USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[stanlawj]

If you see what I'm seeing... the mortgage rates have stabilised. Which may lead to more new home sales.

 

[stanlawj]

CAD$ is super strong... if you know why, please enlighten us all.
Even strengthening against SGD.

I don't know what Powell said during the testimony to the Congress today, but bond market showing some uncertainty about the rate hike threat (MOVE is up), while bank stocks (KRE, XLF is steady) show relief.

 

[pcuser123]

CAD$ is super strong... if you know why, please enlighten us all.
Even strengthening against SGD.

I don't know what Powell said during the testimony to the Congress today, but bond market showing some uncertainty about the rate hike threat (MOVE is up), while bank stocks (KRE, XLF is steady) show relief.

Could it be Yuan carry trade? The cutting of prime rates and interest rate in China made Yuan carry trade attrractive. There are approx 1.7 million National Chinese in Canada vs about 500K in Singapore. The smart money is not flowing into the US, Europe and Australia may be because of geopolitical reasons. The South Korean Won appreciate quite a lot over the last 3 months. South Korea has about 700K PRCs.

 

[pcuser123]

If you see what I'm seeing... the mortgage rates have stabilised. Which may lead to more new home sales.

The market expected the US to cut or hold the rates. This has softened not only the US$ but also the lending rates. The market expects smart money to flow into equities and bonds, which explains why the equity and bond markets are stubborn and persistent, refusing to bow out.

 

[edwardZ]

for now, i am still on the side that the forces behind are building up their USD positions as they continue to push down the DXY (that is until i see some new early changes on the COT data again). Major moves like market dumps and pumps take quite a long time to prepare and develop anyway so i guess we might need to be annoyed for a longer period of time.

 

[stanlawj]

KRE getting toasted as 1-year & 2-year UST yield moving up. Looks like bond market starting to believe in Fed's threat.
Yeah, baby, let's bankrupt more regional banks... more liquidity injections via BTFP will be necessary.
Big tech moving up concurrently supports this view.

 

[stanlawj]

Property insider's view about the rate hikes on property market:

 

[pcuser123]

Expected Nasdaq to do a correction towards 13,200-13,400 but it came back alive last night, up about 1%. The US market is down but there is no sight of any serious downward movement at the moment.

 

[stanlawj]

Also next quarter Q3 2023 likely to see a major sell-off. Thanks to the excess call options manipulation up to date. Action, reaction.

 

[Mephist0pheLes]

good chance to those who miss the boat?

those that did not enter the market when it was -20% from ATH likely wont enter when it is jus -7%.

 

[apple459721]

 

[elvintay07]

those that did not enter the market when it was -20% from ATH likely wont enter when it is jus -7%.

Many idiots around. Inflation peaks, stock bottom and after that stock went up. Can go study the last 100 years. If u want market to crash to next low, then inflation needs to peak again. ! Not sure why these ppl everyday study the last 100 years trend study till so gong….

 

[DevilPlate]

Many idiots around. Inflation peaks, stock bottom and after that stock went up. Can go study the last 100 years. If u want market to crash to next low, then inflation needs to peak again. ! Not sure why these ppl everyday study the last 100 years trend study till so gong….

Look at the historical QQQ/SPY chart when you are in 2008 and you will be singing a very different story liao whahahahaha

In 2008, I look at the charts.....I was like wtf so depressing and complete waste of time siaaaa....And I also look at USD/SGD at that time....i was like what!!!???

Hindsight is always 20/20 my friend.....who knows what will be the next best pot of gold in the next 10-20 years.

 

[stanlawj]

Hot off the press.

Q: “How does the OCC explain the fact that despite the fastest Fed rate increases in 40 years, the public has heard no reports about massive losses on interest rate derivatives — despite the fact that this is a highly concentrated market? To express it another way, how could everybody have been on the correct side of these trades?”

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023...hiding-in-plain-sight-in-a-regulators-report/
“Bilaterally netted [net sum of all positive and negative fair values of contracts] current credit exposures shown in Table 16 are calculated and reported by each respective bank."

F**king US banks play cheat again.
Ownself report own positions.
Trillion$ interest rate derivatives contracts reduced to billions.

Excuse moi, if you open two positions, one long and one short with your broker, margin for both positions adds up according to the broker. Not net to be less.

These contracts are up to 5+ years. Which means, J Powell only needs to start cutting rates by 2025 (within < 5 years) then the banks are saved.

 

[elvintay07]

Hot off the press.

Q: “How does the OCC explain the fact that despite the fastest Fed rate increases in 40 years, the public has heard no reports about massive losses on interest rate derivatives — despite the fact that this is a highly concentrated market? To express it another way, how could everybody have been on the correct side of these trades?”

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023...hiding-in-plain-sight-in-a-regulators-report/
“Bilaterally netted [net sum of all positive and negative fair values of contracts] current credit exposures shown in Table 16 are calculated and reported by each respective bank."

F**king US banks play cheat again.
Ownself report own positions.
Trillion$ interest rate derivatives contracts reduced to billions.

Excuse moi, if you open two positions, one long and one short with your broker, margin for both positions adds up according to the broker. Not net to be less.

These contracts are up to 5+ years. Which means, J Powell only needs to start cutting rates by 2025 (within < 5 years) then the banks are saved.

This is provided no black swan to other sectors. US is playing cheat all these while mah. Kick cans down the road. Previously I say already, it is like if I take the world as 100%, it is a matter of who die first. If you are the sacrificed 20%, then jialat. The 80% will be stronger when things pick up.

 

[elvintay07]

Look at the historical QQQ/SPY chart when you are in 2008 and you will be singing a very different story liao whahahahaha

In 2008, I look at the charts.....I was like wtf so depressing and complete waste of time siaaaa....And I also look at USD/SGD at that time....i was like what!!!???

Hindsight is always 20/20 my friend.....who knows what will be the next best pot of gold in the next 10-20 years.

I don’t see like this la. If always focus on crash, then I think most ppl would park money in bank and don’t touch equities. I agree with u because if we see, the negative 60-80% makes our balls shrink. My spouse is never affected because she don’t see. I made some stupid mistake like buying Berkshire at low in 2008 then sell off in 2018-2019 due to the 10 years stock crash ******** which came didn’t come till 2020. After that all the ******** about end of mankind (we becomes extinct like dinosaur because Covid19 will kill everyone) etc, didn’t really showhand everything but good news also not fully affected as diverse to property in 2020. ! Looking back, really an idiot doing so much things where can shake leg like my spouse and still make money.

 

[DevilPlate]

I don’t see like this la. If always focus on crash, then I think most ppl would park money in bank and don’t touch equities. I agree with u because if we see, the negative 60-80% makes our balls shrink. My spouse is never affected because she don’t see. I made some stupid mistake like buying Berkshire at low in 2008 then sell off in 2018-2019 due to the 10 years stock crash ******** which came didn’t come till 2020. After that all the ******** about end of mankind (we becomes extinct like dinosaur because Covid19 will kill everyone) etc, didn’t really showhand everything but good news also not fully affected as diverse to property in 2020. ! Looking back, really an idiot doing so much things where can shake leg like my spouse and still make money.

I heard about Berkshire also but in 2000s i was thinking wah lau WB ah pek liao….if successor cui then how? 20 years later he is still alive!!!

 

[elvintay07]

I heard about Berkshire also but in 2000s i was thinking wah lau WB ah pek liao….if successor cui then how? 20 years later he is still alive!!!

Lol! My cousin sold because he thought both will die at 80+. Knn! 90+ they still strong. I feel it is company culture la. If can make money, I think always can make money.

 

[elvintay07]

Nobody believes this hike talk anymore.
Banks are toast. But one day, we'll end up with a FLASH CRASH in SP500 and NASDAQ.

Crash narration over liao la. I thought ppl say bank got both long and short position in margin. Which side also huat big big

 

[DevilPlate]

Lol! My cousin sold because he thought both will die at 80+. Knn! 90+ they still strong. I feel it is company culture la. If can make money, I think always can make money.

Doesn’t look very promising liao…..maybe WB time is over? I see his OXY also like going nowhere