2020 market expectations and positioning

[Thoreldan]

US markets went up so much last night but STI is down today. STI looks cheap but for some reason, is not performing. I would only buy REITs in Singapore, not the STI ETF.

Are reit etf worth looking into ? I also feel sti etf is meh

 

[coolhead]

I'm pretty overweight on US equities especially precious metals mining stocks. currently 50% cash and 50% stocks.

I'll liquidate 25% of stock portfolio if US index drops 5% and the same proportional liquidation till precious metals mining stocks is 10% of my portfolio.
Otherwise, i will hang on as market increases.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[gamerx]

Currently only 30% invested, hoping to double it this year.

Sticking with S-REITs mostly, with some small positions on cheap electronics stocks. Some positions in local banks as well to bet on wealth management trends.

Minimizing exposure to China because the full extent of the trade war and their corporate debt issue has yet to be realized.

Looking at taking up positions in the U.S market, but have yet to form a view.

 

[Mecisteus]

I'm pretty overweight on US equities especially precious metals mining stocks. currently 50% cash and 50% stocks.

I'll liquidate 25% of stock portfolio if US index drops 5% and the same proportional liquidation till precious metals mining stocks is 10% of my portfolio.
Otherwise, i will hang on as market increases.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

If drops another 5% or 10% or 20%?

You end up liquidating everything?

 

[coolhead]

If drops another 5% or 10% or 20%?

You end up liquidating everything?

I won't liquidate everything as I'll only have 10% precious metals stocks minimum. however, to reach this level, the US index will need to sell off about 15%. this is to protect my capital from a steep selloff.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[Mecisteus]

I won't liquidate everything as I'll only have 10% precious metals stocks minimum. however, to reach this level, the US index will need to sell off about 15%. this is to protect my capital from a steep selloff.

OK totally opposite of the conventional wisdom among long term investors.

Personally, I just sold little of QQQ today. I have been selling some shares for past 6 months.

 

[coolhead]

OK totally opposite of the conventional wisdom among long term investors.

Personally, I just sold little of QQQ today. I have been selling some shares for past 6 months.

by conventional wisdom, i take it that you mean buy and hold. In that case, I'll agree with you that is against the wisdom of long term investors.

I feel that in the case of market correction at this point, capital preservation is more important than potential capital growth. until then, I'll want to enjoy the capital growth with the repo liquidity as long as it happens, even though the market doesn't make sense with economic and corporate fundamental anymore.

The worst case scenario to me is the stock market drops 20% next week only to resume upwards 25% the week thereafter. Otherwise, I'll just go with the fed.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[revhappy]

by conventional wisdom, i take it that you mean buy and hold. In that case, I'll agree with you that is against the wisdom of long term investors.

I feel that in the case of market correction at this point, capital preservation is more important than potential capital growth. until then, I'll want to enjoy the capital growth with the repo liquidity as long as it happens, even though the market doesn't make sense with economic and corporate fundamental anymore.

The worst case scenario to me is the stock market drops 20% next week only to resume upwards 25% the week thereafter. Otherwise, I'll just go with the fed.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

The funny thing is the repo liquidity is not fueling allround bull market. Outside US valuations are still cheap. Even within US, it is very narrow few sectors and some bellwethers are going up. The S&P500 index is structured such that it just goes up with liquidity, due to the biggies in it have the biggest weight. But there are parts of the market like Energy that is very cheap. If there is global reflation trade these sectors should do well.

So I am now going to play sector ETFs, mostly by selling long term puts. My core portfolio I will keep in ES3, those puts will be sold against portfolio margin.

 

[highsulphur]

The funny thing is the repo liquidity is not fueling allround bull market. Outside US valuations are still cheap. Even within US, it is very narrow few sectors and some bellwethers are going up. The S&P500 index is structured such that it just goes up with liquidity, due to the biggies in it have the biggest weight. But there are parts of the market like Energy that is very cheap. If there is global reflation trade these sectors should do well.

So I am now going to play sector ETFs, mostly by selling long term puts. My core portfolio I will keep in ES3, those puts will be sold against portfolio margin.

You are selling puts? On IB?

 

[revhappy]

You are selling puts? On IB?

Selling puts, using Saxo.

 

[revhappy]

I am also allocating to Japan. Tokyo Olympics 2020 should give a boost to their economy. Valuations are cheap and as per history. Any country that hosted Olympics, it's stock market rose by the end of the year in which the country hosted the event.

 

[limster]

I am also allocating to Japan. Tokyo Olympics 2020 should give a boost to their economy. Valuations are cheap and as per history. Any country that hosted Olympics, it's stock market rose by the end of the year in which the country hosted the event.

2008 Beijing Olympics, there were some investors in investing forums that proudly proclaimed they were 'all-in' China because the Chinese Govt will never let the stock market collapse in an Olympics year.

 

[Mecisteus]

Last night, I continue to reduce my US stocks.

 

[revhappy]

Found this interesting detailed sectorwise report by Fidelity

https://research2.fidelity.com/fide...pdate_77_20200108&versiontag=2020010801155737

 

[revhappy]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/as...continue-to-outperform-in-2020-morgan-stanley

In the Singapore market, Morgan Stanley prefers developer stocks to real estate investment trusts (Reits).

This is because developer stock valuations remain below trend, even after last year's rally, while Reit valuations appear elevated, but should remain so amid low interest rates and a recovering economic outlook, said Morgan Stanley.

 

[SBC]

Believe till May 2020, stock market will be quite safe.

 

[NewInvestor]

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/as...continue-to-outperform-in-2020-morgan-stanley

Singapore properties should hit new highs in RCR and OCR in 2020.

 

[IronMac]

To be honest and don't take it personally but a lot of you guys are quite reactionary with your investment decisions. You all need to understand that time smooths everything out.

And for those not all in on equities, that is a huge mistake. Huge. Keeping cash to the tune of double digit percentages is ridiculous.

 

[highsulphur]

To be honest and don't take it personally but a lot of you guys are quite reactionary with your investment decisions. You all need to understand that time smooths everything out.

And for those not all in on equities, that is a huge mistake. Huge. Keeping cash to the tune of double digit percentages is ridiculous.

As long as one is comfortable with the risk and return of his investment profile.

Maybe I'm willing to take a lower return (with a higher cash %) for a greater peace of mind?

 

[MrHighlander]

When even bear dens forum evolves into market positioning, time to really go bearish lol