2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

limster

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I heard some even made Pelosi trade. Lmao. I mean Warren, Charlie and others are actually almost public for some trades. Thing is nothing is guaranteed, that is just impossible. For everything, I can think of 101 risks. No need to get the best, that just not possible. :crazy:

there is even an 'opposite" of what Cramer recommends trade. 😅
 

limster

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What a rally! It seems this always happens, a new rally starts, most market pundits keep saying the market is wrong, the market is wrong. But they keep watching the rally in disbelief. I have seen it over and over again. Yet, it seems almost impossible for most people to stay invested. I think thats why they say, investing is simple but not easy. If everyone could do it, everyone would be very rich, which is not possible.

BOE big rate hike and forecasting long recession, but FTSE is green, and so is LLOY. I guess I'm relieved because it could have been worse, but I guess market already expected the hike 📊 😅
 

elvintay07

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Haha! Weeks ago I bought when ppl are ultra bearish. Now selling to take profit but still holding to long term positions
 

direbmem

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BOE big rate hike and forecasting long recession, but FTSE is green, and so is LLOY. I guess I'm relieved because it could have been worse, but I guess market already expected the hike 📊 😅
STI at ATH now. Are you still of opinion shd sell STI ETF at 3.3x and buy back when 2.9x?
 

revhappy

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STI at ATH now. Are you still of opinion shd sell STI ETF at 3.3x and buy back when 2.9x?
This almost never ends well. You sell and the price keeps going up and you kick yourself then it falls a bit and then you buy back and then it keeps falling more. This is exactly how it plays out, always!
 

limster

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UK can announce mega rate hike and long recession, market can still go up 😅

However, if you have made good profits from STI ETF because you bought it under $3, and want to sell some and use the profits to buy some SSB, why not? This is sort of like rebalancing.

Talking about SSB, a long as its >2.5% CPF rate, I'll be applying every month till I reach $200k.
 

zzTiny

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Idk I still think the current price for s&p is still quite expensive. The valuation multiplier keeps fluctuating and the range is so big. 3600 to 4300. Even if the multiplier increase, a better price will be around 3950 to 4030.

Talking about interest rate. Idk but I think 3%-3.5% will be the eoy.

Limster and Co, how do you draw a line where you stop buying. I still got more to learn. :frown:
 

limster

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Idk I still think the current price for s&p is still quite expensive. The valuation multiplier keeps fluctuating and the range is so big. 3600 to 4300. Even if the multiplier increase, a better price will be around 3950 to 4030.

Talking about interest rate. Idk but I think 3%-3.5% will be the eoy.

Limster and Co, how do you draw a line where you stop buying. I still got more to learn. :frown:

I've shared my target prices in other posts, most recently I shared my IWDA target price of $75.
If lower than $75, I'm accumulating. After it goes back above $75, I stop buying.

Whether my target price is right or wrong, I don't know, please DYODD 😅 📉 📉 📉

IWDA $75 will be a good price for me! 😅
 

limster

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Idk I still think the current price for s&p is still quite expensive. The valuation multiplier keeps fluctuating and the range is so big. 3600 to 4300. Even if the multiplier increase, a better price will be around 3950 to 4030.

Talking about interest rate. Idk but I think 3%-3.5% will be the eoy.

Limster and Co, how do you draw a line where you stop buying. I still got more to learn. :frown:

I've shared my target prices in other posts, most recently I shared my IWDA target price of $75.
If lower than $75, I'm accumulating. After it goes back above $75, I stop buying.

I also shared my targets for FTSE100 - 6500 is a good level for buying.

Whether my target price is right or wrong, I don't know, please DYODD. IWDA too early to tell because its currently $77... any gains can be wiped out easily. As for FTSE, if recession announced but still holding steady above 7,000, maybe my target price was accurate! 😅 📉 📉 📉

IWDA $75 will be a good price for me! 😅

My FTSE 100 strategy is:
<6499 buy buy buy!
6500-6999 accumulate, slow down as you approach 7,000.
>7000 stop buying


Currently FTSE is 6,658, so it is still attractive and I am still buying FTSE100 ETF as part of an overall plan . But not cheap enough to go all-in :s13:
 

limster

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I expect people to be asking whether the boat is leaving.

I have reinvested $60k in May so far (including $12k allocation of Astrea VII)

Unfortunately, my Refund from SPH+Frasers 3.65%+Aviva in May amounts to $70k so I did not manage to reinvest all my refunds.

I overlooked the Aviva return of capital until too late - if I found out earlier I would have bought more Aviva when it was under 4GBP earlier this month. Now it has rallied 10%....

I invested heavily in the first market bottom in May... but then the market dropped against in June. But that was ok, because I simply bought more in June. I am not so skilled to be able to time the market bottom perfectly.

The more important question for me is whether I can still make money even if I started buying too early in May. As my earlier link shows, I started buying once IWDA went below $75 and continued to average down, so currently based on my May/June buying prices I am comfortably green though one crash is all it takes to turn red.

Have to wait to year end to find out when buying in May/June was 'correct. Market can go either way, but I am comfortable with holding at my average buying prices. And yes, I can collect dividends while waiting. Power of CD!
 
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limster

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Investing.com -- Aviva PLC (LON:AV) shares surged to a two-month high on Wednesday after the British insurer unveiled a new share buyback scheme backed by balance sheet strength and cash inflows.

The company did not release how much in shares it will repurchase but said it is aiming to start the program at its full-year results. Earlier in 2022, Aviva agreed to return £4.75B in capital to stakeholders and increased its dividend, thanks to funds raised from the sale of eight businesses.

"Assuming a new buyback is agreed, its size will be determined by the Board at year end and will take account of the financial position at that time, as well as both the drivers of the capital surplus (including the impact of market movements) and our preference to return surplus capital regularly and sustainably," Aviva said.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/new...-new-share-buyback-plan-announced/ar-AA10vEmx

Aviva announced higher dividend, market likes it a lot! Share price currently +12%!

Aviva is one of two individual stocks in my top 10 holdings. The rest are 7 ETFs and 1 Unit Trust.

However, since I am terrible at selling, the share price increase doesn't interest me as much as the dividend increase! Power of CD! 💲 📊 📈 🏧
 

limster

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GSK and Haleon have been whacked hard by the Zantec litigation. As I have posted elsewhere, is the market overreacting where Haleon is concerned, since Zantec is under GSK and not Haleon. Yahoo finance reports that Haleon may have indemnification obligations to GSK which I guess is causing Haleon to tank as well.

Anyway, the price crash seems to be a good opportunity to start building up my position in Haleon since I use so many of their products 😅
 

limster

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What a rally! It seems this always happens, a new rally starts, most market pundits keep saying the market is wrong, the market is wrong. But they keep watching the rally in disbelief. I have seen it over and over again. Yet, it seems almost impossible for most people to stay invested. I think thats why they say, investing is simple but not easy. If everyone could do it, everyone would be very rich, which is not possible.

though I doubt we will get the sort of crazy almost continuous rally like in 2021, I am optimistic that there will be more green days than red days and that we will rally to breakeven point by the end of this year! 💲 📈📊

The market is inching forward so slowly, most people are probably not noticing the rally and still in 'doom and gloom' mood. Maybe 1 more week of green and then the 'has the boat sailed yet' posts will start appearing....
😅

like I have mentioned before, I think there will be a small rally (slightly more green than red) to breakeven at year-end rather than a mega-rally.

Good move. It will easily go back to $80!

I bought WQDV today. Will buy IWDA at 74.99.
IWDA is currently $78. It was a good buy below $75 like I mentioned, and fairly valued between $75-$80, so I will continue buying until IWDA hits $80, then better stop and watch the market...

last time my thinking was that since my average buying price is below $75, I don't buy at $78 because it will 'increase' my average buying price and lower my % gain. I've since moved on to focusing on absolute $$$ gains. If IWDA is below $80 and I have conviction it will go above $80, then might as well buy since I will make profit....
 
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TehSi99

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The market is inching forward so slowly, most people are probably not noticing the rally and still in 'doom and gloom' mood. Maybe 1 more week of green and then the 'has the boat sailed yet' posts will start appearing....
😅

like I have mentioned before, I think there will be a small rally (slightly more green than red) to breakeven at year-end rather than a mega-rally.


IWDA is currently $78. It was a good buy below $75 like I mentioned, and fairly valued between $75-$80, so I will continue buying until IWDA hits $80, then better stop and watch the market...

last time my thinking was that since my average buying price is below $75, I don't buy at $78 because it will 'increase' my average buying price and lower my % gain. I've since moved on to focusing on absolute $$$ gains. If IWDA is below $80 and I have conviction it will go above $80, then might as well buy since I will make profit....

I think the rally could be small and slow but the correction is big and quick.
 

sohguanh

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last time my thinking was that since my average buying price is below $75, I don't buy at $78 because it will 'increase' my average buying price and lower my % gain. I've since moved on to focusing on absolute $$$ gains. If IWDA is below $80 and I have conviction it will go above $80, then might as well buy since I will make profit....
My simple rule for averaging up is I only top up when the current price is about 5-10% above my existing average buy price. This is becuz if it drop just after I top-up I still have enough buffer to maintain green color. But I notice sometimes the fall is fast and quick and can down even 5-10% in a single trading day. I guess that is unavoidable as risk are always there in stocks,ETFs
 

revhappy

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IWDA is currently $78. It was a good buy below $75 like I mentioned, and fairly valued between $75-$80, so I will continue buying until IWDA hits $80, then better stop and watch the market...

last time my thinking was that since my average buying price is below $75, I don't buy at $78 because it will 'increase' my average buying price and lower my % gain. I've since moved on to focusing on absolute $$$ gains. If IWDA is below $80 and I have conviction it will go above $80, then might as well buy since I will make profit....
This is a good strategy. I personally view current warchest v/s new inflow differently.

Current warchest we actively decided to keep in cash. But new inflow is new opportunity, there is no way to go back in time to invest the new inflow so for new inflow I am more agnostic to price.
 

snowchicken

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My portfolio is up 9% year to date, while NASDAQ +21% and S&P +17% from market bottom. Tried timing the rally but didn't have the courage to all in. While its possible to time the market, being too slow to react or being too conservative in position sizing can affect your returns..it's difficult to match or beat the market even if you invest in the indexes itself.
 

TehSi99

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My portfolio is up 9% year to date, while NASDAQ +21% and S&P +17% from market bottom. Tried timing the rally but didn't have the courage to all in. While its possible to time the market, being too slow to react or being too conservative in position sizing can affect your returns..it's difficult to match or beat the market even if you invest in the indexes itself.

So much talk about a bear market. Indices have recovered alot. Not sure if we are still in bear market or this is just a correction.
 
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