Thanks. I have now taken the tracking to the next level. I have given up trying to time the markets, instead my plan is now to do an increasing glide path of equity ratio initially 1% a month and then tapering* to 0.7% and finally 0.5% to get from my current 30% to 60% equity allocation ratio in the next 3years. I dont know what markets will do, but I know how much income I approximately save in the next 3 years. So, I have this inflow coming. Then I take base case scenario that markets overall stay stagnant and then I plot the scenario of my monthly networth values and equity ratio for the next 1year and allocation of my new inflow. Then as months go by I do scenario vs actual. In months when markets go up significantly, I dont have to spend much from my bond fund to buy equities, as the market does the increase for me, that is a happy thing. When markets fall, I need to deploy more into the markets, that kind of means buying low, that is also a happy thing.
So it is very interesting to track and now I am not very happy or sad when markets go up or down as I kind of have something to look forward to, in both scenarios.
I realized
@Shiny Things and
@BBCWatcher have great ideas about DCA and asset allocation, but I havent seen any great ideas about getting to the right target allocation from the wrong allocation. The suggestion is usually break it up into 6months, 1year or whatever and I find that too adhoc for my liking and there is no plan in it about what to do if markets fall or rise. So, I borrowed this idea from Michael Kitces research about rising equity glide path, which he did mainly for Sequence of return risk during the initial years of retirement. But I found it works perfectly for me.
https://www.kitces.com/blog/should-...is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/
*The reason this tapering is needed, I found getting from 30% equities to 40%, you dont need to spend a lot of your bond fund. But getting from 50% to 60%, you need to spend a lot, it is just the math, 1% of 30% is a smaller amount but 1% of 50% is a big amount. So the tapering is necessary to retain the rate of depletion of my bond fund corpus and if it depletes slower then it also grows a bit and adds to it. So, finding the right balance.