2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[revhappy]

I just bit the bullet and bought into 2 China funds:
1) FSSA Regional China fund
2) JPM China A share opportunities fund

I bought via endowus and put 50k in each fund. Kind of an experiment as China bottomed last Oct and then it jumped with the reopening story and now has cooled down a bit.

@limster @d9_lives

 

[homer123]

Monthly paying ETF listed on London Stock Exchange.​

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/monthly-dividends.py
@limster

 

[limster]

I just bit the bullet and bought into 2 China funds:
1) FSSA Regional China fund
2) JPM China A share opportunities fund

I bought via endowus and put 50k in each fund. Kind of an experiment as China bottomed last Oct and then it jumped with the reopening story and now has cooled down a bit.

@limster @d9_lives

The A shares fund is pretty high risk - the regional china fund, the fund manager at least has the discretion to move shares between China/HK/Taiwan (i.e. 'regional' china), but A shares has to be all in. But there is probably more upside than downside so definitely worth a punt

I am feeling like I should just deploy one more batch of cash to S&P500 as there is a chance that the 'range' for S&P500 is slowly grinding upwards.

 

[aurvandil]

I just bit the bullet and bought into 2 China funds:
1) FSSA Regional China fund
2) JPM China A share opportunities fund

I bought via endowus and put 50k in each fund. Kind of an experiment as China bottomed last Oct and then it jumped with the reopening story and now has cooled down a bit.

@limster @d9_lives

Increasing signs China is going the way of Japan. I was there when the Japan bubble burst. Eerily similar ...

 

[rider83]

We could experience a full blow of the global economic slowdown in Q3.

I prefer keeping cash now.

The commodity sector has seen a strong money outflow agri and more recently, gold. USD seems to be in demand and has gained upside. It feels familiarly strange this May trading as despite all the pull out in funds, stock market is pretty much support and VIX is going lower. Seeing these signs, I can't help to think US may just go into default on 1st Jun for both economic and politic reasons

 

[d5dude]

About time for my mid year rebalancing but it looks like I wont need to do anything, very good year so far.

 

[MrHighlander]

Bleeding heavily on China/HK ETFs

Feel damn sian

 

[revhappy]

Increasing signs China is going the way of Japan. I was there when the Japan bubble burst. Eerily similar ...

What are the similarities? Nikkei I believe had a blow off top and then stabilised around 18k? I watched Nick Leeson's movie The Rogue trader and the Nikkei 18k was shown on the screen so many times. I believe Shanghai composite had a blow off top around 2016 of 6k, but since then has been around 3k. If you buy at these levels, it is not like bubble valuations.

 

[aurvandil]

What are the similarities? Nikkei I believe had a blow off top and then stabilised around 18k? I watched Nick Leeson's movie The Rogue trader and the Nikkei 18k was shown on the screen so many times. I believe Shanghai composite had a blow off top around 2016 of 6k, but since then has been around 3k. If you buy at these levels, it is not like bubble valuations.

The elevated Nikkei was a result of the real estate bubble. That bubble was the reason behind the miraculous GDP growth rates Japan recorded during most of the 1980s. When the bubble burst, things fell back to earth. They were able to prevent a financial collapse but the engine driving the Japanese economic machine basically broke and never came back. This led to the long period of stagnation despite QE that went all the way to negative interest rates.

China's real estate bubble has just burst. Like Japan, they seem to have managed to contain it. The mal-investment however looks much more serious than Japan. Without real estate to push things along, my expectation is that we are likely to see stagnation like Japan.

 

[limster]

Good move. It will easily go back to $80!

I bought WQDV today. Will buy IWDA at 74.99.

I've shared my target prices in other posts, most recently I shared my IWDA target price of $75.
If lower than $75, I'm accumulating. After it goes back above $75, I stop buying.

I also shared my targets for FTSE100 - 6500 is a good level for buying.

Whether my target price is right or wrong, I don't know, please DYODD. IWDA too early to tell because its currently $77... any gains can be wiped out easily. As for FTSE, if recession announced but still holding steady above 7,000, maybe my target price was accurate!

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/...ing-bear-market.6745358/page-3#post-141572545
Good to go back 1 year to May 2022 to see whether market has made any progress. From what I read, IWDA was under $75. Even though it was a good price, some always think it will go even lower, never buy

Those that DCA IWDA since May 2022 should be in the green today since IWDA is now $80.97, even if US$ is slightly weaker.

 

[bo_tak_chek_bbfa]

Regret not adding more lol

 

[hwmook]

What are the similarities? Nikkei I believe had a blow off top and then stabilised around 18k? I watched Nick Leeson's movie The Rogue trader and the Nikkei 18k was shown on the screen so many times. I believe Shanghai composite had a blow off top around 2016 of 6k, but since then has been around 3k. If you buy at these levels, it is not like bubble valuations.

Japan problem has always been the incredible property bubble which burst and took the whole economy with it. The same thing happened in China and the economy is in a really bad shape. I know first hand about China situation since my in laws are there. I personally won't put any money in China companies.

 

[elvintay07]

Bleeding heavily on China/HK ETFs

Feel damn sian

Don’t feel too bad because even the legendary Ray Dalio also got it wrong. Haha!

I am buying China today. My reasoning is if I buy china today, confirm safe because hang Seng tech etc already dropped so much. I love beaten sector.

 

[Mephist0pheLes]

Don’t feel too bad because even the legendary Ray Dalio also got it wrong. Haha!

I am buying China today. My reasoning is if I buy china today, confirm safe because hang Seng tech etc already dropped so much. I love beaten sector.

Xjp will be at the throne for the next 5 to 10 years. After seeing what he has done to the chinese economy, are u confident the next 10 years will turn for the better?

 

[rider83]

The elevated Nikkei was a result of the real estate bubble. That bubble was the reason behind the miraculous GDP growth rates Japan recorded during most of the 1980s. When the bubble burst, things fell back to earth. They were able to prevent a financial collapse but the engine driving the Japanese economic machine basically broke and never came back. This led to the long period of stagnation despite QE that went all the way to negative interest rates.

China's real estate bubble has just burst. Like Japan, they seem to have managed to contain it. The mal-investment however looks much more serious than Japan. Without real estate to push things along, my expectation is that we are likely to see stagnation like Japan.

I am leaning to the side that China's real estate is in trouble now but then the news has been unusually subtle about this, as if it is trying to prevent market crash...... before debt ceiling deadline.

As I mentioned above, funds are agressively pulling out of commodities and keeping cash, something is cooking

 

[DevilPlate]

Don’t feel too bad because even the legendary Ray Dalio also got it wrong. Haha!

I am buying China today. My reasoning is if I buy china today, confirm safe because hang Seng tech etc already dropped so much. I love beaten sector.

U flip flop very fast sia.

Like those experts that shout crash but buying secretly LOL

 

[peterchan75]

Just remember, it can go even lower.
Here is BABA stock qty held by US based fund manager.

	21q2	21q3	21q4	22q1	22q2	22q3	22q4	23q1
BABA Qtr Volume	664,013,084	577,320,259	473,512,624	413,033,272	394,548,408	367,017,601	376,783,215	354,556,867
% change	74.4%​	86.9%​	82.0%​	87.2%​	95.5%​	93.0%​	102.7%​	94.1%​

When big corporation make decision to exit a market, they seldom revert its decision in a short period. I am confuse why Fidelity Int and some local banks say China's expected recovery after the 20th National Congress and XJP's 3rd term.

 

[Mephist0pheLes]

Just remember, it can go even lower.
Here is BABA stock qty held by US based fund manager.

	21q2	21q3	21q4	22q1	22q2	22q3	22q4	23q1
BABA Qtr Volume	664,013,084	577,320,259	473,512,624	413,033,272	394,548,408	367,017,601	376,783,215	354,556,867
% change	74.4%​	86.9%​	82.0%​	87.2%​	95.5%​	93.0%​	102.7%​	94.1%​

When big corporation make decision to exit a market, they seldom revert its decision in a short period. I am confuse why Fidelity Int and some local banks say China's expected recovery after the 20th National Congress and XJP's 3rd term.

They tot there will be a v shape recovery when china reopens following the national congress, like what many other countries experienced when they reopened. But they forgot to account for the fact that most of the other countries have generous payout during the pandemic and most exit the pandemic with healthy hsehold balance sheet. But ppl in china are mostly drained after the repeated lockdowns

 

[peterchan75]

They tot there will be a v shape recovery when china reopens following the national congress, like what many other countries experienced when they reopened. But they forgot to account for the fact that most of the other countries have generous payout during the pandemic and most exit the pandemic with healthy hsehold balance sheet. But ppl in china are mostly drained after the repeated lockdowns

OK their savings drained, but after lockdown no income?

 

[zeroX26]

I am leaning to the side that China's real estate is in trouble now but then the news has been unusually subtle about this, as if it is trying to prevent market crash...... before debt ceiling deadline.

As I mentioned above, funds are agressively pulling out of commodities and keeping cash, something is cooking

Got meh? Gold still high leh...