just for sharing. saw this while browsing the website.
Balloting process scenario
Now, let's get back to the balloting process and why its so hard to get a good queue number. As a first timer applicant, 70%-95% of the flats are set aside for you depending on the type of flat and the location. Within the 95%, 30% are set aside for PPS and another 30% for MCPS.
Let's take for example the following scenarios:
Location: Toa Payoh (Mature Estate)
Flats available: 1000
Total number of applicants: 2000 (Oversubscribed)
PPS applicants: 400
MCPS applicants: 400
Other first timers: 400
Second timers: 800
1. Flats for first timer: 950 (95%)
Flats for PPS: 300
Flats for MCPS: 300
Flats for other first timers: 350
2. Flats for second timer: 50 (5%)
Now, with the above scenarios, we can predict how the ballot process will work. This is just based on my understanding but it may not be exactly how it is done.
First, HDB will shortlist applicants up to 100% of the flat supply. There are 1000 flats available in this instance.
Step 1:
PPS applicants will be shortlisted first. 400 PPS applicants are shortlisted for 300 units set aside for them. This means that 100 PPS are out of the shortlist.
Step 2:
MCPS applicants will be shortlisted. 400 MCPS applicants are shortlisted for 300 units set aside for them. This means that 100 MCPS are out of the shortlist.
Step 3:
Other first timer applicants will be shortlisted. There are 400 other first timer applicants plus 100 PPS who failed in step 1 and 100 MCPS who failed in step 2. They will probably be shortlisted in this step 3 as well. This part is unclear as I could not get any information from HDB. If the PPS and MCPS are put in this pool as well, we have a total of 600 applicants who will fight for 350 units. This means 250 first timers (regardless of priority schemes) will be out of the 1000 queue number.
Step 4:
Now, second timers will be shortlisted. 800 second timer applicants will be shortlisted for 50 units set aside for them. This means that 750 second timer applicants will be out of the shortlist. As a second timer applicant, you must be really lucky if you can get shortlisted within the 100% supply of flats.
Final step:
The final step is all those who are shortlisted (first and second timers) will now be assigned random queue numbers. A first timer applicant can still get the last queue number 1000 and a second timer applicant can get queue number 1. Those who are out of the 1000 flat supply will still be assigned queue numbers as HDB gives out queue numbers for 300% of the flat supply.
By now, if you managed to follow the above scenario, you would have realised that the balloting process is completely based on luck to get a good queue number. It doesn't matter if you applied under any priority schemes. The priority schemes only increase your chance of being assigned a queue number but not your chance of a good queue number.
http://sgyounginvestment.blogspot.com/2018/06/should-i-get-bto-or-resale-flat.html