2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[edwardZ]

thanks, thats a sign I should accumulate more.... together with Comfort Delgro

you are quite the sg stocks supporter hahaha i sold off most of my sg stocks previously and i am in favor of another dip in overall market situation before re-loading up. sg stocks really like sleeping dragon many times, they have a super long drawn out accumulation mode before a strong rise (can possibly time it with a potential sg golden age situation or something if any, years down the road).

 

[d5dude]

It is hard to know whether such high yield etf or funds actually pay out part of dividend from capital.

Stick with MBH but strangely last week never drop despite A35 falling.

Credit spreads have tightened recently. Some of the wholesale corp SGD bonds that I bought last year are up big in the last couple of weeks, perhaps reflecting easing recession fears.

 

[limster]

It is hard to know whether such high yield etf or funds actually pay out part of dividend from capital.

Stick with MBH but strangely last week never drop despite A35 falling.

its actually very easy, just read the ETF financial statement.

 

[wtaps300]

Apparently Chinese State TV announced Iran seeking 40bn investment from China. Will be a three-way discussion between China, Iran & Russia. Markets, especially Chinese stocks, not looking it in pm session.

 

[zzTiny]

Wow ftse at new ath. I think this is the most surprising to me. I am amazed really. Boe stopping interest hike at inflation of 10% is also amazing. If the old adage of interest rate > inflation rate is true. Does that mean UK is finished?

 

[limster]

Wow ftse at new ath. I think this is the most surprising to me. I am amazed really. Boe stopping interest hike at inflation of 10% is also amazing. If the old adage of interest rate > inflation rate is true. Does that mean UK is finished?

You do know that UK stock market is not the same as UK economy? The biggest components are Shell, Astrazeneca, HSBC, Unilever, BP.... etc

 

[zzTiny]

You do know that UK stock market is not the same as UK economy? The biggest components are Shell, Astrazeneca, HSBC, Unilever, BP.... etc

Yes I know. The components revenue are mostly outside UK. But EU economy looks inflating as well. So maybe the entire EU economy is finished if the old adage holds? I wonder how true is that old adage though. Doesn't that means the market is trying to say it will be highly sustained inflation? Just like Turkey's Erdomanics

oh wow, the US PPI went all the way up. Huh, is it really true that the old adage holds? oh boy, I wonder what solution is there.

 

[havetheveryfun]

you are quite the sg stocks supporter hahaha i sold off most of my sg stocks previously and i am in favor of another dip in overall market situation before re-loading up. sg stocks really like sleeping dragon many times, they have a super long drawn out accumulation mode before a strong rise (can possibly time it with a potential sg golden age situation or something if any, years down the road).

sg stocks more for dividends i guess... most of them can't grow one since is based in sg. unless able expand overseas

 

[DevilPlate]

sg stocks more for dividends i guess... most of them can't grow one since is based in sg. unless able expand overseas

Ya in general. Only a couple of stocks (other than banks) that i know of went up quite alot since covid like Propnex, hourglass, sheng siong & ifast.

 

[1.koln]

sg stocks more for dividends i guess... most of them can't grow one since is based in sg. unless able expand overseas

But the sg banks grow at a decent pace and give very attractive dividends

Probably the best choice for a dividend investor

For big and fast growth need to look at global markets

 

[havetheveryfun]

But the sg banks grow at a decent pace and give very attractive dividends

Probably the best choice for a dividend investor

For big and fast growth need to look at global markets

ya but now ATH dk still can go in or not

 

[d5dude]

Yes I know. The components revenue are mostly outside UK. But EU economy looks inflating as well. So maybe the entire EU economy is finished if the old adage holds? I wonder how true is that old adage though. Doesn't that means the market is trying to say it will be highly sustained inflation? Just like Turkey's Erdomanics

oh wow, the US PPI went all the way up. Huh, is it really true that the old adage holds? oh boy, I wonder what solution is there.

US CPI was in the double digits for many years back in the 70s/80s and that hasnt destroyed the US economy, why would the EU economy be finished after just a year of double digit inflation? Turkey's official inflation is like 70-80%, real inflation is probably well over 100%, its totally not comparable to developed markets.

Anyway Eurozone CPI/HICP have already turned negative recently, CPI will drop sharply if this trend continues and the high base effect rolls off.

 

[zzTiny]

US CPI was in the double digits for many years back in the 70s/80s and that hasnt destroyed the US economy, why would the EU economy be finished after just a year of double digit inflation? Turkey's official inflation is like 70-80%, real inflation is probably well over 100%, its totally not comparable to developed markets.

Anyway Eurozone CPI/HICP have already turned negative recently, CPI will drop sharply if this trend continues and the high base effect rolls off.

No eh. I thought the average inflation in the 70s for US is 5%+? For the entire 10 year.
EU now is 10%? And the boe has signal a pause. ECB seems to be struggling as well. Even if sharp drop till 5%. Imagine every year 5%. France looks broke as well with their pension reform and windfall tax. Of course, the EU will survive lah. Turkey is still alive and kicking mah. Turkey stock market also ups one. But finished as in the lives there will be miserable as heck. Hell I might even see more riot, more gov interference (tax, price controls, blah blah.) who knows what they going to steal from business.

Idk. Feels like a mess. I just hope that old adage where interest rate must be more than inflation rate to kill it is not completely true. If so, I am not sure how to prepare for this?

 

[d5dude]

No eh. I thought the average inflation in the 70s for US is 5%+? For the entire 10 year.
EU now is 10%? And the boe has signal a pause. ECB seems to be struggling as well. Even if sharp drop till 5%. Imagine every year 5%. France looks broke as well with their pension reform and windfall tax. Of course, the EU will survive lah. Turkey is still alive and kicking mah. Turkey stock market also ups one. But finished as in the lives there will be miserable as heck. Hell I might even see more riot.

Idk. Feels like a mess. I just hope that old adage where interest rate must be more than inflation rate to kill it is not completely true. If so, I am not sure how to prepare for this?

It was over 10% in some years, current US CPI is actually also over 10% if we normalise the methodology for CPI calculation like what Larry Summers suggested.

US CPI averaged 5+% for a decade but the economy is still ok today, so I'm not sure why you think EU's economy is going to be finished if the same thing happens again (not saying its going to happen but who knows?).

Rates are already higher than inflation rate right now so real rates are positive across the entire yield curve i.e monetary policy is currently restrictive, you are not reading the data correctly if you think real rates are negative.

 

[zzTiny]

It was over 10% in some years, current US CPI is actually also over 10% if we normalise the methodology for CPI calculation like what Larry Summers suggested.

US CPI averaged 5+% for a decade but the economy is still ok today, so I'm not sure why you think EU's economy is going to be finished if the same thing happens again (not saying its going to happen but who knows?).

Rates are already higher than inflation rate right now so real rates are positive across the entire yield curve i.e monetary policy is currently restrictive, you are not reading the data correctly if you think real rates are negative.

One decade leh. You say like is ok like that. Maybe ah, I never see clearly the real rates. I hope inflation goes to 2% by 2025? If no, what do you think can be done? If we get a decade of 5%+ inflation, what's the best thing to do ah?

 

[d5dude]

One decade leh. You say like is ok like that. Maybe ah, I never see clearly the real rates. I hope inflation goes to 2% by 2025? If no, what do you think can be done? If we get a decade of 5%+ inflation, what's the best thing to do ah?

Work hard, make more money, save and invest as usual. Nothing much we can do about this.

 

[Opps-gal]

you are quite the sg stocks supporter hahaha i sold off most of my sg stocks previously and i am in favor of another dip in overall market situation before re-loading up. sg stocks really like sleeping dragon many times, they have a super long drawn out accumulation mode before a strong rise (can possibly time it with a potential sg golden age situation or something if any, years down the road).

Sleeping is better than too much movement. Easier for heart.

 

[limster]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/17/uk-stock-index-ftse-100-closes-above-8000-for-the-first-time.html
Some good news for FTSE stock investors ... its like.... ATH when theres no news? how did it sneak up on us like that?

The 3 largest counters in my portfolio are all ETFs:
1. STI ETF
2. IWDA+VWRD (World ETF)
3. VUKE

As for individual stocks, my 3 largest holdings of individual stocks (exclude ETFs), 2 are UK stocks:
1. Lloyds
2. Capitaland Ascott (don't ask me how that happened. I have no idea until today it was no.2... I have too many counters to monitor...)
3. Aviva

 

[HardwareGuy314]

What is the broker you use for this type of global portfolio?

 

[Flare]

Something to think about, how resilient in our portfolio case the economy really turns into recession USA? all leading indicators are screaming so. Do not think it is bottom yet, so now mantra to me, cash is a position!

Used to be bag-holder as well for index funds/STI stocks etc since 2008, it works when i am young to pump money $$$ with salary.

Getting old already, so cannot afford to lose retirement wealth, thinking of defensive/fixed income .
Still i am hesitation as bonds are falling in tandem with stocks.

Target allocation:
50% healthcare or value stocks.
50% Cash (USD) , SSB/T bills