*Official* Shiny Things club - Part 2

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Nick67

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reits are for losers...
'nuff said.

the only time reits was good was at the initial launch, then it's welcome to hell all the way for most.

No, that's not quite " ' nuff said". That's saying nothing at all.

I'm looking at my friends who are holding a diversified reit portfolio and it's constantly giving them an average of 5.5% p.a. dividend yield for the past couple of years. That is on top of the capital appreciation. If we include capital appreciation the number is closer to 10% in some cases.
 

pmstudent

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Why are reits generally unpopular in this thread? Seems like whenever I talk to my friends at least a couple of them will strongly recommend reits as an investment instead of etfs.

For those who invested heavily in REITs for the past 20 years, they would be extremely happy and sitting on top of a very handsome total return.

For those who didn't, they would say hindsight is 20 20,and they couldn't possibly knew REIT performance would be so great.

It is your choice to adopt a very purist diversification method, or core - satellite approach to overweight on certain sectors.
 
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Shiny Things

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Also, may i ask.. if i accumulated big enough portfolio in SCB for IWDA, for example 100K usd worth.. can i port them over to IB? advisable to do that?

Yep, you can do this (and it’s a good idea).

Thinking if this Thailand FD is better than SSB.

I know i have to take into consideration of FX.

Couple of things to think about:

1) Yes, as you mentioned, FX. I’d even go further and say that Thailand is one of those countries where if you’re planning to retire there, you don’t want to own local-currency assets; you want to own hard-currency assets (global stocks and bonds) instead.

This is normally something I only run across with my larger consultancy clients who want to retire to smaller countries, but if someone came to me and said “oh and I want to retire to Thailand”, I would not put them in THB fixed-income or Thai equities; I’d point them to a global portfolio instead, because the risk of a sudden devaluation in Thailand is pretty significant.

2) Which bank is offering these rates - what’s their credit rating like? Do you trust them to be around in three or four years when you crack the term deposit open?

How do you guys feel about AGG then? No withholding tax?

Not a particularly huge fan. Why would a Singaporean resident want to own a lump of American bonds unless you’re planning to retire there.

Hi fellow experts, this is my first post after reading ST e-book and would like some clarification.
I am currently in university (freshie) and have a lump sum amount of $60k

Crikey, when I was a freshie my bank account had about enough money in it to cover a cup of coffee. You’ve done pretty well for yourself!

The brokerage that I will be using should be SC for all the bonds and equities.

May I know if this is correct? Or is it a better option to split up my lump sum into monthly payments and then use IB for IWDA/ SC for local?

The problem you’re going to run into is that IBKR doesn’t let Singaporean residents buy Singaporean stocks; you’ll have to have a Stanchart account for the MBH and ES3. Other than that, you’ve got absolutely the right idea.

Hi Shiny

Thoughts on Phillip SING Income ETF?

Seems to be dividend focused and is it a good alternative to investing in STI ETF?

Nope. The fees are higher than ES3; and being a dividend ***** is a dangerous game to play. You’re less diversified because you’re putting all your money in banks and REITs. Better to spread it out; less yield, more capital gain.

Any one invested in lse? Is it recommended?

What?

Hi ST and others, I see the point that the US stock market =/= the US economy. Since Donny is obviously accelerating the decline of US as a country and probably its economy, are there any long-term effects on the strength of USD?

No. Donny Two Scoops can try to talk down the dollar as much as he wants, but at this point everybody in the market has realized that he can’t do squat to actually influence the strength or weakness of the USD (unless he has pics somewhere of Jerome Powell getting intimate with a goat).

In other words, how should I worry about the long-term currency risks when I buy ETFs in USD?

People have already pointed this out, but when you buy an ETF, you own the stocks in that ETF. You don’t own a pile of US dollars, you don’t own a pile of US-dollar-denominated-bonds-that-will-repay-US-dollars. You own stocks. So you don’t actually have exposure to the currency that the ETF is denominated in.

With the suspension of Maybank MIP, buying of MBH is getting a little bit more expensive. Rather than looking into bond etf, i am thinking whether i should keep cash in high interest savings account that can give me 2% consistently, assuming i can fulfill the requirements.

I’m not a big fan of these, for a couple of reasons:
1) They tend to have a lot of hoops to jump through. As an example: the Citibank one is relatively popular, but you have to hold money in there for at least a year before you make the maximum yield - and as soon as you take any money out, the interest rate resets to the lowest rate. That makes it well suited for an emergency fund, but very bad as an investment where you might want to take money out every 6-12 months to rebalance. You’ll constantly be resetting to the lowest interest rate.
2) They have caps on the amount you can keep in them - $150k in the case of the Citi account. Any amount above that earns a pittance. This might not seem like a constraint now, but after a couple decades it’ll be a problem;
3) The interest rate is still lower than you’d get from MBH.

It’s a bit of a pain that MBKE pulled their MIP. In the alternative, until a better plan comes along, POSB’s InvestSaver plan (buying A35 instead of MBH) is perfectly good.

Is iShares Global Corp Bond UCITS ETF the best recommendation for a corporate bond ETF?

Shiny, you suggested this bond to be before, as I mentioned I was unsure of where I will settle down/retire.

When I looked at the performance, it seems very fluctuating. Are there any others worth considering?
That one moves around a lot because it’s got bonds of a bunch of different currencies in it. You’ve got currency risk as well as everything else.

Hi Shiny, BBC, and all other experts,

I have been DCAing to IWDA monthly using IB without any doubt until I read a post today, saying that the number of IPOs has increased sharply and most of the companies are not even profitable. I believe this is a sign of a market crash.

Not to speculate or anything, but in the current market situation, would you recommend any different actions, rather than DCAing monthly as usual, to be taken? like hold off DCA for a while or even sell?

Firstly, think for a moment about whether it’s a good idea to pivot your entire investment strategy based on one blog post. If you did that, you’d be pulling your money from the market and re-adding it basically every day.

That aside: the point of dollar-cost-averaging is that you’re buying when the market is up and when the market is down. When the market is down, your monthly investment is able to buy more shares, so you’re getting a better deal.

Markets will go up and down; they always do. The best thing you can do is set your strategy on autopilot so that you don’t wake up one morning and have a panic attack and pull everything based on something some rando wrote on their LiveJournal.

Why are reits generally unpopular in this thread? Seems like whenever I talk to my friends at least a couple of them will strongly recommend reits as an investment instead of etfs.

Not REITs in particular, but real estate in general: I’m not a huge fan of it as an asset class. In the US, at least (and definitely in the Singaporean residential context), it tends to be a pretty spectacular underperformer over long time periods. Most US real estate outside of a few hot markets still hasn’t recovered from 2008; and last I checked Singaporean condo prices are actually down from when I left in 2012.

Now people will contradict me and say “but SG-REITs have done so well, obviously residential real estate is dumb but SG-REITs don’t own residential real estate!”. I mean, firstly, just because SG-REITs have outperformed stocks for the last few years doesn’t mean they’ll do that forever and ever amen; they eventually have to come back to earth.

The other thing is that price data and total-return data for SG-REITs can be a little misleading. SG-REITs are non-stop users of rights issues to raise capital for more acquisitions; that means holders are constantly getting diluted. But that dilution doesn’t show up in price or total-return data.

So the people who claim that SG-REITs are totally awesome are fixating on two things:
1) You’re pretty much entirely betting on Singaporean commercial real estate (office building and shopping malls) and industrial real estate (factories and warehouses). The smarter long-term play is to own the companies that use those office buildings and warehouses. If you own the REITs, all you get is the rent; but if you own the companies, then you get to share in the profits.
2) They’re getting a little blinded by the yield. Singaporean commercial and industrial real estate yields about 4-6%, but that comes with a lot of volatility; if the economy slows down, you’re going to be the first one to take the hit.


So, is there still a rationale to use SCB instead of DBSV cashupfront for purchase of MBH bond component?

SCB priority vs non priority
- 0.18% to 0.2%, 10 dollar minimum, custodian
DBSV Cashupfront
- 0.12%, 10 dollar minimum, CDP supposedly (I'm waiting for their reply on this just for confirmation)

Yeah, you’re missing that DBSV charges their full rate (0.28%) on the sell side. Stanchart is at least decent enough to only charge 0.18% when you sell, so you’ll probably end up paying less at Stanchart.
 

BBCWatcher

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I am not concerned about privacy, air con, or number of occupants in a room. But I am concerned with how fast we can get surgery etc. Like if the waiting time in public is months while the ones in private are in days, I feel it could be a matter of life and death or how long lasting the effects are. Can anyone enlighten like whats the disparity between waiting time?
It’s not anything like that.

In a medical emergency, you’re going to be taken to the nearest public hospital A&E via SCDF ambulance, always. There’s no choice in that. SCDF ambulances will not drop you off at a private hospital. Some private hospitals have facades that notionally look like A&E entrances, but they’re really not equipped for such services at all.

The sort of delay that might actually exist is the delay in getting non-emergency treatment, which can range in sub-emergency priority. I’ve seen some data on that, such as these international comparisons. Singapore looks OK, basically.

One side benefit of having a quality “as charged” public hospital B1 ward plan that doesn’t have proration factors for “unsubsidized” care is that you can enter the public medical system as a so-called private (unsubsidized) patient and still get full coverage. In practice you get some “queue jumping” ability that way.

You’re also always free to pay cash to go elsewhere, in Singapore or elsewhere. Your “as charged” Integrated Shield plan will still pay a big chunk of those expenses in Singapore at least, and you’ll have that much more cash and MediSave to handle the remainder. Also, you can stay in the lowest class ward to economize. Private hospitals in Singapore offer some 6 bedded wards, for example.

This is a judgment call, of course, but it’s a very reasonable judgment on what constitutes a necessity. Again, I’m not opposed to buying “nice to haves” provided you’ve already taken care of all other necessities, including insurance necessities.
 
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BBCWatcher

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It’s possible real estate will outperform other sectors over the next couple decades. But if you’re investing in a bog standard STI fund (such as ES3) you’re about 15% exposed to real estate within that fund — my back-of-the-envelope estimate after untangling the cross ownership complexities — plus whatever you decide in terms of your own home. You’re not ordinarily going to be missing real estate. You’ll be quite exposed to it without really even trying much.

Should you eat even more chocolate for breakfast, or only chocolate, metaphorically speaking? No, I wouldn’t. Let the markets figure out which sectors will outperform others going forward. If that’s real estate, great, you’ll do fine. (That 15% will increase, and so will your home.) If it’s not, you’ll still do fine assuming you’re at least reasonably well diversified, doggedly save, and prudently invest. Nobody is arguing for zero real estate exposure, or even anything close to that.
 
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littleredboy

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Actually is retiring in USA not that ideal for a Singaporean?

I have a dream, own a small farm in a town, own few dogs, few horses, some cows, not for income but to spend the time. Not that far from the city, but at least far enough to avoid the crowds and have time to travel within US.

Ive been to many many countries due to work, travel every month for the past few years, getting tired of my job scope, intending to slow down and switch.

Ive never touched USA, and unsure if it is the right place for a Singaporean to retire.
 

ftpofmpo

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"The receding tide of globalisation has far-reaching consequences for the global economy and financial markets. Low inflation, high economic growth and a rising share of profit in the global economy have powered financial markets over the past three decades, producing long-term bull markets for bonds and stocks. All three trends could be reversed in the coming decades; both bonds and stocks could be heading for protracted bear markets." - Andy Xie

Still a good time to invest in stocks ?
 

crystalnox

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"The receding tide of globalisation has far-reaching consequences for the global economy and financial markets. Low inflation, high economic growth and a rising share of profit in the global economy have powered financial markets over the past three decades, producing long-term bull markets for bonds and stocks. All three trends could be reversed in the coming decades; both bonds and stocks could be heading for protracted bear markets." - Andy Xie

Still a good time to invest in stocks ?

All three trends could be reversed in the coming decades, or continue on for a fourth and even fifth decade. That paragraph tells you nothing about whether it’s going to be a good time or not.
 

Sinja89

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Phillips vs Posb IS

Hello I'm a small time investor with monthly investment on
280 Es3 and 140 MBH

Previously on MBKE, since it's discontinued now. Isn't it Phillips plan is better ? As I'm buying 2 counters ( $6 1-2 counters ) and they offer ES3 and MBH . The only down side is they charge 1% dividend handling fee. Which I think it's minimal.

Or

Posb IS - G3B
SSB or Abf ( BBC advised it's better to buy SSB directly rather than Abf )

Any suggestions?

Thanks
 
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pmstudent

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It’s possible real estate will outperform other sectors over the next couple decades. But if you’re investing in a bog standard STI fund (such as ES3) you’re about 15% exposed to real estate within that fund — my back-of-the-envelope estimate after untangling the cross ownership complexities — plus whatever you decide in terms of your own home. You’re not ordinarily going to be missing real estate. You’ll be quite exposed to it without really even trying much.

Should you eat even more chocolate for breakfast, or only chocolate, metaphorically speaking? No, I wouldn’t. Let the markets figure out which sectors will outperform others going forward. If that’s real estate, great, you’ll do fine. (That 15% will increase, and so will your home.) If it’s not, you’ll still do fine assuming you’re at least reasonably well diversified, doggedly save, and prudently invest. Nobody is arguing for zero real estate exposure, or even anything close to that.

BBC, your diversify-at-all-cost, not-taking-a-view approach is fine and historically it worked.
But your recommendation is too black or white, I think it is totally fine to have majority of allocation in a core (global index) and perhaps 10-30% in a satellite (specific domains that you are bullish based on your analysis) portfolio.
 

chyn_no

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Hi shiny.. If we hv already build a substantial amount for VHYD for a few years, is it a logical step to sell off all and use the proceed to buy VWRD/IWDA?
 

BBCWatcher

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Actually is retiring in USA not that ideal for a Singaporean?
The U.S. doesn't offer a retirement visa as such, so it's not viable for most Singaporeans. Among the few exceptions are the legal spouses (same and opposite sex) of U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents.

Medical care is infamously expensive in the United States, and retirees tend to consume more medical services than others. If you're U.S. Medicare eligible then you should be fine, but otherwise it can be a challenge.

BBC, your diversify-at-all-cost, not-taking-a-view approach is fine and historically it worked.
But your recommendation is too black or white, I think it is totally fine to have majority of allocation in a core (global index) and perhaps 10-30% in a satellite (specific domains that you are bullish based on your analysis) portfolio.
OK, nice hypothesis, but where do I find a crystal ball that's going to provide terrific (or at least decent) advice concerning which sector(s) to overweight?
 

pmstudent

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OK, nice hypothesis, but where do I find a crystal ball that's going to provide terrific (or at least decent) advice concerning which sector(s) to overweight?

If I have a crystal ball, I would invest > 100% to the sector, with max leverage. :) not as a satellite portion.
 
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BBCWatcher

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If you're U.S. Medicare eligible then you should be fine, but otherwise it can be a challenge.

Ah thanks i completely forgot about medical
As long as "Obamacare" remains intact -- or the Democrats gain power and improve it -- elder immigrants can get insured. Prior to "Obamacare" the medical situation was really dreadful for elder immigrants, among others.

Let's suppose you're a 70 year old male Singaporean, you're not U.S. Medicare eligible, but you're married to a U.S. citizen or U.S. permanent resident and go live with your spouse in Miami. You can obtain an "Obamacare" medical insurance policy via Healthcare.gov (the U.S. federal exchange), and there are no preexisting condition exclusions....

....But it is not cheap. The lowest cost plan, assuming you don't qualify for tax subsidies (your income is "too high"), is US$780/month (2019). There's a US$7,900 annual deductible, so you pay that amount first for your medical care. And you're limited to a "network" of medical providers (doctors, hospitals, clinics, etc.) -- you cannot obtain care from every provider.

....But it is excellent. Above the deductible, and within the network, the coverage is very, very comprehensive. Virtually all acute care is covered without any additional expense for the amount above the annual deductible, including prescription drugs and even emergency care outside the United States.

Once you've clocked 5 years of U.S. residence, and if your spouse is U.S. Medicare eligible, you should be able to enroll in Medicare. That'll be more affordable than the exchange policy, and if it's a "Medicare Advantage" plan it should provide still comprehensive coverage (without a provider network) but with much lower out-of-pocket costs.

Where you can really rapidly run down assets is with long-term care, which is also quite expensive in the United States. You can usually get LTC insurance, but it too is rather expensive.

Anyway, there are solutions available if you can get past the significant immigration restrictions, but as always (with every retirement destination) you have to do some careful research and budgeting.
 
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BBCWatcher

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If I have a crystal ball, I would invest > 100% to the sector, with max leverage. :) not as a satellite portion.
Right, so since you don't have such a crystal ball, why would you overweight any sector?

If you're doing it (overweighting something) for the entertainment value, to gamble, OK, fair enough. If you can afford that, if it doesn't get out of hand (it's not a major part of what you're doing), and if it gives you pleasure, then that'd seem fine to me.
 

pmstudent

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Right, so since you don't have such a crystal ball, why would you overweight any sector?

If you're doing it (overweighting something) for the entertainment value, to gamble, OK, fair enough. If you can afford that, if it doesn't get out of hand (it's not a major part of what you're doing), and if it gives you pleasure, then that'd seem fine to me.

Yes, I like this answer better, not an outright rejection on a benign overweighting. I reckon you also have small bets on sector specific ETF and even individual stocks, right?

I wouldn't use such a strong word called gamble for overweighting particularly sectors within a thershold of 10-30%.

Frankly, portfolio A has 15% of REITs, and portfolio B has 30% of REITs. 10 years later, which portfolio perform better? The probability is still 50%, without the benefit of hindsight. It is a "gamble" for either case.
 
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Wonderer haha

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It’s possible real estate will outperform other sectors over the next couple decades. But if you’re investing in a bog standard STI fund (such as ES3) you’re about 15% exposed to real estate within that fund — my back-of-the-envelope estimate after untangling the cross ownership complexities — plus whatever you decide in terms of your own home. You’re not ordinarily going to be missing real estate. You’ll be quite exposed to it without really even trying much.

Should you eat even more chocolate for breakfast, or only chocolate, metaphorically speaking? No, I wouldn’t. Let the markets figure out which sectors will outperform others going forward. If that’s real estate, great, you’ll do fine. (That 15% will increase, and so will your home.) If it’s not, you’ll still do fine assuming you’re at least reasonably well diversified, doggedly save, and prudently invest. Nobody is arguing for zero real estate exposure, or even anything close to that.

Also take note that the STI reserve list, which comprises of 5 non-constituents of STI are all Reits currently. It is likely (I also don't have crystal ball) that the STI will have a higher % of real estate in near future. My 2 cents thought.
 

Fcesca

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That one moves around a lot because it’s got bonds of a bunch of different currencies in it. You’ve got currency risk as well as everything else.

Hi Shiny,

In this case, do you think it is still the best recommendation for bonds, if you do not know which country you will retire in?

Alternatively, what are the best bonds if you are going to retire in the UK>?
 
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