Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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babyrobo

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Vickers has custody charge. No no.

Between SC or IB, it depends on how often you're buying. If it's lump sum purchase, SCB. If it's monthly, or you can hit USD 100,000 quickly, IB.

Even for ETF (ABF) under Dbs InvestSaver there's custody charges?
 

swan02

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Supposed by who ? Only Shiny and his followers do.

I’ve never come across any research article that encourages corporate bonds as a buffer to market crashes. In fact they discourage u so. Many have debunk the fallacy of corporate bonds even when risk adjusted returns were studied.

Every single article when referring to buffering bonds uses safe haven government bonds. A35 comes closest yet not perfect.

Because corporate bonds simply have equity risk in them ! holding them is akin to increasing your equity risk.

if you expect bonds to buffer and NOT For long term expected return. You are on the right tract of thinking and not like some who are argue for MBH having better long term returns. When you want better long term returns, you simply increase your equity component while your buffer should be filled with quality safe haven assets. And even they are no guarantees as evidence in the recent bond rout !

Not sure if this has been asked before.
MBH Bond is suppose to be the “cushion” during stock market crash. But why MBH also drop similarly significant in this month of March?

Or this drop in bond is also normal in all other financial crisis?
any reason for the drop? Fear that Corporate unable to perform?
 

Rui Qi

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Hi everyone, I have set up an IBKR account to invest in IWDA. I have done quite a bit of reading but I am still very confused. I can't find a step-by-step guide on how to use IB for investing in IWDA and am very bad with investing/financial related terms. Here are my questions I hope to get answered.

1. Do I need a cdp?
2. IBKR is a brokerage account right?
3. Where does the money go to when I sell the IWDA etfs?
4. Will the etfs be sold in USD or a currency of my choice?
5. Where can I see IBKR's fees (transaction/holding/etc)? I have been searching but cannot find something as clear as e.g. POSB's 0.82% purchase charge and 0% selling charge.
 

Shiny Things

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Time to check in - how’s everyone doing?

I’m glad to see there are people popping up and asking “how do I get started with investing?”. Your timing’s excellent; let’s get to some of those questions now.

I am 30 years old, so my portolio should be 40-40-20. However, under the current situation where the equity etfs' price are low, is it okay if I go with 50-50-0 instead? since I still have CPF which can serves as bonds purpose.

Nah. The idea is to have an allocation and stick to it—that way, you don’t have to guess whether equities are “cheap” or “expensive” or whatever, and you’re not spending your time trying to out-guess the market. You’ve got better things to do.

Also, I have a warchest of around 80k, should I put that all in for investment or keep some in cash? since we are not sure if recession is coming.

If I put all the amount in, should do it lump sum or on a monthly basis? if monthly basis, how much should I put in every month?

The standard approach - the most common way people do it - is to dribble your warchest in over a period of 4-6 months. That way, you avoid the “buyer’s remorse” risk - basically the risk that you’ll buy in with your whole warchest, stocks will dip a bit, you’ll feel bad and bail out. This is a bad outcome, and you want to avoid it if you can.

If you’re going in 20% at a time, or 25% at a time, then you get the opposite effect, and it works really well:
  • If you buy some, and then stocks go up—that’s great! You’ve participated, and made some money;
  • If you buy some, and then stocks go down—that’s fine as well! You’re able to buy more at a lower price, so you’ll have more than you would otherwise.

As for the trading platforms, it really confuses me as there are so many different fees. If after I put my warchest in and I do DCA of S$1000 monthly afterwards,which platform is best for IWDA and ES3 repectively?

$1000 a month is right near the line, but with a big warchest like yours, I’d say you can jump straight to Interactive Brokers for your overseas stocks and Stanchart for your local stocks.

Please pardon me if my questions are ridiculous to you.

No worries—I say this a lot, because it’s true, but we were all newbies once, and everyone has questions that they might think are basic but are really insightful.

Hi Josh
I hope this message finds you well and safe. I purchased your 'Rich by Retirement' book sometime back and have implemented a 3-Fund portfolio as advised in the book.

Thanks! We’re all locked down over here in the Bay Area—I’ve been working from home for nearly four weeks now—and the family and I are all safe and healthy. Can’t ask for more than that.

In my case, I still have 20 years to go; so I can ride this volatility and purchase those counters at a discount. However I have the following doubt:

Imagine someone who is 60 years old today and has a portfolio like this : IWDA (25%), ES3 (25%), MBH (50%). Covid-19 will also cause his portolio value to drop (albeit less volatile than a 70% equities portfolio).

What can he potentially do next?

Firstly: this person’s portfolio is down 12% year-to-date. That’s a bit of a pain, but it’s not bad at all.

That person could probably continue to withdraw at a sensible withdrawal rate with no worries at all. Their portfolio would be yielding about 2.5%, so if they’re withdrawing 3% per annum they’d hardly be selling anything; they’d still basically be living off the dividends.

The toughest thing for this person would be to avoid panicking and selling their stocks down 30% from the highs.

Hi Shiny,

Many thanks for answering my questions. I am so grateful of your help. Without this forum, i dont think I can start this purchase at this great opportunity. Like to clarify on my previous question to u.

[snip wall of text]
For every 1st of the mth for 6 mths, I jus convert my 1000 to usd and use it to buy iwda regardless of the fx rate, iwda price and lot bought on the previous purchases?

This one.

——

This, on the other hand, has completely the wrong idea:
Is today's Dow rebound going to be a dead cat bounce again?

If you’re paying attention to day-to-day moves in the markets—stop. You aren’t an active trader, and you don’t want to be one; paying attention to every little blip up and down will just freak you out.

Hi, just checking if I want to put a lump sum of money for it to grow without any risk, what’s the best platform?

If you want absolutely zero risk: SSBs, or Singapore Government bonds if you’ve got six figures or more. The interest rate will not be very exciting, though.

One quick question.
How would my stocks be handled, if one day SCB collapse? I read somewhere that they are separate so my shares won't be affected? But don't quite get how it works.

That’s correct. Your shares are not held by Stanchart itself; they’re held by a ring-fenced subsidiary of SCB. SCB is not allowed to touch those shares, and if anything were ever to happen to SCB, those shares would be transferred to another custodian. They’d still be yours.

Tiagong IB is going to be launched in S'pore, and they will allow SGX trades from then on.

This is only speculation at the moment. Nobody knows if and when IBKR is going to open a Singapore office; and even if they do open a Singapore office, nobody knows whether they will allow Singaporean residents to trade SGX stocks.

Hi,

Wanted to get some advice.

Is IB still on of the recommended platform for the ETF?

Can we also buy singapore stocks on IB or other platform is better?
  1. Yes
  2. No.

Not sure if this has been asked before.
MBH Bond is suppose to be the “cushion” during stock market crash. But why MBH also drop similarly significant in this month of March?

Or this drop in bond is also normal in all other financial crisis?
any reason for the drop? Fear that Corporate unable to perform?

This is a fair question. First, let’s get this clear: MBH is down about 1.5% since the start of the year. It’s done exactly what it’s supposed to—stabilise your portfolio during a volatile time.

MBH has been tugged in two different directions by two different impulses. On the one hand, corporate credit spreads widened (corporate bonds became perceived as riskier), which was bad for corporate bonds. On the other hand, interest rates collapsed, which has been good for bonds as a whole: lower yield = higher price.

This is very normal behavior for corporate bonds during crises, and it pays to take a slightly longer-term view. Month-to-month swings are volatile, but if you’re investing for years or decades, you shouldn’t even notice them.

MBH wasn’t around during the GFC, but LQD (an equivalent for US dollar bonds) was. Its value peaked in August 2018, dipped in October, and it was back in the black on a total-return basis by December.

The upshot is that I’m still comfortable with corporate bonds instead of government bonds. Investment-grade corporate bonds still have a much higher return than government bonds—more than enough to compensate for any extra risk, as long as you’re comfortable holding them and not bailing out at the lows.

After observing how MBH performs recently, I'll only buy government bonds. I lost my faith in corporate bonds in times of crisis.

Most of the time we're not in a crisis. And when we're not, IG corporate bonds significantly outperform government bonds.

The extra yield you get from corporate bonds more than outweighs the extra risk of default—and the swings and roundabouts that you're seeing right now are a good thing for long-term investors like you. Bond fund managers are selling corporate bonds because they have to, not because they want to; those forced sales are a bonus for you, because you can pick up those bonds on the cheap.

I'm aware of the universe differences across VWRA and IWDA; I just hope to get some guidelines as to which is more suitable for what type of investor. [snip GIGANTIC wall of text]

You’re thinking too hard about this. The performance is basically the same, because the only difference is that a small wedge of VWRA is invested in EM stocks instead of DM stocks. Either one is perfectly fine.

Has anyone tried trading futures on IBKR? Any reviews?

Yeah, I’ve done this and IBKR is very good—connectivity to lots of exchanges, great execution, and relatively generous cross-margining. What specifically do you want to know?

Since you lump sum instead of dca, be prepared to bear the risk

Flowerpalms, be nice. This comment was pretty unnecessary.
 
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Shiny Things

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Hi everyone, I have set up an IBKR account to invest in IWDA. I have done quite a bit of reading but I am still very confused. I can't find a step-by-step guide on how to use IB for investing in IWDA and am very bad with investing/financial related terms. Here are my questions I hope to get answered.

1. Do I need a cdp?
2. IBKR is a brokerage account right?
3. Where does the money go to when I sell the IWDA etfs?
4. Will the etfs be sold in USD or a currency of my choice?
5. Where can I see IBKR's fees (transaction/holding/etc)? I have been searching but cannot find something as clear as e.g. POSB's 0.82% purchase charge and 0% selling charge.

1) no
2) yes
3) It goes to your IBKR brokerage account.
4) It'll be sold in whatever the listing currency of the ETF is. For IWDA that's USD.
5) let me google that for you. IBKR's fee structures are more complex because they offer a lot more markets than POSB, but it's all on there.
 

hahaman111

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ST, I asked the other time but think you missed my question.

A35 or MBH etf for bonds?

Was using SSB but the downside for SSB is that withdrawal for rebalancing need to wait for 1 month (leading to overwithdrawal or underwithdrawal as the value change while waiting).
 

RuiQi_91

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Got a question on options assignment.

How does the option assignment chooses which seller to assign upon? Randomly? Or is there some tracking going on the options you write, which the assignment is then dependant on wheher the end counterparty exercises the option.

Thanks.
 

hwckhs

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Why does it show shares / EUR though? Shouldn't I be purchasing it using USD as mentioned in some other threads? That I need to convert SGD to USD to purchase the IWDA?

The fund is listed on multiple exchanges, and sometimes with the same stock code: https://www.ishares.com/uk/individu...shares-msci-world-ucits-etf-acc-fund#listings

To be exact, you need IWDA on London Stock Exchange (LSE). Looks like you selected the one on Euronext Amsterdam that's why you see EUR.
 

Purplestars

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Not sure if this has been asked before.
MBH Bond is suppose to be the “cushion” during stock market crash. But why MBH also drop similarly significant in this month of March?

Or this drop in bond is also normal in all other financial crisis?
any reason for the drop? Fear that Corporate unable to perform?

This question has been asked for years, and several times by me.

Shiny will just sidestep this question and call you a troll. I have been called that by him multiple times. But he can never address this.

I have always recommended you just keep cash in a high interest bank account, only to be rubbished by him and his loyal followers.

It’s unfortunate that you have been suckered by this bad advice. Now watch me get infracted for calling this out and trying to save people like you from making this mistake.
 

Purplestars

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ST, I asked the other time but think you missed my question.

A35 or MBH etf for bonds?

Was using SSB but the downside for SSB is that withdrawal for rebalancing need to wait for 1 month (leading to overwithdrawal or underwithdrawal as the value change while waiting).

None. Buy SSBs or just hold cash.
 

celtosaxon

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Not sure if this has been asked before.
MBH Bond is suppose to be the “cushion” during stock market crash. But why MBH also drop similarly significant in this month of March?

Or this drop in bond is also normal in all other financial crisis?
any reason for the drop? Fear that Corporate unable to perform?

This is not just happening with MBH in Singapore, but also with bond ETFs listed elsewhere in the world. It has taken many investors by surprise (including myself) since this large drop did not occur in the 2008 crisis.

The way I understand it, there has been an unprecedented level of bond selling recently, and this lack of demand has caused their rates to spike (normally, just the opposite should occur when interest rates are falling). As a consequence, bond ETF prices have fallen... in some cases, detaching widely from their net asset value.

In the US, this lack of bond buyers was creating such a liquidity crunch that the Fed had to step in and start buying up bonds to stabilize the market. This has helped, but it probably won’t get back to normal until this period of volatility has passed.

Personally, I don’t mind high volatility with equities because the value of risk versus rewards is understood. However, I expect bonds to be less risky since they have less rewards to offer. This current experience shows that there are more risks with bonds “in ETF form” than there are in the underlying bond assets. This is because unlike holding an individual bond to maturity, an ETF is forced to sell at bad times when investors in the ETF are abandoning ship.

Please feel free to correct me if my understanding is wrong in any aspect.
 

hwckhs

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This is not just happening with MBH in Singapore, but also with bond ETFs listed elsewhere in the world. It has taken many investors by surprise (including myself) since this large drop did not occur in the 2008 crisis.

The USD investment-grade bond ETF (LQD) did drop a lot during the GFC.

qcd07


It was trading at about $105 before the crisis. It dropped to $76 at its lowest point. That's a 27.6% drop. MBH is only -3.33% YTD, there is still a lot of room to drop if the crisis worsens.

Anyway, I buy both MBH and A35 (in 3:1 ratio) as I understand what I want from both. One (MBH) has higher long-term return, while the other (A35) is resilient against crisis. It is my own "total bond" mix, albeit heavier on the corp-bond side.

Just know what you are buying:
  • MBH: higher long-term return, but can take a hit during crisis.
  • A35: resilient against crisis, but lower return.
  • SSB: capital guaranteed, but does not appreciate in price (when interest rate drops) and it takes up to a month to liquidate.
 

celtosaxon

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The USD investment-grade bond ETF (LQD) did drop a lot during the GFC.

It was trading at about $105 before the crisis. It dropped to $76 at its lowest point. That's a 27.6% drop. MBH is only -3.33% YTD, there is still a lot of room to drop if the crisis worsens.

Anyway, I buy both MBH and A35 (in 3:1 ratio) as I understand what I want from both. One (MBH) has higher long-term return, while the other (A35) is resilient against crisis. It is my own "total bond" mix, albeit heavier on the corp-bond side.

Just know what you are buying:
  • MBH: higher long-term return, but can take a hit during crisis.
  • A35: resilient against crisis, but lower return.
  • SSB: capital guaranteed, but does not appreciate in price (when interest rate drops) and it takes up to a month to liquidate.

Agree, bond ETFs saw drops in 2008, but most did not see as much of a drop (relative to equities) in 2008 as this time around.

Some fund managers have recently defended this drop as simply a market function of price discovery, however, that doesn’t explain why they snapped back so much. In my mind, it’s simply added volatility caused by illiquidity, and that presents undesirable risk to investors seeking to dial back risk with bonds.

Sure, if you hold on, maybe you will be made whole eventually. But that is little comfort when you expected bonds to be a safety component during turbulent times.

Personally, I will take it as a lesson learned, greater diversity of fixed income instruments (beyond bond ETFs) is a must to tamp down volatility and preserve principle in a portfolio during periods of market stress.
 

wadan1868

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Hi all, has anyone used FSMOne ETF RSP to purchase ES3, MBH? Which one is better for trading SG etfs, FSMone, DBS vickets cash upfront or Standard charted? Given that I invest for long term and rarely sold?
 

Shiny Things

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Let's talk bond ETFs.

ST, I asked the other time but think you missed my question.

A35 or MBH etf for bonds?

Was using SSB but the downside for SSB is that withdrawal for rebalancing need to wait for 1 month (leading to overwithdrawal or underwithdrawal as the value change while waiting).

So here are the options I regularly get asked about:

1) MBH: This is my preferred option. It gives a higher return than government bonds, which more than compensates for the additional default risk. I use corporate bonds for my bond allocation myself.
2) SSBs: These are a good option too. The yield is lower than MBH, but in an environment of rising interest rates, they have a great little hidden feature: the price doesn't drop! If interest rates go up, you can redeem your SSBs and buy a new, higher-yielding series. The downside is that they take a month to redeem, and there's a cap on how much you can buy.
3) A35: A35 used to be the best option, but now SSBs and MBH exist, there are options that perform better over the long term (MBH) and have protection against drops in price (SSBs). You'd only use A35 if you a) want the absolute lowest-risk option and don't care about return, and b) have more to invest than SSBs will allow.
4) Funds denominated in USD or whatever: No. There's no point owning "stable" bonds when you add a huge lump of currency risk on top of that! For larger investors, maybe, because there are segments like junk bonds that aren't really accessible in SGD, but most investors should avoid foreign-currency bonds like the plague.

This is not just happening with MBH in Singapore, but also with bond ETFs listed elsewhere in the world. It has taken many investors by surprise (including myself) since this large drop did not occur in the 2008 crisis.

As I pointed out upthread (and so did hwckhs!), this did happen in 2008. LQD dipped 10-11% from its highs in August to its lows in October, but it was back at its highs (including dividends) by December.

That was a five-month drawdown. It didn't affect investors unless they panicked and sold at the lows.

The way I understand it, there has been an unprecedented level of bond selling recently, and this lack of demand has caused their rates to spike (normally, just the opposite should occur when interest rates are falling). As a consequence, bond ETF prices have fallen... in some cases, detaching widely from their net asset value.
[...]
Personally, I don’t mind high volatility with equities because the value of risk versus rewards is understood. However, I expect bonds to be less risky since they have less rewards to offer. This current experience shows that there are more risks with bonds “in ETF form” than there are in the underlying bond assets. This is because unlike holding an individual bond to maturity, an ETF is forced to sell at bad times when investors in the ETF are abandoning ship.

Please feel free to correct me if my understanding is wrong in any aspect.

OK, I'll be blunt. You're wrong in a few important respects, and your end conclusion is fundamentally wrong.

1) Bond ETFs are never "forced to sell bonds". That's how bond unit trusts work, because they have to pay redemptions in cash; but bond ETFs can (and often do) handle redemptions by handing over the underlying bonds. The ETF doesn't have to sell them.

2) Yes, bond ETFs have traded away from their underlying NAVs—in both directions. Sometimes, bond ETFs have traded below their NAVs, and sometimes they've traded above the NAVs.
The important thing is that this is temporary; when dealers regain their appetite to trade bonds against the ETFs, the discount/premium will compress back toward zero.

3) Owning bond ETFs is less risky than owning individual bonds, for two reasons: firstly, the bond ETF gives you access to a wide range of corporates in one purchase, and it reduces your risk if one company defaults on its bonds (anyone who bought the Hyflux perpetuals knows what I'm talking about). Secondly, bond ETFs are more liquid—easier to sell and buy—than the underlying bonds. Corporate bond spreads—the cost to buy or sell—have exploded wider in the last few weeks, if you can even find someone to show a bid on a bond you'll want to sell. But the ETFs are still actively traded, and you can buy and sell smaller amounts (there's no $250k minimum on MBH).

In short—this has been an out-of-the-ordinary, 2008-type event for corporate bonds, and for ETFs that own those corporate bonds. I'm not going to pretend it's not. But 2008 is the best analogy we have, and anyone who sat on their hands through 2008 was fine. (In fact, 2008 had some pretty great buying opportunities!)

Agree, bond ETFs saw drops in 2008, but most did not see as much of a drop (relative to equities) in 2008 as this time around.

Personally, I will take it as a lesson learned, greater diversity of fixed income instruments (beyond bond ETFs) is a must to tamp down volatility and preserve principle in a portfolio during periods of market stress.

Oh, I get you.

If you're trying to say that you want to own the underlying bonds instead of the ETF, because you think the bonds are less volatile than the ETF, you're in for a nasty shock. A lot of corporate bonds simply stopped trading in the last few weeks: you couldn't find anyone to buy them if you wanted to sell.

Bond ETFs never stopped trading; you were always able to sell and buy them.

How does the option assignment chooses which seller to assign upon? Randomly? Or is there some tracking going on the options you write, which the assignment is then dependant on wheher the end counterparty exercises the option.

This varies by country, but OCC (the Options Clearing Corporation, which handles this stuff for US equity options) assigns randomly between brokers; then the brokers choose how to assign it to their customers (typically randomly as well). Basically it's random.
I have always recommended you just keep cash in a high interest bank account, only to be rubbished by him and his loyal followers.

Purplestars, stop it. You came in here years ago arguing that high-interest bank accounts were better than bonds. You were wrong, and people in here pointed that out to you over and over again.

I engaged with you, and I actually found your arguments kind of persuasive; you persuaded me that high-interest accounts were a pretty good option for people's emergency funds, and I said as much at the time. I wasn't persuaded that high-interest accounts were a good alternative to bonds; I gave you good reasons, and I also said that at the time.

At that point, a normal person would say to themselves "OK, I wasn't able to persuade this person completely, I'll leave it alone. Maybe I'll start my own thread". But you started calling me names, and you kept coming in here over and over again to start the same fight.

You're trying to restart a fight from three years ago. Get over it.

It’s unfortunate that you have been suckered by this bad advice. Now watch me get infracted for calling this out and trying to save people like you from making this mistake.

No, Purplestars, you get infracted because you do nothing but start fights, and the board has a explicit rule against fighting. If you stopped being so obnoxious and argumentative you wouldn't get infracted so much. How have you not figured this out?
 
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unknownplayer

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I'm trying to build towards 100k on ib.. What would be a good bond etf for starters? Any on lse and Irish domiciled that will benefit from tax treaty for withholding taxes if any?

I'm still progressively buying into the dip.. Unrealised p&l is down by quite a bit already but need to persevere on. My own view is this could drag on and be much worse so war chest to be split over the next few months. To be honest I get tempted to put it to use when I see markets picking up (etc previous week)... Best to stick to predefined dates (risk of price moving up or down) or target price (risk of price going lower, or not being invested if price rebounds)

Still unsure of what to do but I think we're going to see more bad stuff the next couple of weeks
 

makav31i

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Hi all, has anyone used FSMOne ETF RSP to purchase ES3, MBH? Which one is better for trading SG etfs, FSMone, DBS vickets cash upfront or Standard charted? Given that I invest for long term and rarely sold?

I purchased ES3 using FSM ETF RSP since Feb this year and G3B on POSB Invest Saver for more than 5 years...

Which is better depend on the amount you spending and whether you are investing regularly like monthly...
 

flowerpalms

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Depends on what is your monthly investment.

Less than 1k: use POSB RSP and SCB
1k and above: use SCB and IB

Hi all, has anyone used FSMOne ETF RSP to purchase ES3, MBH? Which one is better for trading SG etfs, FSMone, DBS vickets cash upfront or Standard charted? Given that I invest for long term and rarely sold?
 

flowerpalms

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DCA every month, dont time the market

I'm trying to build towards 100k on ib.. What would be a good bond etf for starters? Any on lse and Irish domiciled that will benefit from tax treaty for withholding taxes if any?

I'm still progressively buying into the dip.. Unrealised p&l is down by quite a bit already but need to persevere on. My own view is this could drag on and be much worse so war chest to be split over the next few months. To be honest I get tempted to put it to use when I see markets picking up (etc previous week)... Best to stick to predefined dates (risk of price moving up or down) or target price (risk of price going lower, or not being invested if price rebounds)

Still unsure of what to do but I think we're going to see more bad stuff the next couple of weeks
 
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