2020 market expectations and positioning - Part 2

[3dfxplayer]

u play shares or option?

No options, was mostly just long QQQ with some adjustment to size from time to time.

 

[3dfxplayer]

Oh, waiting for them to expire, which they are > 95% likely to do so, bcos its really deep OTM. I think buying the underlying SPY is a gd trade too for long term. Congrats.

Usually i do it both ways. On one hand, i sell deep OTM puts hoping to kio durians, on the other hand, i have my mthly DCA into selected ETF/stocks just in case the durians dont drop.

Now, the market is turning out as I expect, with value stocks rising temporarily due to vaccine news, while Tech takes a hit. But if we project into the months and years ahead, Tech will easily outpace value. As an investor, we dont even need to get the right Tech, just get QQQ, VGT will do. Let the market do the work.

Imo tech is very vulnerable next year, and probably beyond that as well. Lots of tech stocks are now trading at obscene valuations relative to the broader market, covid has pulled forward a lot of demand for their products and services, going forward I don't think growth is going to be anywhere near as strong. Tech is a secular growth story for sure but its way overdone now.

 

[RedsYWNA]

Whats your opinion on HKEX: 3067?

i dont really like it due to the 8% cap rule (Why should baba and tencent be weighted the same as some smaller tech, they are big for a reason), but its very liquid, low cost and heavily traded. So I can understand why some would like it as a China tech exposure.

 

[RedsYWNA]

can sic what is your counterbalance for ASIA/CN ETFs?
I'm also looking at doing QQQ(moving in soon) + ARKK(bot) too

No need to SIC lah, i am just a normal investor without a secret sauce! haha.

For China exposure, I just have Baba, Tencent, JD, as a counter-measure to QQQ. I think can consider etfs like Mchi, CXSE, 2801 also......

 

[shidenx]

Super-over-reaction. Medical stocks like those glove counters are down so much. People forgetting the simple fact that hospital staff need gloves to administer vaccines?

And SIA up 13% after their abysmal earnings? It's a joke really.

This vaccine news . is . not . a . silver . bullet.

Too many people hoping for good news to end nightmare.

I also feel is overreaction as fundamentals of economic growth was only recently slammed. Now we got one vaguely positive news and it's over?

 

[YouHeypiCanLiao]

No need to SIC lah, i am just a normal investor without a secret sauce! haha.

For China exposure, I just have Baba, Tencent, JD, as a counter-measure to QQQ. I think can consider etfs like Mchi, CXSE, 2801 also......

Ok thanks.. perhaps I just get an Asia ETF to cover it ba.. thanks...
so perhaps 60% US, 40% Asia if referring to ETF allocation.

 

[candy crush]

Now market red again

what happen again

 

[MrHighlander]

Green

Feel sick again

Has the train left ?

 

[MrHighlander]

That’s my concern too

But I realise that markets are not rational so have to also consider the potential lost opportunity

Too many people hoping for good news to end nightmare.

I also feel is overreaction as fundamentals of economic growth was only recently slammed. Now we got one vaguely positive news and it's over?

 

[Potato_Wedges]

Too many people hoping for good news to end nightmare.

I also feel is overreaction as fundamentals of economic growth was only recently slammed. Now we got one vaguely positive news and it's over?

Exactly. Most retailers are like sheeps...guided blindly by news.
Now futures is Red again...and strong Sell. Good luck for those who buy today!

 

[d9_lives]

Green

Feel sick again

Has the train left ?

Lolz at this guy

 

[NewInvestor]

Green

Feel sick again

Has the train left ?

Train leaving is the same as boat leaving?

 

[paladin]

Imo tech is very vulnerable next year, and probably beyond that as well. Lots of tech stocks are now trading at obscene valuations relative to the broader market, covid has pulled forward a lot of demand for their products and services, going forward I don't think growth is going to be anywhere near as strong. Tech is a secular growth story for sure but its way overdone now.

I think growth for tech stocks will slow from the 100-200% gains this year, but there will still be at least 20-50% growth , because the base is now larger. A lot of unprofitable unicorns started to turn profitable this year instead of the projected year 2022, so kind of front loaded the gains, but having turned profitable, it means they now have capital to grow some more and a lot of change, e.g cloud, digital payments and ecommerce are irreversible with or without vaccine.

For example, for grocery shopping, we can shop physically since Singapore is no longer in "circuit breaker", but my family still shop online for groceries as easier to compare prices and sometimes cheaper than physical stores since items are ordered from manufacturers or wholesalers rather than retailers, easier to search and more convenient since items are delivered to doorstep.

 

[MangoTuna65]

Train leaving is the same as boat leaving?

Train harder to reverse

 

[pm_me_ur_noods]

Ok thanks.. perhaps I just get an Asia ETF to cover it ba.. thanks...
so perhaps 60% US, 40% Asia if referring to ETF allocation.

If you want Chinese tech, look at KWEB

 

[NewInvestor]

I think growth for tech stocks will slow from the 100-200% gains this year, but there will still be at least 20-50% growth , because the base is now larger. A lot of unprofitable unicorns started to turn profitable this year instead of the projected year 2022, so kind of front loaded the gains, but having turned profitable, it means they now have capital to grow some more and a lot of change, e.g cloud, digital payments and ecommerce are irreversible with or without vaccine.

For example, for grocery shopping, we can shop physically since Singapore is no longer in "circuit breaker", but my family still shop online for groceries as easier to compare prices and sometimes cheaper than physical stores since items are ordered from manufacturers or wholesalers rather than retailers, easier to search and more convenient since items are delivered to doorstep.

I agree. 100% to 200% growth is unsustainable. 20% to 50% CAGR for long term is more realistic and is good enough.

 

[FrostWurm]

A lot of people see tech as an industry. But that is not the case.

Tech is everywhere in every industry.

Facebook probably doesn't have the same business model as a Gojek which doesn't have the same business model as MongoDB which doesn't have the same business model as Netflix.

 

[d5dude]

A lot of people see tech as an industry. But that is not the case.

Tech is everywhere in every industry.

Facebook probably doesn't have the same business model as a Gojek which doesn't have the same business model as MongoDB which doesn't have the same business model as Netflix.

Tech is not everywhere, reits got no tech...

 

[hwbest]

sti id at dizzying heights now. what an unbelievable week! like 1987 inverse.

 

[tesarise]

sti id at dizzying heights now. what an unbelievable week! like 1987 inverse.

errr STI was >3.5k 2 years back. what is this dizzying heights you talking about.