2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[limster]

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/...ing-bear-market.6745358/page-3#post-141572545
Good to go back 1 year to May 2022 to see whether market has made any progress. From what I read, IWDA was under $75. Even though it was a good price, some always think it will go even lower, never buy

Those that DCA IWDA since May 2022 should be in the green today since IWDA is now $80.97, even if US$ is slightly weaker.

Its ok to buy IWDA at 88 in Jan 2022, you just had to continue DCA as the price went down, so your average price should be much lower.

IWDA $90!

 

[boringLife-]

IWDA $90!

So what to dca in 2024? My average price for iwda is 69 but I dont think I want to continue buying at 90

 

[limster]

I'm new to these bonds ETF.

What are the considerations on buying ID28 vs ID26?

Keen to get some 3-5 years IG bond ETFs with ~6% yields.

Thanks to the recent rally, YTM of ID28 has plunged to 4.9%

The rally means that I am getting capital gain from a bond fund, which is nice. And at my buying price, I am enjoying a 6% yield to maturity.

But it also means that I am not buying any more. 4.9% not attractive.

Its better to identify good value investments before their prices rally, rather than buying them after their prices increase. Then you can get good yield and margin of safety because you bought at a low buying price. Thats my strategy anyway

 

[Naqsaq]

So what to dca in 2024? My average price for iwda is 69 but I dont think I want to continue buying at 90

That defeats the whole purpose and the meaning of DCA. You're not Averaging the Dollar Cost if you keep switching what you buy.

DCA'ing a world index like IWDA is for people who don't consider being able to beat the market by stockpicking and/or timing the market. If you belong in this category, you should naturally be expecting continuous growth of the market. Thus, you should also be expecting a continuous stream of ATH's without changing your strategy.

Shopping around for ETF's is something very different.

 

[DevilPlate]

Thanks to the recent rally, YTM of ID28 has plunged to 4.9%

The rally means that I am getting capital gain from a bond fund, which is nice. And at my buying price, I am enjoying a 6% yield to maturity.

But it also means that I am not buying any more. 4.9% not attractive.

Its better to identify good value investments before their prices rally, rather than buying them after their prices increase. Then you can get good yield and margin of safety because you bought at a low buying price. Thats my strategy anyway

Ya la, market timing but here many DCA supporters.

 

[limster]

Ya la, market timing but here many DCA supporters.

actually its very interesting. a lot of DCA support for stocks and a lot of speculation in fixed income.

Go to the T-bill thread and you can see so many market timers trying to predict the next interest rate.

every month I bid 3.5% for T-bills to guarantee my allocation as T-bills are just a place to park cash.

A few basis points difference in a 6mth t-bill won't make me rich so I'm not going to waste time trying to place the 'best' bid. On the other, you see people celebrating if they get 4% t-bill, as if they bought Tesla for $50.

 

[DevilPlate]

actually its very interesting. a lot of DCA support for stocks and a lot of speculation in fixed income.

Go to the T-bill thread and you can see so many market timers trying to predict the next interest rate.

every month I bid 3.5% for T-bills to guarantee my allocation as T-bills are just a place to park cash.

A few basis points difference in a 6mth t-bill won't make me rich so I'm not going to waste time trying to place the 'best' bid. On the other, you see people celebrating if they get 4% t-bill, as if they bought Tesla for $50.

Because those Tbills folks mostly very risk adverse….every penny counts. Js like those who spend time looking for best credit card deals etc and tend to spend more without realising it hahaha

 

[limster]

2008 was a great time to start investing. My investment journey more or less began in 2008 as well. I have been a bagholder for STI ETF since STI went below 3,000 in 2008 and repeated this in 2016 and 2020.

my experience with recessions is that the more people scream about it, the less likely that it will happen. also, wars rarely cause recession - when was the last recession that took place during a war? Manufacturing ammo needs a lot of raw materials and machinery, not to mention building ballons and $400,000 missiles to shoot down balloons. I am sad about the war but I am bullish on Australia!

So confirm no recession this year Ah limstar? Some say Powell confirm up interest till recession lei. Like 6%. If cannot then 7%. If still cannot then 10% …..

Commentary: How were so many economists so wrong about the recession?​

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/com...y-recession-inflation-jobs-employment-4012621

Ok confirm!

 

[elvintay07]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/com...y-recession-inflation-jobs-employment-4012621

Ok confirm!

If today Yellen is in tech, probably she would have lost her job already. Quite buay kan all these economists. I don’t care economist or monkey, follow indian chief blindly quite dangerous. My wife DCA tech and world index. 2023 machiam home run for her. She added more small cap and healthcare last year. ! Maybe 2024 dark horse is healthcare/ small cap

 

[limster]

If today Yellen is in tech, probably she would have lost her job already. Quite buay kan all these economists. I don’t care economist or monkey, follow indian chief blindly quite dangerous. My wife DCA tech and world index. 2023 machiam home run for her. She added more small cap and healthcare last year. ! Maybe 2024 dark horse is healthcare/ small cap

congrats on your wife's disciplined DCA investing. Ignore all the noise and recession callers!

2024 I have also no idea what to do, I guess have to continue DCA VWRD and S&P500.

 

[elvintay07]

congrats on your wife's disciplined DCA investing. Ignore all the noise and recession callers!

2024 I have also no idea what to do, I guess have to continue DCA VWRD and S&P500.

She spend probably 1/10 the effort but trash me on performance. She added a bit of emerging market 5%. Perhaps aiming at the underperforming sectors.