2020 market expectations and positioning

[Trader11]

Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crash correctly, claims global equities could take a 40% hit because of the coronavirus outbreak.
Dow Jones jumped over 5% on Monday, but such volatility is indicative of a bear market rally.
Roubini’s prediction may prove correct as rate cuts will fail to work as a measure to stimulate spending. Investors losing faith in the Federal Reserve’s ability can lead to a brutal stock market crash.

 

[ocs_woodlands]

Fed doesn't have much ammo left....

Anyway, my position is short.

Rex short at 190 for 150k
DBS short at 2410 for 500.

Might add to shorts if the market doesn't open too low..

 

[coolhead]

if we are looking at another shithousery in stock market, may have to sell off gold miners again.... once beaten twice shy.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[coolhead]

Fed doesn't have much ammo left....

Anyway, my position is short.

Rex short at 190 for 150k
DBS short at 2410 for 500.

Might add to shorts if the market doesn't open too low..

gxgx. your dbs short is confirmed gain. Sold my ocbc 2 weeks back but don't dare short coz Singapore stocks have low beta though highly correlated to US stocks.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[BBCWatcher]

Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crash correctly, claims global equities could take a 40% hit because of the coronavirus outbreak.

I hope he’s right in his political prediction at least.

 

[roflolmao]

I'm going to go in

Buy no scared, scared no buy
Be greedy when others are fearful
Time in the market, beats timing the market
Dollar cost averaging
Fundamentals have not changed
Long term, Dow Jones and s&p always increase
Every second you are not in the market, you are losing via opportunity cost

 

[coolhead]

I'm going to go in

Buy no scared, scared no buy
Be greedy when others are fearful
Time in the market, beats timing the market
Dollar cost averaging
Fundamentals have not changed
Long term, Dow Jones and s&p always increase
Every second you are not in the market, you are losing via opportunity cost

fundamentals have not changed?


Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[DukeCS33]

fundamentals have not changed?


Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

More likely his cut and paste trolling has not changed.

 

[revhappy]

The Fed will throw rate cuts, QE and everything else they have, at the markets. So I dont see much downside here. Look at China, inspite of the large scale total shutdown, how liquidity has managed to keep their markets orderly. I expect the same thing to happen to S&P also.

Looking back Dec 2018 low of 2400 on S&P was such a great buy opportunity. I doubt if you will get even 2750 in this round. If 10 year yields go negative, people who rebalance their portfolio will not get out of stocks.

 

[scaredcloud]

I'm going to go in

Buy no scared, scared no buy
Be greedy when others are fearful
Time in the market, beats timing the market
Dollar cost averaging
Fundamentals have not changed
Long term, Dow Jones and s&p always increase
Every second you are not in the market, you are losing via opportunity cost

Sometimes, "greed" is misinterpreted as "fear".
Mike Pence stressing 'Fundamentals Of This Economy Are Strong' time and again is a good sign.

"Fundamentals of our economy ... " thus spoke McCain.

Anyway I am going in (went in) too, just with not more than 20% of available funds.

 

[Trader11]

The Fed will throw rate cuts, QE and everything else they have, at the markets. So I dont see much downside here. Look at China, inspite of the large scale total shutdown, how liquidity has managed to keep their markets orderly. I expect the same thing to happen to S&P also.

Looking back Dec 2018 low of 2400 on S&P was such a great buy opportunity. I doubt if you will get even 2750 in this round. If 10 year yields go negative, people who rebalance their portfolio will not get out of stocks.

This is not a liquidity crisis. More of a black swan event. No doubt it will recover. The question is whether now is the time to enter!?!?

 

[DukeCS33]

The Fed will throw rate cuts, QE and everything else they have, at the markets. So I dont see much downside here. Look at China, inspite of the large scale total shutdown, how liquidity has managed to keep their markets orderly. I expect the same thing to happen to S&P also.

Looking back Dec 2018 low of 2400 on S&P was such a great buy opportunity. I doubt if you will get even 2750 in this round. If 10 year yields go negative, people who rebalance their portfolio will not get out of stocks.

You are comparing different markets. There is a vast difference between the US and China in how they operate in the Markets, policy tools and objectives etc. The Chinese would intervene directly into the markets while the US would not.

If the market's confidence cannot be maintained by rate cuts, then it can only be restored when we have positive news on the pandemic front. And after that, given all the liquidity, we may reasonably expect a v shape recovery in the markets... but there is always this question as with all unknowns - what if?

What if the virus exceeds the Spanish flu pandemic? Touch wood... but I think sentiment may only be reversed when the fight against covid 19 is seen to have been won.

 

[coolhead]

The Fed will throw rate cuts, QE and everything else they have, at the markets. So I dont see much downside here. Look at China, inspite of the large scale total shutdown, how liquidity has managed to keep their markets orderly. I expect the same thing to happen to S&P also.

Looking back Dec 2018 low of 2400 on S&P was such a great buy opportunity. I doubt if you will get even 2750 in this round. If 10 year yields go negative, people who rebalance their portfolio will not get out of stocks.

on the contrary, the fed has been tightening the balance sheet from 11th Feb to 25th Feb.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm


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[moolala]

You are comparing different markets. There is a vast difference between the US and China in how they operate in the Markets, policy tools and objectives etc. The Chinese would intervene directly into the markets while the US would not.

If the market's confidence cannot be maintained by rate cuts, then it can only be restored when we have positive news on the pandemic front. And after that, given all the liquidity, we may reasonably expect a v shape recovery in the markets... but there is always this question as with all unknowns - what if?

What if the virus exceeds the Spanish flu pandemic? Touch wood... but I think sentiment may only be reversed when the fight against covid 19 is seen to have been won.

in the mid term, it will go up
this is not spanish flu; mortality isnt that high

 

[scaredcloud]

in the mid term, it will go up
this is not spanish flu; mortality isnt that high

As long as it's keeping events shut, factory output down, retails slump... the mortality rate doesn't really help the situation isn't it?

 

[DukeCS33]

in the mid term, it will go up
this is not spanish flu; mortality isnt that high

It is merely a what-if..... the point I am making is that the markets do not like uncertainty so once we have some clarity on that front, markets may recover.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...e-than-others-2020-02-26?mod=newsviewer_click

 

[Mecisteus]

fundamentals have not changed?


Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

More likely his cut and paste trolling has not changed.

Yes ignore this troll.

He had been repeating the same message since 2018.

Just do us a favor. Use the desktop browser and click report button.

 

[coolhead]

Yes ignore this troll.

He had been repeating the same message since 2018.

Just do us a favor. Use the desktop browser and click report button.

i see... didn't realise until you posted this.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[d9_lives]

Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crash correctly, claims global equities could take a 40% hit because of the coronavirus outbreak.
Dow Jones jumped over 5% on Monday, but such volatility is indicative of a bear market rally.
Roubini’s prediction may prove correct as rate cuts will fail to work as a measure to stimulate spending. Investors losing faith in the Federal Reserve’s ability can lead to a brutal stock market crash.

The same guy?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/stock-market-bulls-have-got-it-wrong-warns-nouriel-roubini-1671690.html?amp

 

[revhappy]

on the contrary, the fed has been tightening the balance sheet from 11th Feb to 25th Feb.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm


Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

Indeed, but that was during past conditions were much better. Now the financial conditions have deteriorated very badly. They could announce QE, large scale assets purchases and even buy stocks, what will stop them? BoJ and SNB already buy stocks. So it is futile to expect a 40% or more crash.