2020 market expectations and positioning

[revhappy]

Ironically, China worst affected by coronavirus, yet, Chinese equities havent really fallen much. Where US equities have got totally pummeled. It seems it is Xi's revenge to Trump for the trade war.

 

[Trader11]

Here is the math:
50% drawdown requires 100% to recover.
20% drawdown requires 25% to recover.
30% drawdown requires 43% to recover.
40% drawdown requires 67% to recover.

The key battle is to avoid too much drawdown in your portfolio.

Usually market requires two years to recover from 20% drawdown.

 

[gnoes85]

This is exactly like the 2018 December correction. It is funny the markets, just one week back, it looked invincible. Even in my wildest dreams I wouldnt have thought 3000 will be broken, leave alone 2900. Imagine those put sellers on margin. They must be getting totally wiped out.

This is worst. Breaking previous resistance like nothing, I expect to drop a lot more.

 

[Trader11]

Ironically, China worst affected by coronavirus, yet, Chinese equities havent really fallen much. Where US equities have got totally pummeled. It seems it is Xi's revenge to Trump for the trade war.

China got liquidity squad to make things don't look ugly. Just observe 2015-2016 crisis. HK is more real proxy of China reality.

 

[Trader11]

Here is the math:
50% drawdown requires 100% to recover.
20% drawdown requires 25% to recover.
30% drawdown requires 43% to recover.
40% drawdown requires 67% to recover.

The key battle is to avoid too much drawdown in your portfolio.

Usually market requires two years to recover from 20% drawdown.

Guys, watch out for the amount of drawdown. Make sure you don't overcommit capital yet

 

[MrHighlander]

Just bought ISF

A bit nervous but here goes to putting my money where my mouth is where there is extreme fear

Posted from MaMaMia HardwareZone Forums app

 

[yiron]

Guys, watch out for the amount of drawdown. Make sure you don't overcommit capital yet

IWDA needs to drop another 15% bef I deploy my first tranche. Not sure if it will get there though. In the meantime just continuing with DCA.

 

[Mecisteus]

There is nothing to like about falling markets, let's not kid ourselves. People who stay in cash will be gleeing at the opportunity to deploy. But if it goes below their purchase price, they will also not like it.

I don't want to but if ever the market is expected to fall by 50%, I prefer it to fall in 1 month than dragging for 18 months.

This is what I meant.

 

[highsulphur]

IWDA needs to drop another 15% bef I deploy my first tranche. Not sure if it will get there though. In the meantime just continuing with DCA.

So you have a reserve reserve? The dca is only from your income?

 

[Mecisteus]

Ouch even gold and mining stocks are battered.

 

[MrHighlander]

Queued for IWDA at 54.98

If it doesn’t reach I am good

Posted from MaMaMia HardwareZone Forums app

 

[yiron]

So you have a reserve reserve? The dca is only from your income?

Yup. Separate warchest.

 

[coolhead]

Ouch even gold and mining stocks are battered.

now I'm 100% cash hehe

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Wow many funds tio margin call liao!

This week feels like 2008 that time when banks almost kaput!

 

[SpeedingBullet]

Sold some OTM puts tonight. Finally premiums got attractive. ***** took 5 days of sell offs to get to that level..

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Ouch even gold and mining stocks are battered.

Many funds sold gold for cash to counter their stock losses.

 

[Mecisteus]

now I'm 100% cash hehe

Gold is too volatile and not a good long term hold.

Should move the capital into stocks slowly.

 

[Mecisteus]

Many funds sold gold for cash to counter their stock losses.

Yeah possible.

If got profits better take.

 

[yesimvested]

IWDA needs to drop another 15% bef I deploy my first tranche. Not sure if it will get there though. In the meantime just continuing with DCA.

curious to know... how much per tranche..and how many tranche did you spilt ur cash into?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Gold is too volatile and not a good long term hold.

Should move the capital into stocks slowly.

There is carry trade cost for longing gold. Gold is for FIFO.