well above the SGD5bn from MAS’ Equity Market Development
Programme (EQDP) and the SGD15-30bn potential inflows through the Global Investor
Programme (GIP) from single family offices.

A recovery in the Singapore stock market capitalisation / M2 ratio to 1x represents a 19% increase from the current SGD720.5bn. Applying a similar 19% increase to STI market capitalisation would translate to a theoretical index level of 5,092. If the stock market capitalisation / M2 ratio were to recover further to 1.1x, the STI’s theoretical level would be 5,600.

 

[hwmook]

ML is quite a perma bear, and always exaggerates - "US dollar is toilet paper" (BRK keeps >300B USD), "chibbom back to 2008". Is the current situation similar to the GFC? If real estate really drops 20%, do you think stocks, no matter sg/us/hk, will be spared?

Does anybody take ML seriously? He got no data and no analysis, just anyhow talk only. Waste my time watching this guy talk.

 

[trave1er]

Does anybody take ML seriously? He got no data and no analysis, just anyhow talk only. Waste my time watching this guy talk.

I also wondered why people were quoting his words. Quite a stretch to be called a Master, although I understand it is branding. Misleading branding.

 

[DevilPlate]

I also wondered why people were quoting his words. Quite a stretch to be called a Master, although I understand it is branding. Misleading branding.

There is Only 1 and Only 1 “people” here who keep posting ML’s vids!!

Maybe ke siao trying to promote his YT channel lah

 

[CrashWire]

Got someone jitao suan him on Reddit:

 

[elvintay07]

Just to be fair, master Leong not really wrong but this is 2025 liao. he forgot

(1) algorithm trading
(2) lots of liquidity
(3) smarter retail investors

not like last time, all the old folks run when the market crash. Now the rich and smart retails will jiak. Also nothing like institutional got major advantages vs retail. The gap has closed

 

[Shion]

However the weightage of the 3 banks + Singtel is now over 60% of STI, with DBS alone over 25%.

 

[limster]

Just to be fair, master Leong not really wrong but this is 2025 liao. he forgot

Sifu master Leong said only buy DBS below $30.

Your master target price for DBS is below $30. You must be his hard-core supporter if you think he is 'not really wrong' about the STI.

I also wondered why people were quoting his words. Quite a stretch to be called a Master, although I understand it is branding. Misleading branding.

Elvintay07 calls him sifu master Leong

 

[elvintay07]

Your master target price for DBS is below $30. You must be his hard-core supporter if you think he is 'not really wrong' about the STI.




Elvintay07 calls him sifu master Leong

$30 is possible. Don’t say no. Personally I think more downside than upside. A lot of our shares don’t make sense already. Machiam ppl find Google ex but Sheng Siong at 27 PE is cheap. lol!