2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[limster]

what's sharpe ratio? i only know shopee

have you heard of google or ChatGPT? or you only know shopee?

 

[revhappy]

 

[direbmem]

You should read the comments to the tweet

 

[DevilPlate]

How about you have $40k right from the start?
Time the market or DCA 2k every year lol

 

[theMKR]

prefect timing vs bad timing difference looks suspicious

 

[revhappy]

How about you have $40k right from the start?
Time the market or DCA 2k every year lol

I think that is a problem. Most DCA proponents base their formula around investing as soon as you receive your salary. Large lumpsum deployment is always tricky.

Personally if I suddenly received 1million cash, I would just decide on an allocation ratio target for example 50:50. Then I would just take 2 years to reach that target, by DCA every month.

 

[limster]

Wow, there is now a cheaper option than VWRA/VWRD in FSMOne
For FSMOne Diamond+ members, you have access to the Ireland domiciled Vanguard Global fund with zero comms/sales charge, zero platform fee, and lower expese ratio than VWRA. Minimum investment is only $1,000 and subsequent investments you can add as little as $100. While the factsheet says min investment is $1,000,000, FSMOne can sell you in bits of $1,000

One risk is that FSMOne later says the zero platform fee for Diamond+ is only a temporary promo, and reintroduce platform fees, because I'm not sure if I can transfer Vanguard funds to another custodian like IBKR...

 

[boringLife-]

I think that is a problem. Most DCA proponents base their formula around investing as soon as you receive your salary. Large lumpsum deployment is always tricky.

Personally if I suddenly received 1million cash, I would just decide on an allocation ratio target for example 50:50. Then I would just take 2 years to reach that target, by DCA every month.

That is what I did. And I ended up deploying my entire bonus received which is 12 times my monthly dca amount into IWDA at 88. Until now I have not recovered from it despite continuing to dca.

 

[DevilPlate]

That is what I did. And I ended up deploying my entire bonus received which is 12 times my monthly dca amount into IWDA at 88. Until now I have not recovered from it despite continuing to dca.

Lump sum investing requires some patience & market timing.

DCA only work if you DCA same amount regularly for a long period of time (20-30 years)

 

[DevilPlate]

I think that is a problem. Most DCA proponents base their formula around investing as soon as you receive your salary. Large lumpsum deployment is always tricky.

Personally if I suddenly received 1million cash, I would just decide on an allocation ratio target for example 50:50. Then I would just take 2 years to reach that target, by DCA every month.

Very risky....2 years period is very short. Imagine DCAing during a bull market and then crash on the 3rd year LOL

Let say 2020 till date, 50:50 allocation cannot save you as bonds and equities fall together.

Lump sum investing requires patience and market timing.
It is pretty common to have 1-2M cash proceeds if one divest their property for eg.

 

[churnmaster]

individual C would have a higher sharpe ratio and overall more profit.

but investor A would be the better trader, because; yolottmktrbbq

You are right. Individual C has a better risk adjusted return and in this example a better return as compared to the other 2 individuals.

For long term success, even if you start out as individual A, you have to eventually transition to individual C.

 

[churnmaster]

That is what I did. And I ended up deploying my entire bonus received which is 12 times my monthly dca amount into IWDA at 88. Until now I have not recovered from it despite continuing to dca.

There’s another investor who started DCAing in IWDA in Apr 2020 and has been underwater since Mar 2022. The challenge being the averages have trended lower for the last 15 odd months and you never know when they will start trending higher.

 

[tatose]

There’s another investor who started DCAing in IWDA in Apr 2020 and has been underwater since Mar 2022. The challenge being the averages have trended lower for the last 15 odd months and you never know when they will start trending higher.

Those SWRD/IWDA/CSPX thingy needs alot of years to average out. If you DCA, need to be disciplined.

 

[limster]

If you DCA, need to be disciplined.

How about regular investing or trading... need to be disciplined also?

 

[d5dude]

Very risky....2 years period is very short. Imagine DCAing during a bull market and then crash on the 3rd year LOL

Let say 2020 till date, 50:50 allocation cannot save you as bonds and equities fall together.

Lump sum investing requires patience and market timing.
It is pretty common to have 1-2M cash proceeds if one divest their property for eg.

S&P500 is still up 28% (total return and in SGD terms) since Jan 2020 (pre covid crash), IWDA is also up a respectable 25% so stocks are broadly higher since 2020, only bonds are down because they were in a massive bubble due to central bank buying.

 

[d5dude]

There’s another investor who started DCAing in IWDA in Apr 2020 and has been underwater since Mar 2022. The challenge being the averages have trended lower for the last 15 odd months and you never know when they will start trending higher.

Its not possible to be underwater on IWDA since Apr 2020 because IWDA is up over 50% from those levels, unless he was not truly DCA'ing i.e he bought more shares as markets went higher.

 

[theMKR]

You are right. Individual C has a better risk adjusted return and in this example a better return as compared to the other 2 individuals.

For long term success, even if you start out as individual A, you have to eventually transition to individual C.

individual C is too slow..... its like buying fixed deposits now....

or those china ppty bonds at 11%

 

[theMKR]

S&P500 is still up 28% (total return and in SGD terms) since Jan 2020 (pre covid crash), IWDA is also up a respectable 25% so stocks are broadly higher since 2020, only bonds are down because they were in a massive bubble due to central bank buying.

but 28% over 2years is very slow
poor investors cant get rich......

 

[d5dude]

but 28% over 2years is very slow
poor investors cant get rich......

Its actually not bad if you compound it for 30 years, which is basically the primary objective of passive investors, who are usually not people who are looking to turn 10k into 10m in 2 years.

Active management can make one very rich thru picking the right 20 bagger stock and market timing, but it can also make one very poor, statistically the latter is far more probable... also dun forget the fact that active management consumes TIME, which can be used to generate income or for other leisure activities, there is an opportunity cost here.

 

[limster]

rather than discuss in the abstract, I have started monthly DCA of 3 counters:
Comfort Delgro
Capitaland Ascott Trust
Singtel.

At the end of the year, we'll know whether I crashed and burned!