2020 market expectations and positioning

[Mecisteus]

Just a few minutes before market is close.

Not bad. 5/6 of my recent purchases are already deep in the money.

 

[Kapish]

let's see how far the central banks infused rally will go
soon the coronavirus headlines will take over again

 

[NewInvestor]

Wow. Portfolio shot up by 5+% last night. That was a surprise.

 

[iantao99]

hmmm... the US mkt totally ignored the 5 new deaths and 24 new cases of Covid in the country...

Covid is definitely spreading in US...

Will tdy 5% jump be a dead cat bounce or the expected federal stimulus continue to power the recovery?

 

[Okenba]

hmmm... the US mkt totally ignored the 5 new deaths and 24 new cases of Covid in the country...

Covid is definitely spreading in US...

Will tdy 5% jump be a dead cat bounce or the expected federal stimulus continue to power the recovery?

US expecting the fed to develop vaccine.
Or maybe virus scared of low interest rates.

 

[Hello_Kitty]

I doubt the covid will be so fast resolve

 

[gamerx]

I do not think the G7 can effectively contain the virus spread but the market just wants to hear and react to good news today. I have opined that the demand and supply chain shock from the pandemic would rock things up but given the heavy selling last week and on climatic volume, most selling may have exhausted. I tested with a short as well but flipped over when the market turned.
At this point in time, I would just sway with the wind and trade the direction the market is telling me.

Yeah, I think so too. Rate cuts alone will not change the fundamentals.

Smells like a dead cat bounce.

 

[kage]

hmmm... the US mkt totally ignored the 5 new deaths and 24 new cases of Covid in the country...

Covid is definitely spreading in US...

Will tdy 5% jump be a dead cat bounce or the expected federal stimulus continue to power the recovery?

As long as i throw money into the market, of cos it will go up, but the root course is still active, bottomless pit

 

[Trader11]

Yeah, I think so too. Rate cuts alone will not change the fundamentals.

Smells like a dead cat bounce.

Markets and economics are two different things.....

 

[revhappy]

I guess, I will just continue to stay out of US markets forever. For US investors and most of developed market investors, the choice is between sub 1% bond returns vs equity returns at high valuations. Fed's mandate is financial stability, the corporate bond issuances had freezed up last few days. That is big alarm sign for the Fed, so they are not looking at equity markets directly, they are looking at the funding markets. They will do everything to ensure that the liquidity in the system is good.

Equity markets shooting up, is the side effect. But as investors, we have to think, what is the best case of remaining invested in US equities at these valuations, without earnings growth, where the competition is from very low bond or negative bond yields. So equities could give like 3% returns over next 10 years and that would be considered good for them.

I would prefer staying in Asian markets, which are kind of shunned off due to lack of interest and hence have a high dividend yield and low valuations.

 

[d9_lives]

I asked this before.
What about China ADR stocks?
Some are still below their peaks in 2018.
Why aren't you interested?

 

[DukeCS33]

I guess, I will just continue to stay out of US markets forever. For US investors and most of developed market investors, the choice is between sub 1% bond returns vs equity returns at high valuations. Fed's mandate is financial stability, the corporate bond issuances had freezed up last few days. That is big alarm sign for the Fed, so they are not looking at equity markets directly, they are looking at the funding markets. They will do everything to ensure that the liquidity in the system is good.

Equity markets shooting up, is the side effect. But as investors, we have to think, what is the best case of remaining invested in US equities at these valuations, without earnings growth, where the competition is from very low bond or negative bond yields. So equities could give like 3% returns over next 10 years and that would be considered good for them.

I would prefer staying in Asian markets, which are kind of shunned off due to lack of interest and hence have a high dividend yield and low valuations.

I do not see your rationale in staying in Asian markets. Asian markets are deemed emerging markets and as such should be a high growth play instead of a play on dividend yields.

Asian markets are export driven and when exports fall off, that's where we may see steep sell offs as corporate earnings may fall. So vesting in Asia means you are buying the growth story and not a div play.

 

[havetheveryfun]

hmmm... the US mkt totally ignored the 5 new deaths and 24 new cases of Covid in the country...

Covid is definitely spreading in US...

Will tdy 5% jump be a dead cat bounce or the expected federal stimulus continue to power the recovery?

China markets also ignored the covid illness. most of the prices still have not dropped lower than the worst during the trade war.

some may attribute it to the pumping of $ by the chinese govt, but that has already passed close to a month and it is still holding up well

 

[_dXter]

So I missed to buy US stocks at discount, as have not trade in TD ameritrade since 2018 and account became frozen.... Have to send a Customer Account Review form to TDA sg, got rejected athey insist signature signed was digital rather thank ink. Thus sent in a second time and still waiting for approval. Since they set up in Singapore, there are too many added processes. :'(

Well at least bought some DBS from vickers and dca into IWDA from ibkr.

 

[gamerx]

Markets and economics are two different things.....

Not my point...

 

[revhappy]

I asked this before.
What about China ADR stocks?
Some are still below their peaks in 2018.
Why aren't you interested?

I have exposure to China via my employer's pension fund. They aren't great funds, but I chose the Asia pacific fund. Right now, this is down 10% from its peak. I had some 60K USD in it. Ouch.

 

[Trader11]

I have exposure to China via my employer's pension fund. They aren't great funds, but I chose the Asia pacific fund. Right now, this is down 10% from its peak. I had some 60K USD in it. Ouch.

You work in China or HK banks?????

 

[revhappy]

I do not see your rationale in staying in Asian markets. Asian markets are deemed emerging markets and as such should be a high growth play instead of a play on dividend yields.

Asian markets are export driven and when exports fall off, that's where we may see steep sell offs as corporate earnings may fall. So vesting in Asia means you are buying the growth story and not a div play.

Singapore is dividend yield play. India is kind of internal consumption. Those are the 2 markets I have, other than the Asia pacific fund from my employer.

 

[revhappy]

You work in China or HK banks?????

I work for European bank. But most foreign banks in Singapore provide an equivalent to CPF for their non-singaporean non-pr employees, in the form of pension fund and those pension funds are managed in Hong Kong for some reason and not Singapore. My previous bank Credit Suisse also had a Hong Kong domiciled asset manager; HSBC managing our pension.

Standard chartered bank is the best. They pay the CPF contribution in cash directly as part of salary, for EP holders.

 

[Trader11]

I work for European bank. But most foreign banks in Singapore provide an equivalent to CPF for their non-singaporean non-pr employees, in the form of pension fund and those pension funds are managed in Hong Kong for some reason and not Singapore. My previous bank Credit Suisse also had a Hong Kong domiciled asset manager; HSBC managing our pension.

Standard chartered bank is the best. They pay the CPF contribution in cash directly as part of salary, for EP holders.

Nice!!!!! Good for you....