2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[limster]

Something to think about, how resilient in our portfolio case the economy really turns into recession USA? all leading indicators are screaming so. Do not think it is bottom yet, so now mantra to me, cash is a position!

Used to be bag-holder as well for index funds/STI stocks etc since 2008, it works when i am young to pump money $$$ with salary.

2008 was a great time to start investing. My investment journey more or less began in 2008 as well. I have been a bagholder for STI ETF since STI went below 3,000 in 2008 and repeated this in 2016 and 2020.

my experience with recessions is that the more people scream about it, the less likely that it will happen. also, wars rarely cause recession - when was the last recession that took place during a war? Manufacturing ammo needs a lot of raw materials and machinery, not to mention building ballons and $400,000 missiles to shoot down balloons. I am sad about the war but I am bullish on Australia!

 

[DevilPlate]

Getting old already, so cannot afford to lose retirement wealth, thinking of defensive/fixed income .
Still i am hesitation as bonds are falling in tandem with stocks.

Target allocation:
50% healthcare or value stocks.
50% Cash (USD) , SSB/T bills

Similar predicament lol

My target allocation:
World/US/EM ETF 20%
30% S-reits
10% SG blue chips dividend stocks
35% SSB/SGS, MBH, Bonds, FD, Cash
5% Gold/Silver

Current allocation:
World/US/EM ETF 10%
15% S-reits
5% SG blue chips dividend stocks
68% SSB, MBH, Bonds, FD, Cash
2% Gold/Silver

 

[elvintay07]

2008 was a great time to start investing. My investment journey more or less began in 2008 as well. I have been a bagholder for STI ETF since STI went below 3,000 in 2008 and repeated this in 2016 and 2020.

my experience with recessions is that the more people scream about it, the less likely that it will happen. also, wars rarely cause recession - when was the last recession that took place during a war? Manufacturing ammo needs a lot of raw materials and machinery, not to mention building ballons and $400,000 missiles to shoot down balloons. I am sad about the war but I am bullish on Australia!

So confirm no recession this year Ah limstar? Some say Powell confirm up interest till recession lei. Like 6%. If cannot then 7%. If still cannot then 10% …..

 

[DevilPlate]

So confirm no recession this year Ah limstar? Some say Powell confirm up interest till recession lei. Like 6%. If cannot then 7%. If still cannot then 10% …..

It is all about probability.

If you think 80% chance of hard landing, then hold 80% in cash and SSB/Tbills.

For me, I am 50% into my targeted equity allocation now. So I am bias and hope to see stock prices fall further

 

[limster]

So confirm no recession this year Ah limstar? Some say Powell confirm up interest till recession lei. Like 6%. If cannot then 7%. If still cannot then 10% …..

All the pre-emptive retrenchment by tech companies is a good sign that they are preparing for a recession.
I believe that the more we prepare for a recession, the less likely it will happen. The worst crashes occur because of overconfidence rather than overcaution.

I am still buying stocks every month.

The reason I am not buying so much is not because of recession fear, but because I feel that S&P500>4000 is a little bit expensive

Pls DYODD.

 

[DevilPlate]

All the pre-emptive retrenchment by tech companies is a good sign that they are preparing for a recession.
I believe that the more we prepare for a recession, the less likely it will happen. The worst crashes occur because of overconfidence rather than overcaution.

I am still buying stocks every month.

The reason I am not buying so much is not because of recession fear, but because I feel that S&P500>4000 is a little bit expensive

Pls DYODD.

Now actually the fear of NO landing haha
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/w...word-thats-all-about-inflation-145613863.html

 

[celtosaxon]

No landing?

I remember when the buzzword was transitory inflation… we see how that worked out.

 

[tatose]

Something to think about, how resilient in our portfolio case the economy really turns into recession USA? all leading indicators are screaming so. Do not think it is bottom yet, so now mantra to me, cash is a position!

Used to be bag-holder as well for index funds/STI stocks etc since 2008, it works when i am young to pump money $$$ with salary.

Getting old already, so cannot afford to lose retirement wealth, thinking of defensive/fixed income .
Still i am hesitation as bonds are falling in tandem with stocks.

Target allocation:
50% healthcare or value stocks.
50% Cash (USD) , SSB/T bills

Park in savings account and money market before you lock into high quality bonds with decent yield. Also can park into the 3 banks for 3-5 percent dividends.

 

[cosycatus]

its very interesting but I would not normally associate Japan with dividends. I may be wrong because the website says the 12m trailing yield is a mouth-watering 6.6%!

One of my biggest holdings is VDPX which is yielding 4.05% and expense ratio 0.15%. I'm happy with 4%. I wouldn't actually mind getting IDAP if only ishares would get that expense ratio down.....

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/...apan-ucits-etf-usd-distributing/distributions

Do vdpx have wht?

 

[limster]

The dividends declared by Irish domiciled LSE listed ETFs, such as VDPX and VWRD are not subject to WHT.

 

[TehSi99]

All the pre-emptive retrenchment by tech companies is a good sign that they are preparing for a recession.
I believe that the more we prepare for a recession, the less likely it will happen. The worst crashes occur because of overconfidence rather than overcaution.

I am still buying stocks every month.

The reason I am not buying so much is not because of recession fear, but because I feel that S&P500>4000 is a little bit expensive

Pls DYODD.

Are you looking into China or HK stocks?

 

[limster]

Are you looking into China or HK stocks?

I don't know how to stockpick China/HK stocks, so I stick to FSMOne RSP of 3010.HK and 2801.HK

Yesterday I bought Comfortdelgro and Capitaland Ascott.

 

[theMKR]

I don't know how to stockpick China/HK stocks, so I stick to FSMOne RSP of 3010.HK and 2801.HK

Yesterday I bought Comfortdelgro and Capitaland Ascott.

it seems like you kept buying and buying.

no exit strategy?

or you just treat it as your egg nest.

 

[limster]

it seems like you kept buying and buying.

no exit strategy?

or you just treat it as your egg nest.

Currently my passive income > current standard of living so I am financially independent. Then over that, I add my salary to this cashflow since I don't hate my job unlike most of the FIRE crowd.

This means that I have a sum of cash to invest/ reinvest every month. Since this is "extra" cash, I feel I can take a little more risk and buy stocks with it instead of just putting into FD/T-Bill.

I am terrible at selling. The last time I sold anything was Sembmarine at $0.139 because I never wanted those shares anyway- they were given free and I was 'forced' to subscribe to rights at $0.08.....

 

[theMKR]

Currently my passive income > current standard of living so I am financially independent. Then over that, I add my salary to this cashflow since I don't hate my job unlike most of the FIRE crowd.

This means that I have a sum of cash to invest/ reinvest every month. Since this is "extra" cash, I feel I can take a little more risk and buy stocks with it instead of just putting into FD/T-Bill.

I am terrible at selling. The last time I sold anything was Sembmarine at $0.139 because I never wanted those shares anyway- they were given free and I was 'forced' to subscribe to rights at $0.08.....

well done!

I dun have excess cash to invest, so my account received a lump sum investment in the past then stopped. actually I am beginning to plan how to slowly withdraw from it...

 

[limster]

well done!

I dun have excess cash to invest, so my account received a lump sum investment in the past then stopped. actually I am beginning to plan how to slowly withdraw from it...

Yes you need to ensure a safe withdrawal rate so that the lump sum lasts as long as you need it.

I prefer not to withdraw as that would mean selling and I'm bad at that. So I guess thats why I like dividends.

 

[theMKR]

Yes you need to ensure a safe withdrawal rate so that the lump sum lasts as long as you need it.

I prefer not to withdraw as that would mean selling and I'm bad at that. So I guess thats why I like dividends.

actually I am quite the gambler....
I have lost the equivalent of 3 years of my annual income gambling on 20dte - 0dte options
2.5 years of my annual income gambling on futures algo trading research

my plan is to withdraw until my net deposit/withdrawal is negative. then I can feel comfortable playing the remaining funds, I can withdraw now, but then my account would be quite pathetic to grow and might as well close it down.

but I already paid so much "tuition fees", I cant really justify myself to stop....

I am always amazed at people who can invest long term, DCA and dividend warriors..... the self control is amazing...

actually the thread on the psyche on trading suits me lolx......

 

[stanlawj]

actually I am quite the gambler....
I have lost the equivalent of 3 years of my annual income gambling on 20dte - 0dte options
2.5 years of my annual income gambling on futures algo trading research

my plan is to withdraw until my net deposit/withdrawal is negative. then I can feel comfortable playing the remaining funds, I can withdraw now, but then my account would be quite pathetic to grow and might as well close it down.

but I already paid so much "tuition fees", I cant really justify myself to stop....

I am always amazed at people who can invest long term, DCA and dividend warriors..... the self control is amazing...

actually the thread on the psyche on trading suits me lolx......

The solution is quite simple. Only risk 1% of capital on any trade at a time. If you lose more than 8 times consecutively, change strategy. If you lose more than 20%, stop and find a teacher.

Maybe, time to find a teacher? All the past losses are sort of an investment in your learning. You still need to continue investing in yourself, but change how you do it.

 

[theMKR]

The solution is quite simple. Only risk 1% of capital on any trade at a time. If you lose more than 8 times consecutively, change strategy. If you lose more than 20%, stop and find a teacher.

Maybe, time to find a teacher? All the past losses are sort of an investment in your learning. You still need to continue investing in yourself, but change how you do it.

Actually I did research on this since 2018, I always wondered why no guru post their trading p/l

Granted, gurus doesnt mean will win, since some luck element is involved.....

I would consider the comms fees as my "tuition fees" and my "losses" as punishment
Actually the amount of time I have put in, might be the most expensive resource of all... I might as well go code some random projects lolx

 

[churnmaster]

Actually I did research on this since 2018, I always wondered why no guru post their trading p/l

Granted, gurus doesnt mean will win, since some luck element is involved.....

I would consider the comms fees as my "tuition fees" and my "losses" as punishment
Actually the amount of time I have put in, might be the most expensive resource of all... I might as well go code some random projects lolx

Read the book -

The trader’s pendulum : the 10 habits of highly successful traders

A well written book and should help you figure out where you are going wrong. Once you correct those mistakes, you should see positive results. In fact the book talks about two amateur traders and their initial struggles followed by eventual success. Your case seems to be similar to the guy in the story.