Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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Shiny Things

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Singapore doesn’t really have retail money market funds as such, not like U.S. money market funds anyway. With only slight exaggeration (maybe not even that), they seem to be mislabeled bond funds.

Yeah, this is a good catch—I didn’t even think about this.

The Endowus CashSmart thing is actually none of the above—it’s a wrapper product that wraps around three funds: one cash fund, that only buys SGD FDs; one “enhanced liquidity fund”, which buys SGD FDs and also bonds, targeting a 1yr average duration; and a short-term bond fund.

And when you realize that, you realize that the marketing is kind of deceptive.

The “up to 2.2% yield!” advertised on the CashSmart page would only happen if your money was fully invested in the short-term bond fund - which means you’re taking the same credit risk and duration risk as the short-term bond fund, both of which are small compared to an equity fund, but not small compared to leaving the cash in the bank, which is what you might incorrectly think you’re doing.

—-

In the USA, a “money market fund” is very short-term, extremely liquid, extremely safe, cash and cash-like things. A good example is JPM’s Prime Money Market Fund, which runs about 75 billion dollars on any given day.

The weighted average life of the portfolio is about two months, and the yield (in the institutional share class, which has a $10m minimum) is 0.39%. And a third of the fund is in “daily liquid assets”—which means either cash, or things like repos where the fund is guaranteed to get its cash within one day. So if there was a run on the fund, they’d be able to handle more than a third of the fund walking out the door in a single day (which is better than any bank, incidentally).

Stack that up against the Lion Global SGD Enhanced Liquidity fund, which calls itself a money-market fund. Its weighted average life is about eight months; and its YTM is about 2%. There are two things there:
1) Yield doesn’t come for free. The price of that yield is that the bonds in the fund have an average credit rating of single-A; you’re taking default risk.
2) The fund is less liquid than a US money-market fund would be. I suspect if a third of the LionGlobal fund walked out the door in a single day they’d start to have problems selling their holdings.

The closest thing to a traditional MMF within the CashSmart wrapper is the Fullerton SGD cash fund, which invests entirely in SGD FDs, and yields a lot less than 1%.

——

Anyway, the moral of this story is not that the LionGlobal fund is bad. Personally I’m totally comfortable taking short-term credit risk; a short-term IG bond fund is a fine cash management tool if you have a bit of extra risk appetite, and IG bond spreads are wide enough to more than adequately compensate for the default risk. But BBCW is right: if you buy the LionGlobal fund because the “money market fund” name makes you think it’s as good as cash, you might be in for an awkward surprise next time SGD funding markets get a bit hairy.
 

w1rbelw1nd

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Yeah, this is a good catch—I didn’t even think about this.

The Endowus CashSmart thing is actually none of the above—it’s a wrapper product that wraps around three funds: one cash fund, that only buys SGD FDs; one “enhanced liquidity fund”, which buys SGD FDs and also bonds, targeting a 1yr average duration; and a short-term bond fund.

And when you realize that, you realize that the marketing is kind of deceptive.

The “up to 2.2% yield!” advertised on the CashSmart page would only happen if your money was fully invested in the short-term bond fund - which means you’re taking the same credit risk and duration risk as the short-term bond fund, both of which are small compared to an equity fund, but not small compared to leaving the cash in the bank, which is what you might incorrectly think you’re doing.

—-

In the USA, a “money market fund” is very short-term, extremely liquid, extremely safe, cash and cash-like things. A good example is JPM’s Prime Money Market Fund, which runs about 75 billion dollars on any given day.

The weighted average life of the portfolio is about two months, and the yield (in the institutional share class, which has a $10m minimum) is 0.39%. And a third of the fund is in “daily liquid assets”—which means either cash, or things like repos where the fund is guaranteed to get its cash within one day. So if there was a run on the fund, they’d be able to handle more than a third of the fund walking out the door in a single day (which is better than any bank, incidentally).

Stack that up against the Lion Global SGD Enhanced Liquidity fund, which calls itself a money-market fund. Its weighted average life is about eight months; and its YTM is about 2%. There are two things there:
1) Yield doesn’t come for free. The price of that yield is that the bonds in the fund have an average credit rating of single-A; you’re taking default risk.
2) The fund is less liquid than a US money-market fund would be. I suspect if a third of the LionGlobal fund walked out the door in a single day they’d start to have problems selling their holdings.

The closest thing to a traditional MMF within the CashSmart wrapper is the Fullerton SGD cash fund, which invests entirely in SGD FDs, and yields a lot less than 1%.

——

Anyway, the moral of this story is not that the LionGlobal fund is bad. Personally I’m totally comfortable taking short-term credit risk; a short-term IG bond fund is a fine cash management tool if you have a bit of extra risk appetite, and IG bond spreads are wide enough to more than adequately compensate for the default risk. But BBCW is right: if you buy the LionGlobal fund because the “money market fund” name makes you think it’s as good as cash, you might be in for an awkward surprise next time SGD funding markets get a bit hairy.

Singapore is a small market, so we will never have a luxury of decent choice imo, like the US or even Europe/HK/Australia.

Thats the case for our home equity index.

Thats the case for local SGD denominated bond ETFs.

Thats the case for money market funds.

Its not like we cannot structure a good enough option for ourselves - but we got to be financially literate enough to read between the lines, and to understand the trade-offs.
 

iceblendedchoc

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Interesting article:

https://blog.seedly.sg/how-temasek-holdings-invests/

From S$354 Million to S$313 Billion: 5 Lessons From How Temasek Invests

Over the years, Temasek has diversified its portfolio, moving from investing in Singapore to investing all around the world.

Today 60% of its portfolio goes to developed economies while the other 40% goes to growth regions.

Breaking it down further:

26% of Temasek’s portfolio is invested in Singapore
26% in China,
15% in North America
10% in Europe.

This gives you an idea of where they invest.


Looks like Temasek is using similar strategy like me, over-weight China and under-weight USA (and hence also under-weight USD)!

And strangely, Shiny Things and the lurker rantasaurus and all those that supported Shiny Things to smear me and trying to destroy my reputation and had claimed Shiny Things is right about all the bad claims about China are all unable to provide facts and evidence to support his claims!

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/128070357-post2371.html

If investing in China is so bad (as Shiny Things claimed), why Temasek invested 26% of its total portfolio in China? Is Shiny Things a professional investor or Temasek? The answer is obvious! :s13:
Jialat! You follow Temasek Ho jinx
Temasek buy high sell Low you got follow ?
 

streetfighter

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I would be appreciate very much if ST can back up his claims about China, unless he really has nothing to back up? If that is the case then he should say so, otherwise he is misleading his large number of followers here with his fake claims by refusing to retract his false statements.

Interesting article:

https://blog.seedly.sg/how-temasek-holdings-invests/

From S$354 Million to S$313 Billion: 5 Lessons From How Temasek Invests

Over the years, Temasek has diversified its portfolio, moving from investing in Singapore to investing all around the world.

Today 60% of its portfolio goes to developed economies while the other 40% goes to growth regions.

Breaking it down further:

26% of Temasek’s portfolio is invested in Singapore
26% in China,
15% in North America
10% in Europe.

This gives you an idea of where they invest.


Looks like Temasek is using similar strategy like me, over-weight China and under-weight USA (and hence also under-weight USD)!

And strangely, Shiny Things and the lurker rantasaurus and all those that supported Shiny Things to smear me and trying to destroy my reputation and had claimed Shiny Things is right about all the bad claims about China are all unable to provide facts and evidence to support his claims!

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/128070357-post2371.html

If investing in China is so bad (as Shiny Things claimed), why Temasek invested 26% of its total portfolio in China? Is Shiny Things a professional investor or Temasek? The answer is obvious! :s13:
 

rantasaurus

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A good practice (and habit) for retail investors would be to take a look at the materials available to help inform your decision before jumping right straight into the product.

Given how low cash rates are right now, an expected yield of 1.9% to 2.2% for a "cash" product initially caught my eye as well. I've extracted from Endowus' website the factsheet for UOB AM United SGD Fund that makes up 50% of the Enhanced Cash Smart product, and noted that the credit risks embedded in the fund is higher than what I had expected:
- Weighted average YTM of 4.16%, implying quite a large credit spread to compensate you for bearing credit risks. A quick google search of the fund's top 5 holdings (15% of NAV) would reveal some attributes: emerging market corporates, mostly BBB-rated, most of them have mature 2-3 years later
- The investments in the fund have a weighted average maturity of 1.61 year, so you are also getting some compensation due to term premium

So overall, you shouldn't go to bed thinking that this is a risk-free "cash" product. There will definitely be some volatility every now and then as credit exposure can default or get downgraded, and you must be willing to bear these risks in exchange for an expected return that is much greater than cash rates right now

Hmm, if there is any admin who can help to shift the post over, that would be really helpful! (Not sure if I can do so on my own, and I don't want to double post in the other thread as well).

Anyway, the reason why I'm trying to understand about MMFs better and their possible offerings is because it's a fairl new concept for me - only heard about them recently through this Endowus product. Thought it would be interesting to hear about what others think about such products, as they're not so widely known / popular amongst Singapore investors.

I agree that holding too much cash, with no intention of using them for the short-term, is a drag to portfolio performance returns. And that these funds would be more efficiently allocated into a sensible portfolio of stocks bonds.

I know this haven't been discussed much, but I believe most of us will be drawing such funds from some form of savings account or instrument where we park our short-term, liquid cash. So, I'm exploring whether is there a place for MMFs as part of our financial framework? Or perhaps, maybe it's not worth the effort to take a closer look into them?

Sent from Samsung SM-G935F using GAGT
 

swan02

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What Shiny postulated of the negatives of China r readily available on the web. I know cause I’ve read about them many times.

However, I’m also in the believe that the negatives of those postulation along with additional risk premium for eg assumed questionable reporting standards are already factored into the share price.

Temasek overweighting Asia does not mean they are right. The S&P 500 index is the only index that sometimes sits on or close to the efficient frontier. NO other index comes close and that’s why it’s damn difficult to beat it over long term. .........the whole idea of modern portfolio theory revolves around getting the best bang of your buck for every level of risk thus improving your chances against for eg China that sits at an extreme end of the curve....... and benefitting from the only free cake called diversification.

high risk, high POTENTIAL returns aka China and many emerging markets that is way off the curve does not suit many retail investors in this forum. You can tell that when we spend much time in bonds and cash risk free discussion. We are not extreme risk takers.

and looking at Temasek asset allocation current and past based solely into public securities, unlikely to have beaten Shinys or BBC or a pure world index including eimi. Let’s not bring up private equity placements and other avenues not open to retail investors.

GIC the last i saw performance approx 1.5 years back underperformed it’s benchmark.

Really I have no confidence in market timers no matter how highly paid they are unless they r the top 10 percent ...maybe even that is optimistic. I’m always skeptical when any famous investor makes an assertion ...he or she is unlikely independent...they r not as altruistic neither stupid to give out freebies to their detriment.

Back in 2017, I started to overweight Asia barking the same expensive usd dollar n USA equities overvaluation..boy I was wrong.

 
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chrisloh65

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Yes, you read those claims on the web, but similarly they are just the false claims perpetuated by some group of people (especially the Western media) without any facts and evidence to back up, and those are the ones that Shiny Things are just repeating them like parrot here. (Oh, forgot that may be Shing Things is another ang mo trying to help to perpetuate those Western media's propaganda?)

Shiny Things previously claimed that he is concerned that people will read and learn the wrong things in this forum. But yet when it comes to wrong things he posted, he seems to be totally not concerned at all that those false claims he posted here are misleading people here and he refused to retract those false claims even when he has nothing to backup these claims he posted here! :s8:

It is very easy to expose why all those are false claims regarding negativity about China posted by Shing Things here:

(1) Shiny Things claimed that Chinese banks have GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans!
This can easily be exposed to be false claim because where is the evidence? Please point to the Chinese bank financial statements, etc. ICBC, and show us where is the GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans?
Well, fact is, he can't provide any evidence to back up his claim, so this false claim has been exposed!

(2) Shiny Things claimed that Chinese tech companies are "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings" that should be avoided!
But yet why he didn't warn all of us here that many of the USA tech companies are now "trading at a monstrously expensive multiple of earnings" (worst than those titanically expensive Chinese tech stocks) when he advocated others here to continue to buy IWDA, consisting of >65% US stocks (including those "mostrously expensive" US tech stocks)? Why he never advocate people to avoid over-priced tech companies that are heavily represented in IWDA?
So this false claim (or his hypocrisy/double standard) has been exposed!

(3) Shiny things claimed that Chinese property companies are having Ponzi scheme!
What ponzi scheme and where are the facts and evidence?
Again, no facts and evidence to back up such claim!

(4) Shiny Things claimed that "China is going to emerge!" has been trapping people in an underperforming market for decades!
However, from what I can see, comparing VWRD etf (that Shing Things recommended) and 2822.HK China etf since 2012 (near their inception), 2822.HK has beaten VWRD handily since 2012! Wow! so much for underperforming market but beating VWRD (that Shing Things recommended) handily hands down!
Again, this false claim (or hypocrisy/double standard) has been exposed!

chrisloh65 said:
Shiny Things,
Why don't you do yourself a favor and backup your below claims here?

Shiny Things said:
Firstly, are you sure you want to do this? When you buy a China ETF instead of a global ETF, you're betting that the Chinese stock market will outperform the MSCI World. For that to happen, one of three things has to happen:

* Chinese banks manage to work themselves out from under their GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans; or,
* Chinese tech companies go from "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings" to "trading at a truly monstrously expensive multiple of earnings"; or,
* Chinese property companies manage to keep the Ponzi going. I have a few acquaintances who look at this stuff and none of them can figure out how the Chinese property sector hasn't imploded yet.

................
"China is going to emerge!" has been trapping people in an underperforming market for decades.

Could you please provide facts to back up your claims that:

(1) You claimed that Chinese banks have GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans!
Where is the evidence? Please point to the Chinese bank financial statements, etc. ICBC, and show us where is the GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans?

(2) You claimed that Chinese tech companies are "trading at a titanically expensive multiple of earnings" that should be avoided!
But yet why you didn't warn all of us here that many of the USA tech companies are now "trading at a monstrously expensive multiple of earnings" (worst than those titanically expensive Chinese tech stocks) when you advocated others here to continue to buy IWDA, consisting of >65% US stocks (including those "mostrously expensive" US tech stocks)?

(3) You claimed that Chinese property companies are having Ponzi scheme!
What ponzi scheme and where are the facts and evidence?

(4) You claimed that "China is going to emerge!" has been trapping people in an underperforming market for decades!
Please back up your claim.
From what I can see, comparing VWRD etf (that you recommended) and 2822.HK China etf since 2012 (near their inception), 2822.HK has beaten VWRD handily since 2012! Wow! so much for underperforming market but beating VWRD (that you recommended) handily hands down!

And strangely, why you don't want to tell us that USD and US T-bills is the biggest ponzi scheme of all time in history?!
US Gov clearly has no ability to pay off all the T-bills without printing more USD like toilet papers!

And another ponzi scheme is to "DCA blindly into index ETFs regardless of market conditions" so that the earlier adopters will retire early very rich by persuading the latter comers to keep pushing up the price, very much like those MLM scheme! :eek:

Now, if you can't provide facts to backup your above claims, that brings into question whether you Shiny Things are purposely spreading lies here or you are really so ignorant and making those false claims in your post?


What Shiny postulated of the negatives of China r readily available on the web. I know cause I’ve read about them many times.

However, I’m also in the believe that the negatives of those postulation along with additional risk premium for eg assumed questionable reporting standards are already factored into the share price.

Temasek overweighting Asia does not mean they are right. The S&P 500 index is the only index that sometimes sits on or close to the efficient frontier. NO other index comes close and that’s why it’s damn difficult to beat it over long term. .........the whole idea of modern portfolio theory revolves around getting the best bang of your buck for every level of risk thus improving your chances against for eg China that sits at an extreme end of the curve....... and benefitting from the only free cake called diversification.

high risk, high POTENTIAL returns aka China and many emerging markets that is way off the curve does not suit many retail investors in this forum. You can tell that when we spend much time in bonds and cash risk free discussion. We are not extreme risk takers.

and looking at Temasek asset allocation current and past based solely into public securities, unlikely to have beaten Shinys or BBC or a pure world index including eimi. Let’s not bring up private equity placements and other avenues not open to retail investors.

GIC the last i saw performance approx 1.5 years back underperformed it’s benchmark.

Really I have no confidence in market timers no matter how highly paid they are unless they r the top 10 percent ...maybe even that is optimistic. I’m always skeptical when any famous investor makes an assertion ...he or she is unlikely independent...they r not as altruistic neither stupid to give out freebies to their detriment.

Back in 2017, I started to overweight Asia barking the same expensive usd dollar n USA equities overvaluation..boy I was wrong.
 

psyfy

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Index ETF itself is not ponzi scheme, it is just an investment instrument.

Keep advocating other people to "DCA blindly into index ETFs over long term regardless of market conditions", this strategy itself is a ponzi scheme!

This is why those advocaters are so scare of people critizing such scheme! This strategy will only work if more and more people believe in it and keep buying and buying with whatever spare cash they can invest over the long term in the hope that these people will help to keep pushing up those few index ETFs higher and higher without selling, because once sufficient people start selling, the index ETF price will fall instead of go up. Furthermore, many of these indices pegged by such index ETF are market-cap weighted, so the higher price those large cap stocks go up, the higher their weightage, thus continuing the vicious cycle of pushing up the price of these few index ETFs. So the more the index ETF price go up, the more they are able to convince more people to adopt such ponzi scheme to push the price further up.

You must also understand human emotions and sentiments (or behavioral economics). If the index ETF price won't fall but keep going up or recover very quickly even during recession, it gives more people the false pretext that it is safe to keep throwing money buying index ETFs even when they are over-priced (because there will always be greater fools helping to push the price even higher! That is why must convince all of you must keep buying and buying regardless of stock market conditions, even when stock market and index ETF price is already terribly over-priced!).

The ultimate winners are the early adopters of such ponzi scheme, much like those MLM scheme, where early adopters will cash out first and much earlier and retire rich, while leaving the late adopters to be buying over-priced and even more over-priced index ETFs (if few people are selling but more and more people are buying), thus resulting in diminishing return over the long-term, but late adopters won't know until it is too late because the early adopters keep telling them to look at past 20-30 years and their (the early adopters') returns are so high (yes, because it started from a low base when the early adopters started with low index ETF price and started buying index ETF when doing so is not in vogue yet right?!).

So now you understand why those people strongly advocating "DCA blindly into index ETFs over long term regardless of market conditions" is trying to sell you a ponzi scheme (a vicious self-fulfilling prophecy) and they are adamant to silent critics like me who exposed the "ponzi" part of such scheme?!

A) In a ponzi scheme you are buying a make believe product and hoping a greater fool will come in to prop the price and the scheme. It'll eventually collapse because there is nothing underpinning it.

B) In stocks people buy when they see value for example and sell when they think otherwise. Same thing can be done for ETFs. For simplicty sake, one is a single stock and the other one is an amalgamation of a number of stocks. Not that many differences.

C) If ETFs are a ponzi scheme than what are unit trusts and funds being sold by asset managers or even hedge funds?

Short of it, you need to calm down and don't attack for the sake of attacking.

If ETFs are ponzis it means all assets that behave like funds are ponzis. So what do you advocate? Stock picking? What's your track record like for picking stocks, better than Warren Buffett?

If you are only attacking and not providing an alternative than why are you wasting your time here? I've not seen anyone at all in this thread listening to your advice, on the contrary you are pushing people to the path of ST because he makes sound reasonings and give helpful advice.
 

swan02

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1. I've always held the perception Shiny's always pro IWDA and not VWRD. The way Shiny's answer was half hearted approach towards VWRD.

2. I'm not shiny, but speaking for myself, VWRD or IWDA+EIMI is not warranted considering we hold high amounts of STI which is highly correlated to the chinese market.

3. At first glance, I was blinded over 2822.hk, as a still hot blooded male I was excited to see Twin Peaks on my yahoo finance chart...You see, I fear beautiful woman like 2822, you won't know what you'll find "inside", it could be a man (questionable reporting ie statements whatever). An iron clad panty i mean curtain ring fences all these reporting, thus I find it fair to make unfair and unsubstantiated claims of Chinese companies. It can't be helped..would you really want to take the risk of bringing home a man as a wife ?

4. Comparing the returns of 2822 from the day it started with IWDA and VUSD. On an absolute return basis, it is quite attractive but as expected won't beat VUSD (the king of sitting on the efficient frontier) but beats IWDA.

However, as far as I invest, and it should apply to most, that absolute return is an illusion. People especially retail investors fear losses more so than making good returns.

2822 clearly shows it has CONSIDERABLE standard deviation (RISK), but also made worse based on my observation that it is plagued by Chinese retail investors and playing it like a bet in the race course. Not many of us would want to go through that sort of excitement.

5. I'm clearly biased and do not need to be ang moh to be one, many Chinese Singaporeans or asians also hold such views but may not necessarily be negative....hmmm let me see, china girls are pretty, WTH MOE is recruiting such pretty chinese language teachers !, even my primary one son can tell.

When covid19 numbers from china came out, I was already spouting "kelong". I also tell my incessant lying son-an older and smart one-, don't keep crying wolf, it will come and bite you one day. That's what China is facing now-lack of credibility...yes perhaps conspiracy theories that the west and western media is behind it-still it can't be helped if China is innocent.

One day just as the with the korean products, we will get to trust Chinese products.

So I assume you have opened an account with Tiger trading platform ?


Yes, you read those claims on the web, but similarly they are just the false claims perpetuated by some group of people (especially the Western media) without any facts and evidence to back up, and those are the ones that Shiny Things are just repeating them like parrot here. (Oh, forgot that may be Shing Things is another ang mo trying to help to perpetuate those Western media's propaganda?)

Shiny Things previously claimed that he is concerned that people will read and learn the wrong things in this forum. But yet when it comes to wrong things he posted, he seems to be totally not concerned at all that those false claims he posted here are misleading people here and he refused to retract those false claims even when he has nothing to backup these claims he posted here! :s8:

It is very easy to expose why all those are false claims regarding negativity about China posted by Shing Things here:

(1) Shiny Things claimed that Chinese banks have GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans!
This can easily be exposed to be false claim because where is the evidence? Please point to the Chinese bank financial statements, etc. ICBC, and show us where is the GARGANTUAN pile of bad loans?
Well, fact is, he can't provide any evidence to back up his claim, so this false claim has been exposed!
 

Listopad

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If keen to have small allocation to high yield bond , what are the recommendations for a high yield bond etf ?
 

Hollowwind

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My father (59) lump sum endowment plan is maturing on Aug this year. Term is 10 years. Principal: 37k, Sum Assured: 45.5k Net Cash Value: 54k. Any advice if he should continue putting or to take out?

TY!
 

chrisloh65

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Let me repeat it again (I replied to another user here the same thing):

Index ETF itself is not ponzi scheme, it is just an investment instrument.

Keep advocating other people to "DCA blindly into index ETFs over long term regardless of market conditions" (and don't sell), this strategy itself is a ponzi scheme!

You can see the details of my explanations on why those people strongly advocating and telling people to DCA buy blindly whenever they have money regardless of market conditions and never sell is a "ponzi scheme"!

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/128171469-post2417.html

To summarize, and to point out your misunderstanding, in this "DCA blindly into index ETFs over long term regardless of market conditions" (and don't sell) ponzi scheme, they didn't tell you to (and don't want you to) "buy when they see value" and "sell when they think otherwise" (which you mentioned - If they do, then the strategy Shiny Things advocated is not a ponzi scheme). Instead, they tell you to buy whenever you have money and never sell over the long term! This is why it is a ponzi scheme (because they don't want people to do what you mentioned)!

What other people thinks about me doesn't matter, as long as I know very well that I am telling the truth, and I have clear conscience to point out the ponzi scheme and warned people about it. I can't stop people from believing in liars and false claims after I had pointed out the facts which they refused to believe, and that doesn't bother me in any way, since if they choose to remain stupid, then it is up to them. Anyway, we have to face the fact that there are many more stupid people than clever people in this world, otherwise there will be many more multi-millionaires in this world than average and poor people isn't it?!


A) In a ponzi scheme you are buying a make believe product and hoping a greater fool will come in to prop the price and the scheme. It'll eventually collapse because there is nothing underpinning it.

B) In stocks people buy when they see value for example and sell when they think otherwise. Same thing can be done for ETFs. For simplicty sake, one is a single stock and the other one is an amalgamation of a number of stocks. Not that many differences.

C) If ETFs are a ponzi scheme than what are unit trusts and funds being sold by asset managers or even hedge funds?

Short of it, you need to calm down and don't attack for the sake of attacking.

If ETFs are ponzis it means all assets that behave like funds are ponzis. So what do you advocate? Stock picking? What's your track record like for picking stocks, better than Warren Buffett?

If you are only attacking and not providing an alternative than why are you wasting your time here? I've not seen anyone at all in this thread listening to your advice, on the contrary you are pushing people to the path of ST because he makes sound reasonings and give helpful advice.
 
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chrisloh65

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1. I am not sure why you are trying to twists and turns for Shiny Things here. It is a fact that Shiny Things advocate you to buy IWDA or otherwise VWRD as alternative which includes some EM. Go find his posts and they are everywhere here that can verify what I said is true.

2. I don't see how STI can be compared to China's stock market and can be substitute for China market's exposure. GDP of Singapore is $372B vs China's $13,368B and hence ultimately the stock market effect will be vastly different. Furthermore based STI ETF and China A50 ETF price movements, I can't see close correlation between STI ETF ES3 vs China A50 ETF 2822.HK. Example, based on inception date in Aug 2012 where 2822.HK is HK$7.13 and now is HK$14.52 vs ES3 where in Aug 2012 is S$3.06 and now is S$2.711, so 2822.HK has gone up by +103.64% while ES3 has gone down by -11.40%, so there is no close correlation at all between STI index and China A50 index!

3. Again, you comments about all those questionable reporting / financial statements etc are limited to small number of Chinese companies, but you wrote as though all Chinese companies got the same problem, which of course is a false claim (just like what Shiny Things made)!

Based on your analogy, anybody can also say USA/Western companies are full of questionable reporting / financial statements with their Auditors working in collusion to cover these fraud up, otherwise you won't see historic worst case biggest financial fraud and bankruptcy happened to companies like Enron, Worldcom, and others like Arthur Anderson, and now Wirecard! So based on your logic, the fact of actual historical collapse of USA and Western companies due to accounting fraud means that investing in USA and the West's stocks is really no different from "taking the risk of bringing home a man as a wife" right?!

4. Fair enough, but for diversification purpose, I won't put all money in 1 market, and definitely not in IWDA (with >65% in USA market) and USA markets & USD, especially when USA Gov is printing USD like toilet papers and issuing so much USA Gov bonds which they clearly have NO ability to repay with real assets (other than to repay you with the printed USD toilet papers which keep depreciating in real value the more they print the USD toilet papers)! Not to mentioned the horrendeously over-priced US stocks (especially the US tech stocks), and IWDA contains >65% of horrendously over-priced US stocks!

I don't look at absolute return - I look at % of ROI.
There is no way where the stock market will not be volatile when there are many individual players (who acted independently), unless you deploy this ponzi scheme that I had exposed, i.e. devise a "ponzi scheme" like "DCA blindly into index ETFs over long term regardless of market conditions" (and don't sell), and in this case the stock index will be very stable and mostly going up and up and up (with very little "standard deviation", which is what you like), because there are so many greater fools to help to push up the price by buying blindly (because few people will sell)!
However, this will only make the early adopters (like Shing Things (and are you one of this early adopters?)) retire early and very rich, while the later adopters will see diminishing returns and even face losses when they are ready to retire 30 years down the road (because there is no way horrendously over-valued stocks like now can continue to climb forever for next 30 years)!

5. Too many of you have been brain-washed by Western propaganda, and all the lies, falsehoods, and fake claims by these Western media that you read (just like Shiny Things). This is particularly so when most of you can only read and understand English (and only read these biased Western media) but have poor grasps of Chinese (or can't even read Chinese) and don't read Chinese publications at all. There are always 2 sides to a story, but most of you can only read 1 sided story, and usually the ang mo side if you are Singaporeans who has poor grasp of Chinese.

6. You said CoVid-19 numbers from china is "kelong"?
You didn't read so many people commenting that USA CoVid-19 numbers are the most "kelong" of all in the world?! USA CDC don't even want to collate their numbers from all states and refused to do so! Again, you don't know right?! Otherwise you will no say China's CoVid-19 numbers is "kelong", it should be USA CoVid-19 numbers we are seeing now that is totally "kelong"!
May be there will come a time when people said USA can be trusted again, but USA has already lost all credibility and people's trust since several years ago, with the shocking exposure (with concrete evidence) that USA Gov, with the aid of US companies and the Five Eyes countries (UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada), has engaged in world-wide massive spying, hacking, and stealing, and also assassination and murder, and also war crimes in Afganistan, Iraq, etc! Not only that, USA tried to block investigation into its war crimes by International Criminal Court and wanting to sanction those people who participate in this investigation! Oh talk about USA sanctions, USA sanctions are everywhere, as though whole world's people are under their justification and they can sanction and detain and jail you for whatever Trump-edup reasons they want! Just look at the illegal detention of Meng Wangzhou and we will know!

Even USA initiating war on Iraq, Syria, Libya etc, this act itself is a war crime! But obviously USA has been bullying through all its way because it used to be the most powerful nation in the world, but USA is now so scared that it can no longer maintain being the most powerful country in the world (and can waged war against any country any time they like) because of rise of China that USA and its White Western allies need to everyday keep spilling lies and falsehoods about China to get more countries to stand to their side to boycott China. Well, at least quite a number of people are not so stupid to fall into USA's trap!


1. I've always held the perception Shiny's always pro IWDA and not VWRD. The way Shiny's answer was half hearted approach towards VWRD.

2. I'm not shiny, but speaking for myself, VWRD or IWDA+EIMI is not warranted considering we hold high amounts of STI which is highly correlated to the chinese market.

3. At first glance, I was blinded over 2822.hk, as a still hot blooded male I was excited to see Twin Peaks on my yahoo finance chart...You see, I fear beautiful woman like 2822, you won't know what you'll find "inside", it could be a man (questionable reporting ie statements whatever). An iron clad panty i mean curtain ring fences all these reporting, thus I find it fair to make unfair and unsubstantiated claims of Chinese companies. It can't be helped..would you really want to take the risk of bringing home a man as a wife ?

4. Comparing the returns of 2822 from the day it started with IWDA and VUSD. On an absolute return basis, it is quite attractive but as expected won't beat VUSD (the king of sitting on the efficient frontier) but beats IWDA.

However, as far as I invest, and it should apply to most, that absolute return is an illusion. People especially retail investors fear losses more so than making good returns.

2822 clearly shows it has CONSIDERABLE standard deviation (RISK), but also made worse based on my observation that it is plagued by Chinese retail investors and playing it like a bet in the race course. Not many of us would want to go through that sort of excitement.

5. I'm clearly biased and do not need to be ang moh to be one, many Chinese Singaporeans or asians also hold such views but may not necessarily be negative....hmmm let me see, china girls are pretty, WTH MOE is recruiting such pretty chinese language teachers !, even my primary one son can tell.

When covid19 numbers from china came out, I was already spouting "kelong". I also tell my incessant lying son-an older and smart one-, don't keep crying wolf, it will come and bite you one day. That's what China is facing now-lack of credibility...yes perhaps conspiracy theories that the west and western media is behind it-still it can't be helped if China is innocent.

One day just as the with the korean products, we will get to trust Chinese products.

So I assume you have opened an account with Tiger trading platform ?
 
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FrostWurm

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You can see the details of my explanations on why those people strongly advocating and telling people to DCA buy blindly whenever they have money regardless of market conditions and never sell is a "ponzi scheme"!

To summarize, and to point out your misunderstanding, in this "DCA blindly into index ETFs over long term regardless of market conditions" (and don't sell) ponzi scheme, they didn't tell you to (and don't want you to) "buy when they see value" and "sell when they think otherwise" (which you mentioned - If they do, then the strategy Shiny Things advocated is not a ponzi scheme). Instead, they tell you to buy whenever you have money and never sell over the long term! This is why it is a ponzi scheme (because they don't want people to do what you mentioned)!

Your argument is rather unpersuasive.

Even if a lot of people were to buy an ETF, the price of the ETF is generally kept in line with the prices of its constituent stocks via the arbitrage mechanism of the ETF manager. Bond ETFs tend to have a larger tracking error because they are more illiquid but the ETFs of well-known stock indices have low tracking errors.

DCA is a strategy that advises you to invest a fixed amount at a fixed interval regardless of how market conditions are. It may seem like blind optimism that assumes stocks only go up, but 1) stocks have tended to go up, 2) most parties fail to outperform the market through active management, and 3) it has generally beaten a strategy of keeping your cash in conservative investments, albeit with more volatility.

I cannot see how this strategy is a ponzi scheme. Even if you disagree with this strategy, how does it fit the criteria of a ponzi scheme? A ponzi scheme is a fraud where monies from later investors are used to pay earlier investors. This is not the case here.

It is also not a case of "pump-and-dump" because of the afore-mentioned arbitrage mechanism that keeps the price of the ETF close to the price of its constituent stocks. In any case, I certainly don't think a thread in hardwarezone is capable of moving the price of an ETF at all.

You might have gotten yourself confused at some point, maybe slow down and revise some of the material you have on hand? And discuss your conclusions with other friends to see if they have the same train of thought.
 
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chrisloh65

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Firstly, you can't see how it is a ponzi scheme cannot be used as a valid argument that it is not a ponzi scheme.
It is a ponzi scheme when too many people believed in it, and it becomes a vicious self-fulfilling prophecy, hence the need to remind and warn others that this will become a ponzi scheme if too many people adopt it, and it is a fact that when too many people only DCA buy and never sell until 30 years later, only the early adopters (like Shiny Things, and some of you here (are you one of them?)) will retire early and retire richest, while the later adopters will only see diminishing returns and possible losses 30 years later.

Who can guarantee that stock index will go up forever? We already clearly see that this is not the case with Nikkei index. And it is likely that we may see S&P500 index to follow suit as well (and hence IWDA since it contains >65% of US stocks), given that US Gov is adopting similar strategy like Japan years ago to print tons of money, reduce interest rate to 0, and artificially propping up stock prices etc.

I have no doubt you have become too confused to think clearly, and it will do you good to ponder very clearly and look at it from all angles, and hopefully you will be enlightened. Once you are enlightened, you would be able to make a lot of money from investment, I have no doubt about that (just like me since I have walked the same path to "enlightenment").


Your argument is rather unpersuasive.

Even if a lot of people were to buy an ETF, the price of the ETF is generally kept in line with the prices of its constituent stocks via the arbitrage mechanism of the ETF manager. Bond ETFs tend to have a larger tracking error because they are more illiquid but the ETFs of well-known stock indices have low tracking errors.

DCA is a strategy that advises you to invest a fixed amount at a fixed interval regardless of how market conditions are. It may seem like blind optimism that assumes stocks only go up, but 1) stocks have tended to go up, 2) most parties fail to outperform the market through active management, and 3) it has generally beaten a strategy of keeping your cash in conservative investments, albeit with more volatility.

I cannot see how this strategy is a ponzi scheme. Even if you disagree with this strategy, how does it fit the criteria of a ponzi scheme? A ponzi scheme is a fraud where monies from later investors are used to pay earlier investors. This is not the case here.

It is also not a case of "pump-and-dump" because of the afore-mentioned arbitrage mechanism that keeps the price of the ETF close to the price of its constituent stocks. In any case, I certainly don't think a thread in hardwarezone is capable of moving the price of an ETF at all.

You might have gotten yourself confused at some point, maybe slow down and revise some of the material you have on hand? And discuss your conclusions with other friends to see if they have the same train of thought.
 
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investor8

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VUG vs IWF

Hi,
this is my first time posting in this thread. I have gathered from a few earlier posts that this thread related to "buy and hold" type of investment strategy which does fall in line with my strategy.

I've been looking into buying either VUG or IWF. I am leaning towards VUG due to its low expense ratio. Does anyone have any positions on VUG? What are the dividends like over the past few years? I know this is a growth ETF so the withholding tax may not be substantial.

Any advise is deeply appreciated.
 
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BBCWatcher

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I've been looking into buying either VUG or IWF.
Those are U.S. domiciled funds, so they’re subject to U.S. dividend and estate taxes. If you’re a U.S. person, or expect to become one soon (you’re moving to the U.S. next year with your U.S. citizen spouse for example), they might be worth considering. Otherwise, probably not.

I am leaning towards VUG due to its low expense ratio. Does anyone have any positions on VUG? What are the dividends like over the past few years? I know this is a growth ETF so the withholding tax may not be substantial.
Half the dividend withholding tax looks like it’ll be worth about 13 basis points of headwind currently.
 

WC32890

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Firstly, you can't see how it is a ponzi scheme cannot be used as a valid argument that it is not a ponzi scheme.
It is a ponzi scheme when too many people believed in it, and it becomes a vicious self-fulfilling prophecy, hence the need to remind and warn others that this will become a ponzi scheme if too many people adopt it, and it is a fact that when too many people only DCA buy and never sell until 30 years later, only the early adopters (like Shiny Things, and some of you here (are you one of them?)) will retire early and retire richest, while the later adopters will only see diminishing returns and possible losses 30 years later.

Who can guarantee that stock index will go up forever? We already clearly see that this is not the case with Nikkei index. And it is likely that we may see S&P500 index to follow suit as well (and hence IWDA since it contains >65% of US stocks), given that US Gov is adopting similar strategy like Japan years ago to print tons of money, reduce interest rate to 0, and artificially propping up stock prices etc.

I have no doubt you have become too confused to think clearly, and it will do you good to ponder very clearly and look at it from all angles, and hopefully you will be enlightened. Once you are enlightened, you would be able to make a lot of money from investment, I have no doubt about that (just like me since I have walked the same path to "enlightenment").

If you argue until like that they the entire stock market is a ponzi scheme lo. Heck even the real estate market is also a ponzi scheme since its also based on supply and demand. In fact every appreciatable investment class is also a ponzi scheme since its also based on the concept of supply and demand and willing buyer willing seller basis.

Then you save your money in savings account instead lo. Simple.
 

chrisloh65

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I highly suspect that you either have comprehension problem or you practise selecting reading :s13:

Please see my post below, which I already clearly stated that:

Index ETF itself is not ponzi scheme, it is just an investment instrument.

Keep advocating other people to "DCA blindly into index ETFs over long term regardless of market conditions" (and don't sell), this strategy itself is a ponzi scheme!


So clearly if index ETF itself is not a ponzi scheme but an investment instrument, "stock market" itself is an investment instrument, and "real estate market" is an investment instrument.

Hope the above clarification helps you. I believe you really need help in your comprehension or selecting reading problem. Wish you well...... :s22:

If you argue until like that they the entire stock market is a ponzi scheme lo. Heck even the real estate market is also a ponzi scheme since its also based on supply and demand. In fact every appreciatable investment class is also a ponzi scheme since its also based on the concept of supply and demand and willing buyer willing seller basis.

Then you save your money in savings account instead lo. Simple.

Let me repeat it again (I replied to another user here the same thing):

Index ETF itself is not ponzi scheme, it is just an investment instrument.

Keep advocating other people to "DCA blindly into index ETFs over long term regardless of market conditions" (and don't sell), this strategy itself is a ponzi scheme!

You can see the details of my explanations on why those people strongly advocating and telling people to DCA buy blindly whenever they have money regardless of market conditions and never sell is a "ponzi scheme"!

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/128171469-post2417.html

To summarize, and to point out your misunderstanding, in this "DCA blindly into index ETFs over long term regardless of market conditions" (and don't sell) ponzi scheme, they didn't tell you to (and don't want you to) "buy when they see value" and "sell when they think otherwise" (which you mentioned - If they do, then the strategy Shiny Things advocated is not a ponzi scheme). Instead, they tell you to buy whenever you have money and never sell over the long term! This is why it is a ponzi scheme (because they don't want people to do what you mentioned)!

What other people thinks about me doesn't matter, as long as I know very well that I am telling the truth, and I have clear conscience to point out the ponzi scheme and warned people about it. I can't stop people from believing in liars and false claims after I had pointed out the facts which they refused to believe, and that doesn't bother me in any way, since if they choose to remain stupid, then it is up to them. Anyway, we have to face the fact that there are many more stupid people than clever people in this world, otherwise there will be many more multi-millionaires in this world than average and poor people isn't it?!
 
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