2020 market expectations and positioning

[coolhead]

snp futures -0.81%

still staying out.

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[Majestic12]

then you'll be prompted to buy 2 days ago...

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Friend, monthly chart, not the daily chart.

 

[Trader11]

Hindsight trading is always perfect.

I think the big boys are waiting for the dip buyers to come in and then drive prices even further below. Everyone is calling this officially a correction but I think it will morph into a bear market. This is still early stage selling.

Look at the redemptions of SPY ETF:

https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool

The FOMO crowd is getting hit. The DCA players would be next and their conviction would be challenged.

Those Fire dudes will run out of gunpowder and are directly helping big boys to escape.

DCA players have to ensure they don't lose their jobs.....

 

[Trader11]

ASSIS was rich because he bought stocks in 2009....Hope the next generation have opportunities to buy for cheap like in 2009

 

[havetheveryfun]

ASSIS was rich because he bought stocks in 2009....Hope the next generation have opportunities to buy for cheap like in 2009

provided they havent go to bedok reservoir yet

 

[DukeCS33]

Those Fire dudes will run out of gunpowder and are directly helping big boys to escape.

DCA players have to ensure they don't lose their jobs.....

Looks like 10y UST yields are heading lower and as long as it continues to head south, I would continue shorting.

 

[MrHighlander]

That’s why I am still avoiding US market and Europe

Still too overpriced

IWDA need to be below 50

Hindsight trading is always perfect.

I think the big boys are waiting for the dip buyers to come in and then drive prices even further below. Everyone is calling this officially a correction but I think it will morph into a bear market. This is still early stage selling.

Look at the redemptions of SPY ETF:

https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool

The FOMO crowd is getting hit. The DCA players would be next and their conviction would be challenged.

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[DukeCS33]

ASSIS was rich because he bought stocks in 2009....Hope the next generation have opportunities to buy for cheap like in 2009

Chance favours the brave. How many people will actually dare to buy as stocks come down? Most retail investors start buying when it dips 5%, 10% and when it heads even lower, they run out of cash. Look at investingnote forum and this thread - we have so many people rushing in to buy at the early stage. And it is not as if we did not have a precedent case prior... or most were too young when SARs happened. While not every crisis is the same, one needs to make certain adjustment owing to prevailing circumstances and factors. The other group of retail investors are stunned into inaction and while most expressed that they will buy at lower levels, most did not.... by the time they start buying, the market would have already run ahead and missing the buying at prior lower levels, they decide not to buy... and all the while as the market pulls further and further away.

 

[coolhead]

Friend, monthly chart, not the daily chart.

i see. thanks i learnt sth new.

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[revhappy]

In hindsight, the 3 rate cuts by the Fed, to save the stock markets in 2019 was totally unnecessary. They saved the markets against Trump's trade war, but now no ammunition left against a real crisis. There was no reason to take S&P 500 above 2500. If whole of 2019 it averaged 2500, nobody would have complained.

 

[MrHighlander]

Agreed. So far I have committed less than 5% of my investable cash

Chance favours the brave. How many people will actually dare to buy as stocks come down? Most retail investors start buying when it dips 5%, 10% and when it heads even lower, they run out of cash. Look at investingnote forum and this thread - we have so many people rushing in to buy at the early stage. And it is not as if we did not have a precedent case prior... or most were too young when SARs happened. While not every crisis is the same, one needs to make certain adjustment owing to prevailing circumstances and factors. The other group of retail investors are stunned into inaction and while most expressed that they will buy at lower levels, most did not.... by the time they start buying, the market would have already run ahead and missing the buying at prior lower levels, they decide not to buy... and all the while as the market pulls further and further away.

Posted from MaMaMia HardwareZone Forums app

 

[peacefulday]

Chance favours the brave. How many people will actually dare to buy as stocks come down? Most retail investors start buying when it dips 5%, 10% and when it heads even lower, they run out of cash. Look at investingnote forum and this thread - we have so many people rushing in to buy at the early stage. And it is not as if we did not have a precedent case prior... or most were too young when SARs happened. While not every crisis is the same, one needs to make certain adjustment owing to prevailing circumstances and factors. The other group of retail investors are stunned into inaction and while most expressed that they will buy at lower levels, most did not.... by the time they start buying, the market would have already run ahead and missing the buying at prior lower levels, they decide not to buy... and all the while as the market pulls further and further away.

truly. The local banks still defensing, that's the last gate to break sti-etf

 

[MrHighlander]

Although I must say that I fear that I miss this boat too ...

You never know when this will turn around

Agreed. So far I have committed less than 5% of my investable cash

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[coolhead]

am i thankful i sold ocbc at 10.88 a few days ago.
now snp futures -1.5%

All other US stocks sold except 3 gold miner position.
I'll probably sell 1 gold miner in full, the other partially and the last one with biggest position i will hold till earnings next tuesday.

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[DukeCS33]

In hindsight, the 3 rate cuts by the Fed, to save the stock markets in 2019 was totally unnecessary. They saved the markets against Trump's trade war, but now no ammunition left against a real crisis. There was no reason to take S&P 500 above 2500. If whole of 2019 it averaged 2500, nobody would have complained.

No one predicted that the world would be inflicted with the covid19. But I agree with you - there was no economic justification for rate cuts then - the US economy was humming along fine... and by inflating the asset markets, now we would have a heavier fall.

 

[coolhead]

Chance favours the brave. How many people will actually dare to buy as stocks come down? Most retail investors start buying when it dips 5%, 10% and when it heads even lower, they run out of cash. Look at investingnote forum and this thread - we have so many people rushing in to buy at the early stage. And it is not as if we did not have a precedent case prior... or most were too young when SARs happened. While not every crisis is the same, one needs to make certain adjustment owing to prevailing circumstances and factors. The other group of retail investors are stunned into inaction and while most expressed that they will buy at lower levels, most did not.... by the time they start buying, the market would have already run ahead and missing the buying at prior lower levels, they decide not to buy... and all the while as the market pulls further and further away.

agree.... in times like these, inaction is normal and expected. hope all of us take prompt action. important is to live and fight for another day.

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[ashethen]

really no bottom in sight. get ready for s&p at 2500.

 

[gamerx]

In hindsight, the 3 rate cuts by the Fed, to save the stock markets in 2019 was totally unnecessary. They saved the markets against Trump's trade war, but now no ammunition left against a real crisis. There was no reason to take S&P 500 above 2500. If whole of 2019 it averaged 2500, nobody would have complained.

Yes! I have been saying the same. Every major recession since the 90s has required a rate cut of 5-7%.

QE and feds guidances has only an effect equivalent of up to a 3% cut.

With the current interest rate, I think the feds' arsenal might not be enough to tackle the next recession.

 

[meatballmarinara]

Yes! I have been saying the same. Every major recession since the 90s has required a rate cut of 5-7%.

QE and feds guidances has only an effect equivalent of up to a 3% cut.

With the current interest rate, I think the feds' arsenal might not be enough to tackle the next recession.

what about negative rates

 

[chopra]

I have another 100k to allocate. If STI falls 5% more, I allocate 50k. If STI falls 10% more, I allocate another 50k. Then I am done.

im also allocating a high 6digit warchest. v excited.


darn. i didnt enter alot since 2014, luckily cash has been performing well in ocbc 360 etc since oct 2014.

11yr bull run. gosh.





just shot my first bullet of 20k yday. i will enter alot alot if correction is ard 65% of IWDA all time high