2020 market expectations and positioning

[Trader11]

SG banks hammered

Lower interest rate to make profit from

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That will be next quarter thing. Most likely there will be a weak rally

 

[Dividends Warrior]

Fly, my REITs! FLY!

 

[MrHighlander]

You are right

Markets just flipped red

Fed did an inter-meet cut of 50bps. S&P flipped from -1% to +1%.

Now I worry that the market may reverse its gains.

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[MrHighlander]

Gosh

If it becomes a state where slashing of rates by central banks are impotent, that would probably herald the start of REAL unmitigated fear

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[DukeCS33]

You are right

Markets just flipped red

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I think the market may close green but may struggle to continue to make higher after tomorrow.
Interest rate cut is not a cure for the pandemic and it just needs to run its course.

 

[Trader11]

I think the market may close green but may struggle to continue to make higher after tomorrow.
Interest rate cut is not a cure for the pandemic and it just needs to run its course.

Due to complacency, Potential outbreak coming out in major countries like US, France etc.

 

[coolhead]

Real interest rate has officially turned negative today.

 

[polyglob]

Due to complacency, Potential outbreak coming out in major countries like US, France etc.

US has biggest economy in the world, most liquid stock market, strongest military, yada yada.

France is major in what ah?

 

[cadvin]

Due to complacency, Potential outbreak coming out in major countries like US, France etc.

Yes and it will impossible to replicate in those countries the kind of containment measures that seemed to have work in China and also here in Singapore...

In France people are also planning public protests at the moment against the pension reform...

 

[Mr.Canberra]

WOW! WOW! WOW!

Uncle Powell just saved me from having to top up Forex margin account!

 

[havetheveryfun]

SG banks hammered

Lower interest rate to make profit from

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lower interest rate = more ppl buy property and loan money , more business loan money

u can have very high interest rate but if no one wants to loan then also no use

lower interest rate doesnt necessarily mean lesser biz or profits

 

[DukeCS33]

Inter meet 50bps cut in rates could only push up the market by so little.... I think this does not look good.

 

[coolhead]

10 year bond yields are actually going lower now... at 1.05% as we speak... any idea why it is going lower??? Seems like more bond buying or is the fed not saying something about the risk it knows?

 

[MrHighlander]

Wow wow wow

Deep in the red


This is truly terrifying

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[DukeCS33]

10 year bond yields are actually going lower now... at 1.05% as we speak... any idea why it is going lower??? Seems like more bond buying or is the fed not saying something about the risk it knows?

The market knows that cutting interest rates would not help spur activities as everyone is holing up due to the pandemic.

Potentially massive bear trap in the making.

 

[gamerx]

10 year bond yields are actually going lower now... at 1.05% as we speak... any idea why it is going lower??? Seems like more bond buying or is the fed not saying something about the risk it knows?

The move backfired. I think the rate cut is being interpreted as a sign of desperation.

 

[coolhead]

The move backfired. I think the rate cut is being interpreted as a sign of desperation.

Seems like the market is taking in this rate cut as the fed is not transparent about the need for such a measure.

 

[Mecisteus]

The move backfired. I think the rate cut is being interpreted as a sign of desperation.

This was what happened in 2008 too.

It needed a number of rate cuts then only the market bottomed.

Back then, the crisis was more severe.

This time around, it is just a virus scare. And people are going ape crazy.

The US influenza virus has killed more people than the combined global deaths of COVID-19.

I doubt US market will fall so deeply.

 

[gamerx]

This was what happened in 2008 too.

It needed a number of rate cuts then only the market bottomed.

Back then, the crisis was more severe.

This time around, it is just a virus scare. And people are going ape crazy.

The US influenza virus has killed more people than the combined global deaths of COVID-19.

I doubt US market will fall so deeply.

Maybe the problem is that there's no room for many more cuts this time.

Perhaps some forward thinking people realized this and ran ahead of the crowd.

Also, the mortality rate and comparison to the flu are red herrings. The flu doesn't shutdown China and global supply chains and result in quarantines and scare consumers.

I think there is or will be real fundamental impact from this outbreak, just not sure to what extent yet.

 

[netzach]

Wow. Fug man... thought hammer down already on Friday was the bottom... followed with a 1k+ green candle 🕯....

Now freaking Toh again after rates cut ...

Damn... it turned out to be a dead cat bounce

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