Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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Wishdom

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Hi Shiny Things and Bbc watcher, i want to dca or lump sum investment (Sgd 477k) into Iwda but i keep thinking i can time the market cant bear to see losses in unrealiz3d profit or keep thinking yhe market can go lower or im dcaing into usd to buy IWDA should i just accept no one knows when the low or high is and i should go in lump sum or slowly dca knowing in the long term 28-40 years it will be significantly higher

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I know you didn't ask me. But lump sum and come back again 40 years later.

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Visa4550

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I know you didn't ask me. But lump sum and come back again 40 years later.

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I dont mind as long as anyone can answer my question, but also you mean buy lump sum and come back again 40 years later? Cause you put but typo?

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Torenoo

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Nope. We would have a very significant part of our wealth in CPF already. With housing, with CPF, with SGD bonds, with STI??

Yikes sounds like sg over exposure. Let's hope Singapore won't end up like Japan!

that is the reason why i was asking ST earlier regarding my intention to go full in into IWDA, skipping STI (reason also being STI under perform and mkt activity keep dropping yoy) as in time to come my FRS at would be sizable snowballing @ 4 % risk-free for 20 yrs
 

Kaypohji

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How much are u guys budgeting to dca into iwda every month?

I feel like iwda is much more expensive than es3 so if one just put in a small amount every month, it wouldn’t get u far... the number of stocks u purchased r greatly smaller...

When stocks rise or fall, it is by a per share basis. The lesser u buy, the lesser u earn basically.

But if u use this money on es3, u can get far more stocks. And when the market move a dollar, u get $1 x more number of stocks u holding as it is cheaper u can buy more with the same capital compared to IWDA

Not sure anyone has the same thoughts as me ?
 

Torenoo

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No, Shiny Things is not saying that, or at least I hope he isn't.

Stocks are not currencies, period. They are stocks. Once you exchange Turkish lira to buy IWDA or ES3 -- you can! -- you don't have Turkish lira any more. You have shares of a stock index fund. That's the same principle whatever currency you start with. When you buy something that isn't money with money, you no longer have that money. IWDA isn't U.S. dollars, and ES3 isn't Singapore dollars. IWDA and ES3 have listing currencies, meaning that an exchange will quote a price in a particular currency, but practically everything has an instantaneous valuation in whatever currency you wish. You can get a Japanese yen quotation on a Pete Rose rookie baseball card if you wish, but that doesn't mean the baseball card is Japanese yen.

HOWEVER, ES3 (and G3B) are stock index funds that hold shares of Singapore Stock Exchange-listed companies. These 30 companies do a large amount of business in Singapore. (Not all, but a lot.) Consequently their business activities are correlated to that particular currency (Singapore dollars) to some greater extent than a global stock index fund would be. So ES3 and G3B are somewhat correlated to the Singapore dollar, but they are not Singapore dollars. They are not even MBH or A35, which are Singapore dollar denominated bond funds. MBH and A35 hold portfolios of bonds that promise to pay coupons and return principal solely in Singapore dollars. MBH and A35 are definitely highly correlated with the Singapore dollar.

Make sense?


No, not generally. One notable exception is death, when IB is handling the transfer of securities from a deceased account holder to legitimate heirs. There are lots of reasons for these restrictions, including tax, money laundering, and exchange agreements. If you want to transfer wealth more generally then you have to go through the bank system: sell X shares, withdraw the proceeds to a bank, and the transfer the dollars.

sorry just realized the english in my earlier reply is atrocious.


i would think fundamentally ST is coming from the angle that if one is likely to stay and incur bulk of living expenses in SG, being overly heavy into IWDA would also mean that the person would have to go through additional leg of usd/sgd fx exposure when unwinding, as compared to balancing it with some STI (SGD), which would bring down the exposure to "non-home" currency (USD)

* above edited*

yes i agree that stocks are not currencies (SGD or USD) technically,but the 2 ETFs we are buying (STI and IWDA) having listing currencies in SGD and USD respectively, there is 1 more FX risk for IWDA as compare to STI (assuming home currency is SGD which is for most of us here)

if I'm 100% into IWDA, I might be hit with lousy FX when I need funds and have to exit no matter what, eroding my IWDA gains

However if I have some allocations in ES3( SGD), it gives me an option to sell the ES instead and get SGD back to spend in SG. I would not be forced to take a FX hit as comparing to holding IWDA solely in the earlier case. That's the only reason i can think of to having ES3 in the portfolio, apart from growth of SG stocks (but underperforming, market activity keep dropping yoy , cannot attract listings)

But let say i project to have substantial emergency SGD savings in FD or liquid CPF (assuming old enough to withdraw) at point of retirement and dont foresee a need to sell IWDA holdings to fund lifestyle in the near term. Do i still need to allocate in ES3 in the accumulation phase?

hahah I'm sorry I know im deviation from the portfolio plan, looking for reasons to skip ES3 and go all aggressive in IWDA in the accumulation phase.

Just trying to tailor it a bit more to my circumstances and preference

And thank you BBC and hwckhs for your replies on the transfer of IB holdings to 3rd party. cheers!
 
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kingboonz

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How much are u guys budgeting to dca into iwda every month?

I feel like iwda is much more expensive than es3 so if one just put in a small amount every month, it wouldn’t get u far... the number of stocks u purchased r greatly smaller...

When stocks rise or fall, it is by a per share basis. The lesser u buy, the lesser u earn basically.

But if u use this money on es3, u can get far more stocks. And when the market move a dollar, u get $1 x more number of stocks u holding as it is cheaper u can buy more with the same capital compared to IWDA

Not sure anyone has the same thoughts as me ?

Percentages and market cap matter. Not stock price.

Stock prices are arbitrary measures.
 

BBCWatcher

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i would think fundamentally ST is coming from the angle that if one is likely to stay and incur bulk of living expenses in SG, being overly heavy into IWDA would also mean that the person would have to go through additional leg of usd/sgd fx exposure when unwinding, as compared to balancing it with some STI (SGD), which would bring down the exposure to "non-home" currency (USD)
* above edited*
NO, that's not correct. IWDA is not U.S. dollars. U.S. dollars are only the very brief (hyper brief) intermediate currency between liquidating IWDA and raising Singapore dollar proceeds. When you're holding IWDA, you're holding global stocks, period. Not any currency.

When you use your Singapore issued Visa credit card to buy a scarf in Switzerland, the scarf is not Swiss francs. But that particular seller wants (or at least highly prefers) Swiss francs in exchange for that scarf. (Buy a scarf in Korea and it's different. Even the same scarf.) So you plonk down your Visa card (hopefully a good one), the merchant runs it through the terminal, and the Visa network assigns Swiss francs to the merchant's account (a credit) and assigns a Singapore dollar debit to your account. In between, the Visa network converts Singapore dollars to U.S. dollars, then U.S. dollars to Swiss francs. On the major credit card networks U.S. dollars are always at least one of the currencies in the "loop" -- that's how it works.

Same thing with your IWDA sale, fundamentally. You're not holding U.S. dollars, but U.S. dollars are very briefly used as a transition currency to get your Singapore dollars. You sell IWDA, get some U.S. dollars, then immediately convert them at spot rate to Singapore dollars.

The key difference between IWDA and a scarf in Switzerland is that IWDA is (are) global stocks, a globally traded asset. There is no difference between IWDA purchased/sold from Singapore and IWDA purchased/sold from Botswana. It's all the same, and there is no currency "zone" for that asset. It's globally, electronically traded. So it absolutely doesn't matter that U.S. dollars are in the "loop." You'll never hold U.S. dollars more than a moment in that transaction, unless you want to. The U.S. dollars here are just like the U.S. dollars the Visa network uses: meaningless math in the middle, simply used because basically everything is convertible to/from U.S. dollars.

The real businesses that you're investing in do real business in U.S. dollars to a large extent. But also in Japanese yen, Omani rials, Turkish lira, euro, South African rand, and, yes, even Singapore dollars. It's a global stock fund.

To repeat, and it's very, very simple: the listing currency has NOTHING to do with the real value of the asset. The only way there's any relationship between the listing currency and the asset is when the asset itself has something to do with the currency. A U.S. Treasury bond fund, for example, is definitely highly U.S. dollar correlated because it's investing in U.S. dollar denominated bonds. A gold fund? Are those U.S. dollars, yen, euro, or Singapore dollars? No, it's gold. Gold is not any currency no matter what currency the gold fund is listed in.

ES3 and G3B aren't currencies either, but it's reasonable to assume that the 30 Straits Times Index stocks have, and will have, greater correlation(*) to the Singapore dollar specifically than any/every global stock fund. But that doesn't mean a global stock fund is a currency either. A global stock fund will be more correlated to "bigger" currencies (in relative shares) simply because it's global, but that's as far as it goes.

(*) Correlation isn't even remotely close to equivalence, as anyone who has been buying and holding ES3 or G3B over the past several years can tell you, as they look at the Singapore dollar quoted value of ES3/G3B fall well into the red while even their Singapore Savings Bonds are in the black. These too are shares in real businesses, and SGX market participants have really whacked stocks here lately, lately due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, other things being equal, I like lower prices for stocks when I'm buying them. Maybe long suffering STI investors who have accumulated and are accumulating ES3 or G3B will finally see some appreciation going forward. Maybe, who knows.
 
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Torenoo

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NO, that's not correct. IWDA is not U.S. dollars. U.S. dollars are only the very brief (hyper brief) intermediate currency between liquidating IWDA and raising Singapore dollar proceeds. When you're holding IWDA, you're holding global stocks, period. Not any currency.

When you use your Singapore issued Visa credit card to buy a scarf in Switzerland, the scarf is not Swiss francs. But that particular seller wants (or at least highly prefers) Swiss francs in exchange for that scarf. (Buy a scarf in Korea and it's different. Even the same scarf.) So you plonk down your Visa card (hopefully a good one), the merchant runs it through the terminal, and the Visa network assigns Swiss francs to the merchant's account (a credit) and assigns a Singapore dollar debit to your account. In between, the Visa network converts Singapore dollars to U.S. dollars, then U.S. dollars to Swiss francs. On the major credit card networks U.S. dollars are always at least one of the currencies in the "loop" -- that's how it works.

Same thing with your IWDA sale, fundamentally. You're not holding U.S. dollars, but U.S. dollars are very briefly used as a transition currency to get your Singapore dollars. You sell IWDA, get some U.S. dollars, then immediately convert them at spot rate to Singapore dollars.

The key difference between IWDA and a scarf in Switzerland is that IWDA is (are) global stocks, a globally traded asset. There is no difference between IWDA purchased/sold from Singapore and IWDA purchased/sold from Botswana. It's all the same, and there is no currency "zone" for that asset. It's globally, electronically traded. So it absolutely doesn't matter that U.S. dollars are in the "loop." You'll never hold U.S. dollars more than a moment in that transaction, unless you want to. The U.S. dollars here are just like the U.S. dollars the Visa network uses: meaningless math in the middle, simply used because basically everything is convertible to/from U.S. dollars.

The real businesses that you're investing in do real business in U.S. dollars to a large extent. But also in Japanese yen, Omani rials, Turkish lira, euro, South African rand, and, yes, even Singapore dollars. It's a global stock fund.

To repeat, and it's very, very simple: the listing currency has NOTHING to do with the real value of the asset. The only way there's any relationship between the listing currency and the asset is when the asset itself has something to do with the currency. A U.S. Treasury bond fund, for example, is definitely highly U.S. dollar correlated because it's investing in U.S. dollar denominated bonds. A gold fund? Are those U.S. dollars, yen, euro, or Singapore dollars? No, it's gold. Gold is not any currency no matter what currency the gold fund is listed in.

ES3 and G3B aren't currencies either, but it's reasonable to assume that the 30 Straits Times Index stocks have, and will have, greater correlation to the Singapore dollar specifically than any/every global stock fund. But that doesn't mean a global stock fund is a currency either. A global stock fund will be more correlated to "bigger" currencies (in relative shares) simply because it's global, but that's as far as it goes.

hi BBC, perhaps i not clear in my writing, i dont mean that holding those ETFs are equivalent to having exposures to those exact currencies in the same manner.

What i meant was, at the point of me exiting IWDA, I will be receiving USD from the sale, and if i die die need SGD now, no matter how brief, hyper brief, I would still be subjected to whatever the spot rate isnt it? (i talking abt this portion)
 

limster

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hi BBC, perhaps i not clear in my writing, i dont mean that holding those ETFs are equivalent to having exposures to those exact currencies in the same manner.

What i meant was, at the point of me exiting IWDA, I will be receiving USD from the sale, and if i die die need SGD now, no matter how brief, hyper brief, I would still be subjected to whatever the spot rate isnt it? (i talking abt this portion)

Are you saying that if iShares issued an ETF that had the same components as IWDA, but units are quoted in S$, you would be ok with that?
 

chrisloh65

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Think your explanation is confusing here.
Because IWDA has >50% of market value attributed to US stocks some of which are heavily US-domestic businesses based, and also IWDA stock holdings also have other non-US-listed stocks which derive businesses from US domestic market, which means that IWDA obviously is affected by US economy and USD!
Say your home currency is S$ and USD depreciates against S$ affecting those USD-related stocks which will not do well when US economy is poor and/or when US prints more money and USD depreciates and hence your IWDA market value in S$ will depreciate as well. :s8:

So, if you are negative about US economy, then you would not want to be investing in IWDA whose market value consists of >50% making up of US stocks!

NO, that's not correct. IWDA is not U.S. dollars. U.S. dollars are only the very brief (hyper brief) intermediate currency between liquidating IWDA and raising Singapore dollar proceeds. When you're holding IWDA, you're holding global stocks, period. Not any currency.

When you use your Singapore issued Visa credit card to buy a scarf in Switzerland, the scarf is not Swiss francs. But that particular seller wants (or at least highly prefers) Swiss francs in exchange for that scarf. (Buy a scarf in Korea and it's different. Even the same scarf.) So you plonk down your Visa card (hopefully a good one), the merchant runs it through the terminal, and the Visa network assigns Swiss francs to the merchant's account (a credit) and assigns a Singapore dollar debit to your account. In between, the Visa network converts Singapore dollars to U.S. dollars, then U.S. dollars to Swiss francs. On the major credit card networks U.S. dollars are always at least one of the currencies in the "loop" -- that's how it works.

Same thing with your IWDA sale, fundamentally. You're not holding U.S. dollars, but U.S. dollars are very briefly used as a transition currency to get your Singapore dollars. You sell IWDA, get some U.S. dollars, then immediately convert them at spot rate to Singapore dollars.

The key difference between IWDA and a scarf in Switzerland is that IWDA is (are) global stocks, a globally traded asset. There is no difference between IWDA purchased/sold from Singapore and IWDA purchased/sold from Botswana. It's all the same, and there is no currency "zone" for that asset. It's globally, electronically traded. So it absolutely doesn't matter that U.S. dollars are in the "loop." You'll never hold U.S. dollars more than a moment in that transaction, unless you want to. The U.S. dollars here are just like the U.S. dollars the Visa network uses: meaningless math in the middle, simply used because basically everything is convertible to/from U.S. dollars.

The real businesses that you're investing in do real business in U.S. dollars to a large extent. But also in Japanese yen, Omani rials, Turkish lira, euro, South African rand, and, yes, even Singapore dollars. It's a global stock fund.

To repeat, and it's very, very simple: the listing currency has NOTHING to do with the real value of the asset. The only way there's any relationship between the listing currency and the asset is when the asset itself has something to do with the currency. A U.S. Treasury bond fund, for example, is definitely highly U.S. dollar correlated because it's investing in U.S. dollar denominated bonds. A gold fund? Are those U.S. dollars, yen, euro, or Singapore dollars? No, it's gold. Gold is not any currency no matter what currency the gold fund is listed in.

ES3 and G3B aren't currencies either, but it's reasonable to assume that the 30 Straits Times Index stocks have, and will have, greater correlation(*) to the Singapore dollar specifically than any/every global stock fund. But that doesn't mean a global stock fund is a currency either. A global stock fund will be more correlated to "bigger" currencies (in relative shares) simply because it's global, but that's as far as it goes.

(*) Correlation isn't even remotely close to equivalence, as anyone who has been buying and holding ES3 or G3B over the past several years can tell you, as they look at the Singapore dollar quoted value of ES3/G3B fall well into the red while even their Singapore Savings Bonds are in the black. These too are shares in real businesses, and SGX market participants have really whacked stocks here lately, lately due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, other things being equal, I like lower prices for stocks when I'm buying them. Maybe long suffering STI investors who have accumulated and are accumulating ES3 or G3B will finally see some appreciation going forward. Maybe, who knows.
 
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Torenoo

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Are you saying that if iShares issued an ETF that had the same components as IWDA, but units are quoted in S$, you would be ok with that?

No, i dont know why would you say that. Even if the ETF is quoted and listed in SGD,bulk of revenue of the component entities are not in SGD, its still a currency mismatch.
 

jhyeo_

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Please let me show a simple visualization of what BBC is trying to explain. BBC or anyone please add in or correct me if wrong.

Assumptions:
IWDA remains flat i.e. no growth for whole of 2020
USD weakens, SGD remains constant

1 Jan 2020
USDSGD @ 1.35
I buy US$1000 IWDA = S$1350

31 Dec 2020
USD weakened by 10%
USDSGD will be 1.227
IWDA price will be US$1100
I sell and convert to SGD = $1350

On the first hand, it may seemed like we suffered 10% lost in SGD value due to USD weakening against SGD.
But in reality it is not the case.

This is just a simple example to understand the theory of parity. Perhaps in reality there are too many variables to have a 100% explanation.

hi BBC, perhaps i not clear in my writing, i dont mean that holding those ETFs are equivalent to having exposures to those exact currencies in the same manner.

What i meant was, at the point of me exiting IWDA, I will be receiving USD from the sale, and if i die die need SGD now, no matter how brief, hyper brief, I would still be subjected to whatever the spot rate isnt it? (i talking abt this portion)
 

chrisloh65

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Don't understand your illustration.

If USD weakens by 10% against SGD and if IWDA price remains the same in USD, how can the amount you get back not be 10% less?
I suppose you assume IWDA price went up by 10% in your illustration? If so, why? There is no reason for that to happen.

Please let me show a simple visualization of what BBC is trying to explain. BBC or anyone please add in or correct me if wrong.

Assumptions:
IWDA remains flat i.e. no growth for whole of 2020
USD weakens, SGD remains constant

1 Jan 2020
USDSGD @ 1.35
I buy US$1000 IWDA = S$1350

31 Dec 2020
USD weakened by 10%
USDSGD will be 1.227
IWDA price will be US$1100
I sell and convert to SGD = $1350

On the first hand, it may seemed like we suffered 10% lost in SGD value due to USD weakening against SGD.
But in reality it is not the case.

This is just a simple example to understand the theory of parity. Perhaps in reality there are too many variables to have a 100% explanation.


 

jhyeo_

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You can consider IWDA like any other assets one is owning.

Theoretically you should not mind what currency you receive for selling as long as it is equivalent to your expectation (excluding transaction costs).

For example in my illustration, you want to sell your car on 1 jan 2020 for S$13,500. So it should be fine for you to receive US$10,000 too.

Comes 31 dec 2020, USD weakened by 10%. Your quotation for the car should be US$11,000 in order to meet your expectation of $13,500.

Your car value did not appreciate but due to currency fluctuation, the price should change too.

Don't understand your illustration.

If USD weakens by 10% against SGD and if IWDA price remains the same in USD, how can the amount you get back not be 10% less?
I suppose you assume IWDA price went up by 10% in your illustration? If so, why? There is no reason for that to happen.
 

chrisloh65

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Unfortunately you are wrong with your illustration.

When USD depreciates, it usually means US economy is not doing well and US is printing lots of money.
When US economy is not doing well, the fact that IWDA owns substantial number of stocks with significant exposure to US domestic market means that these stocks' prices will drop when US economy is poor, hence IWDA price in USD will also drop.

So, you end up with double whammy where IWDA price will drop and USD depreciates against SGD and you get very much less in SGD after selling your IWDA.

You can consider IWDA like any other assets one is owning.

Theoretically you should not mind what currency you receive for selling as long as it is equivalent to your expectation (excluding transaction costs).

For example in my illustration, you want to sell your car on 1 jan 2020 for S$13,500. So it should be fine for you to receive US$10,000 too.

Comes 31 dec 2020, USD weakened by 10%. Your quotation for the car should be US$11,000 in order to meet your expectation of $13,500.

Your car value did not appreciate but due to currency fluctuation, the price should change too.


 

BBCWatcher

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Global stock funds are not currencies, but they have some correlation to currencies (plural). For example, if the euro moves in a certain direction, and if that movement has a clear effect in some direction on the real businesses that do business in and with the Eurozone, then that could affect the value of the global stock index fund.

However, there are many, many other happenings that have significant effects on a global stock index fund.

It just so happens the iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF, otherwise known by its primary trading symbol "IWDA," is also available in the following currencies: euro, British pounds, and Mexican pesos. So if you buy IWDA (same symbol) on the Mexican stock exchange using Mexican pesos, are you operating under a different currency risk? Of course not. The listing currency is incidental, obviously. You're buying a global stock fund, and the stock values will do whatever they do for myriad reasons, with movements of currencies being one of the least interesting contributors to overall business outcomes in the context of a global stock fund. Indeed, because it's a global fund there's a tremendous amount of diversification across currencies, because these 1,600+ businesses do business around the world.
 

jhyeo_

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I got your point, however i was just trying to clarify to Torenoo about his point on the spot rate exchange when selling IWDA using a simple illustration. Perhaps it wasn’t on point.

No doubt when we buy IWDA we will get exposed to all other global economies and their currencies which will affect the underlying price of IWDA and the value to us in SGD terms.

I’m not too sure about the double whammy part though, hope it is not duplicating the explanation of the effects.

Unfortunately you are wrong with your illustration.

When USD depreciates, it usually means US economy is not doing well and US is printing lots of money.
When US economy is not doing well, the fact that IWDA owns substantial number of stocks with significant exposure to US domestic market means that these stocks' prices will drop when US economy is poor, hence IWDA price in USD will also drop.

So, you end up with double whammy where IWDA price will drop and USD depreciates against SGD and you get very much less in SGD after selling your IWDA.
 

chrisloh65

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No, you are wrong, there is big impact which you have missed badly indeed!

For example, assuming IWDA only contains 1% of Singapore stocks, and global economy tanked and IWDA price crashed. However, SGD appreciated against all other currencies (in order to hedge against inflation, as has happened before since Singapore manages exchange rate to hedge inflation), and you need to spend in SGD when living in Singapore so you sell your IWDA, then you would have realized huge losses in SGD term! :eek:


Global stock funds are not currencies, but they have some correlation to currencies (plural). For example, if the euro moves in a certain direction, and if that movement has a clear effect in some direction on the real businesses that do business in and with the Eurozone, then that could affect the value of the global stock index fund.

However, there are many, many other happenings that have significant effects on a global stock index fund.

It just so happens the iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF, otherwise known by its primary trading symbol "IWDA," is also available in the following currencies: euro, British pounds, and Mexican pesos. So if you buy IWDA (same symbol) on the Mexican stock exchange using Mexican pesos, are you operating under a different currency risk? Of course not. The listing currency is incidental, obviously. You're buying a global stock fund, and the stock values will do whatever they do for myriad reasons, with movements of currencies being one of the least interesting contributors to overall business outcomes in the context of a global stock fund. Indeed, because it's a global fund there's a tremendous amount of diversification across currencies, because these 1,600+ businesses do business around the world.
 

Mecisteus

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that is the reason why i was asking ST earlier regarding my intention to go full in into IWDA, skipping STI (reason also being STI under perform and mkt activity keep dropping yoy) as in time to come my FRS at would be sizable snowballing @ 4 % risk-free for 20 yrs

You don't need to lean to the extreme sides. ie zero or 100% into STI or IWDA.

Pick an allocation somewhere that is not zero or 100%.

STI could be underperforming for now. But it cannot remain underperforming forever.

Look at Nikkei as an example. It went up nearly 3x from 2011 to early 2020.
 

3sniper

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If I have a portfolio of stocks denomoninated in various currencies like USD, GBP, EUR, JPY, HKD, MYR are there any applications free or paid which enable one to track its performance in a base currency e.g SGD and an indexed chart showing the relative performance of its components expressed in SGD over different time frames (as currencies fluctuate all the time). Now I am using yahoo finance for both but am not sure if it converts to a base currency in order to paint an accurate picture of a portfolio performance over time.
 
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