2020 market expectations and positioning

[commie_rick]

Just to clarify, once after hours futures trigger circuit breaker, it will resume only at normal mkt trading hours?

trigger circuit breaker is in normal trading hours.

 

[Trader11]

Charles Munger on how he feels about his stocks going down in 2009

 

[commie_rick]

I'm waiting for 36-38% fall in S&P500.

what song will u sing when it happens?

die for your gov - antiflag ?
f**k authority - pennywise ?
american jesus - bad religion ?
pledge of defiance - total chaos ?

 

[commie_rick]

Hahaha crossover and punk rock fan.



Try powerviolence drumming.

its a great band. heard of man is b@stard? they r sick !

 

[Mecisteus]

what song will u sing when it happens?

die for your gov - antiflag ?
f**k authority - pennywise ?
american jesus - bad religion ?
pledge of defiance - total chaos ?

Welcome to paradise - Green Day

Probably any songs from dookie album.

 

[iantao99]

UK and Germany index down 11-12%.

Will US mkt tonight follow suit with another 10% drop tonight?

 

[revhappy]

STI year to date returns -22.56%!

From a dividend yield perspective, it will take 4-5 years to get back to black, even if you bought it at the peak. Meanwhile, if you have a job, can DCA for next 4-5 years and hopefully STI will climb back up too. So I am optimistic.

 

[gamerx]

UK and Germany index down 11-12%.

Will US mkt tonight follow suit with another 10% drop tonight?

Even so, we would only be roughly back to where we were before Fri.

 

[MrHighlander]

Er

From current level, is 1700 +

I'm waiting for 36-38% fall in S&P500.

Posted from MaMaMia HardwareZone Forums app

 

[MrHighlander]

Agree

That said, it is very possible STI goes below 2000

From a dividend yield perspective, it will take 4-5 years to get back to black, even if you bought it at the peak. Meanwhile, if you have a job, can DCA for next 4-5 years and hopefully STI will climb back up too. So I am optimistic.

Posted from MaMaMia HardwareZone Forums app

 

[havetheveryfun]

From a dividend yield perspective, it will take 4-5 years to get back to black, even if you bought it at the peak. Meanwhile, if you have a job, can DCA for next 4-5 years and hopefully STI will climb back up too. So I am optimistic.

provided we dont get retrenched

 

[havetheveryfun]

May take awhile to develop that.

China has shown the world they can stop it.

Life still has to go on if there is none like the other pandemic viruses.

the amount of money FED is going to pump into the stock markets should have been better used on developing a vaccine ?

 

[revhappy]

the amount of money FED is going to pump into the stock markets should have been better used on developing a vaccine ?

Fed doesnt pump in money, literally. What Fed does is open market operations. It is not literally money printing. They have to buy assets, inorder to create money supply in the system. So they are providing broad based liquidity and they are doing it at zero cost. They have also removed the reserve ratio to be maintained by banks. So all of this not literally money printing, like some doom sayers call.

Regarding using money to develop vaccine, it is the govt's job to provide fiscal stimulus or targeted stimulus to certain sectors. What Fed is doing, is its best to prevent/reduce a liquidity/solvency crisis for companies.

 

[hindsight]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...-trillion-us-corporate-bond-market-2020-03-14

"Some analysts have suggested the Fed should request Congress to change the law to allow the U.S. central bank to include corporate bonds in any future iterations of its asset purchases program, akin to how the European Central Bank has bought corporate debt after the eurozone debt crisis."

Like I mentioned last week, the credit market is under great stress and this is about the only thing that will stabilise it, Powell misfired today, the treasury market is not broken, it doesn't need to be fixed.

 

[coolhead]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...-trillion-us-corporate-bond-market-2020-03-14

"Some analysts have suggested the Fed should request Congress to change the law to allow the U.S. central bank to include corporate bonds in any future iterations of its asset purchases program, akin to how the European Central Bank has bought corporate debt after the eurozone debt crisis."

Like I mentioned last week, the credit market is under great stress and this is about the only thing that will stabilise it, Powell misfired today, the treasury market is not broken, it doesn't need to be fixed.

powell isn't stupid but why is he stupid today? Allowing RRR to be set to 0 is implicitly saying there's a chance some banks dun meet the RRR and for some reason, are so distressed the FED odd to lower the bar for all banks. This is what is spooking me.

 

[hindsight]

Fed doesnt pump in money, literally. What Fed does is open market operations. It is not literally money printing. They have to buy assets, inorder to create money supply in the system. So they are providing broad based liquidity and they are doing it at zero cost. They have also removed the reserve ratio to be maintained by banks. So all of this not literally money printing, like some doom sayers call.

Regarding using money to develop vaccine, it is the govt's job to provide fiscal stimulus or targeted stimulus to certain sectors. What Fed is doing, is its best to prevent/reduce a liquidity/solvency crisis for companies.

QE is money printing, the fed is buying assets with money that was created from thin air.

 

[P R N D]

provided we dont get retrenched

Maybe he is a civil servant.

Having metal rice bowl.

Sent from Mercedes-Benz E250 using GAGT

 

[hindsight]

powell isn't stupid but why is he stupid today? Allowing RRR to be set to 0 is implicitly saying there's a chance some banks dun meet the RRR and for some reason, are so distressed the FED odd to lower the bar for all banks. This is what is spooking me.

I don't think the RRR cut matters much tbh, banks will still conduct their own DD before they lend money, its not like China where lending is usually state directed.

 

[Mecisteus]

the amount of money FED is going to pump into the stock markets should have been better used on developing a vaccine ?

They are doing both.

Governments around the world are doing both.

https://www.investopedia.com/government-stimulus-efforts-to-fight-the-covid-19-crisis-4799723

 

[BBCWatcher]

The U.S. Federal Reserve already has legal authority to buy state and local bonds with maturities up to a maximum of 6 months as of the date of purchase. The Fed didn’t even go this far during the Global Financial Crisis, but it clearly has the power.