2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[Hello_Kitty]

@Hello_Kitty time to start 2023 discussion already

started the new 2023 thread and hope 2023 will be a better year!!!

 

[paladin]

China's ending of the zero Covid policy is going to be fiercely resisted by local officials who have invested heavily in testing centers and quarantine camps.

I do not see any issue. Who wants to man testing centres and quarantine camps anyway? It’s a shitty thankless job that doesn’t get appreciation and yet risk getting covid too.

 

[aurvandil]

I do not see any issue. Who wants to man testing centres and quarantine camps anyway? It’s a shitty thankless job that doesn’t get appreciation and yet risk getting covid too.

It is a cash cow for the friends and families of local officals.

For the quarantine camps, they earn about RMB 3k per pax per day at the quarantine camps. The dabai get about RMB 300 for each person they round up into the camps. The quarantine camps have gift shops run by friends and family where those in quarantine are forced to buy essentials at inflated prices.

The test centres get paid per pax. When there is an outbreak, there is a large amount of compulsory testing which earns them a windfall. The business is so good the companies running the test centres are planning IPOs in 2023.

 

[paladin]

It is a cash cow for the friends and families of local officals.

For the quarantine centres, they earn about RMB 3k per pax per day at the quarantine camps. The dabai get about RMB 300 for each person they round up into the camps. The quarantine camps have gift shops run by friends and family where those in quarantine are forced to buy essentials at inflated prices.

The test centres get paid per pax. When there is an outbreak, there is a large amount of compulsory testing which earns them a winfall. The business is so good the companies running the test centres are planning IPOs in 2023.

Lucky they haven't IPO, else I would short the test centres.

 

[churnmaster]

The first part was kind of what happened. The 2nd not so much,

The market has not behaved like the typical bear market. Other than the the initial move down from 4800, those who went short after 1Q22 lost as much $ as those who went long from the numerous face ripper rallies.

We are entering the last days of 2022. Market is down by a relatively modest amount as measured by the S&P. This is considering all the crazy stuff which happened in 2022 (e.g. war,oil shock, interest rates rising a massive 400 bps). If you had a crystal ball and could see what 2022 was going to be like in 2021, you would likely have expected the market to be much lower than where it is now.

There is no reason to believe 2023 will be any different and that somehow things will magically revert to what they were in 2021. My expectation is for more two way action where bulls and bears both take turns to get whacked.

Interesting, so you are no more the permabull which you claimed to be in the early part of this year.